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NUCLEAR
On This Date
A Nuclear Nightmare
The View From The Other Ground Zero
Japan, N. Korea Open Talks
Japan: No North Korea Ties if Nukes Being Developed
APEC leaders call on North Korea to give up nuclear arms
Text of APEC's N. Korea Statement
Al Qaeda nukes are reality, intelligence says
Journalist Cronkite warns against potential war
MILITARY
Aussie warships head to Gulf as Iraq tensions build
Barak: Iraq Trying to Make Bio Weapons
Anthrax Detector Developed to Secure Public Spaces
Defense shares not helped by budget
Drug treaty needed
Afghans Lead World Again in Poppy Crop
European Union Prepares for Terror
Report: Israel Army Digging Ditches
OAS intervenes in Venezuela
Mexico Tells Bush It Won't Support Iraq Resolution
US Withholds War Plans From Turkey
Turkey, in the Middle, Grows More Worried
U.S. Diplomat Killed in Jordan
Moscow hostages die from gas used in Russian rescue
Russians won't identify poison
Putin Vows No Deal with 'Terrorists' After Siege
Putin Giving Military Broader Power
Only 2 Slain by Rebels
West backs Russia over rescue tactics
Oil Near 11-Week Lows, U.S. Wants U.N. Vote on Iraq
US-British strategy on Iraq close to collapse
Reserve Call-Up for an Iraqi War May Equal 1991's
Pentagon Would Mobilize Reservists
Misleading the Nation About War
POLICE / PRISONERS / COURTS
FBI's Theory On Anthrax Is Doubted
Police raid 445 London homes, nab hundreds
Court to Hear Arguments in Case of U.S. Citizen Seized With Taliban
Southeast Asia Remains Fertile for Al Qaeda
Feds Want Terror Report Kept Secret
OTHER
Farmers turn to organic methods
ACTIVISTS
Archbishop warns on Iraq
-------- NUCLEAR
On This Date
Monday, October 28, 2002
Washington Post; Page C14
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A12328-2002Oct24?language=printer
The Cuban Missile Crisis ended when Soviet Prime Minister Nikita Khrushchev agreed to remove Russian missiles from Cuba (1962). Harvard College was founded in Massachusetts (1636). The Statue of Liberty was unveiled in New York Harbor (1886).
-------- india / pakistan
A Nuclear Nightmare
October 28, 2002
New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/28/opinion/L28STAN.html
To the Editor:
Our biggest nuclear nightmare is not Iraq or even North Korea, dangerous as those scenarios are (news article, Oct. 22).
I believe that our biggest nightmare is Pakistan.
What happens if the government comes under the control of Islamic radicals? What happens if the current leader, Pervez Musharraf, is overthrown?
Who controls that country's nuclear arsenal? What will India do? What will the United States do? Israel?
At least Iraq is run by a pragmatist who is mostly, it seems, interested in power politics. We should (and I hope we are) looking closely at Pakistan's stability. I hope that we have planned for this eventuality.
RONALD GANS
New York, Oct. 23, 2002
-------- japan
The View From The Other Ground Zero
By Doug Struck
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, October 28, 2002; Page C01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28517-2002Oct27?language=printer
TOKYO -- The awful fireball that engulfed Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, introducing the atomic age with a mushroom cloud, has for decades propelled the leaders of that southern Japanese city to preach against nuclear weapons.
Hiroshima's current mayor has taken the role a step further. At his annual speech at the anniversary of the bombing, Mayor Tadatoshi Akiba made international headlines with his biting criticism of American foreign policy and, by implication, its war on terrorism.
"The United States government has no right to force 'Pax Americana' on us, or to unilaterally determine the fate of the world," Akiba declared. The speech has brought a torrent of reaction -- most of it positive, he says -- in Japan, and a chill from the United States.
Akiba is not your average home-grown Japanese mayor; he spent nearly 20 years in the United States, most of that time as a mathematics professor at Tufts University.
"I am not anti-American," he insists. "I am basically sort of an American democracy believer. I am spreading the American message from Hiroshima."
Akiba recently described his circuitous route to become the representative and chief torchbearer for the city that itself symbolizes the horrors of nuclear war.
It is a role he wears with some discomfort. His sharp critique of America is uncharacteristic of Japan's polite society, and despite the support for his remarks, the mayor says he has felt the weight of disapproval from some countrymen.
"I didn't realize that the pressure not to criticize America was so strong," he acknowledges. "In Japanese society, where restraining oneself is a virtue, there is a strong tendency to restrain from criticizing the United States."
So he is a bit defensive, even snappish: "I did not criticize the United States. I simply stated the facts," he insists. He does not back away from the view. "Nobody has given the United States the right to determine the fate of the world unilaterally. Those are facts."
Akiba is on more practiced ground dealing with the question of whether his city's tragic history gives him a certain moral authority, and with the inevitable issue of moral equivalency between Japan's wartime aggression leading to Pearl Harbor and America's use of such destructive force on two cities of civilians.
His remarks "could be interpreted as holier-than-thou," he acknowledges. "I'm not taking that attitude. But I am focusing on the recognition factor. The name Hiroshima is known by many people.
"In the world at large, there hasn't been a very strong awareness of what the Hiroshima and Nagasaki experience actually means to the world. What I am talking about is the meaning of the lives of the people who had the experience," he says. "I feel it is my duty as mayor of Hiroshima to represent those voices."
Akiba counts one of his first experiences the memory, as a 3-year-old, of the Allies' incendiary bombing of Tokyo, where he was born, in the final year of World War II. "It was terrifying but beautiful at night. I remember that."
When he reached high school, he went to the United States as a 17-year-old high school exchange student. Japan's own treatment of the war was to try to put the experience behind it quickly, with little pause to ponder blame. The approach has fostered a strain of victimization about the war, and particularly about the atomic bombings. Even today, small children in Japan are shown frightening movies depicting the Americans bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki, with no explanation of the context. Akiba says he found the reverse of that in America.
The attitude he found in America was that "the A-bomb was something God gave the Americans and the evil Japanese were punished justly by the nuclear weapons. It was quite a shock to me."
But he was not deterred from pursuing an academic career in the United States. He got his doctoral degree in mathematics at MIT in 1970 and began teaching at Tufts. He got married, and had a son in Boston in 1976, which he says started him "thinking about the future." His activism was born then, too.
"Just about that time, I heard on Boston radio a call-in show on whether the atomic bombing was right or wrong. Naturally, 90 percent of the callers said it was right.
"I had heard that before. But Boston? Places like Cambridge and Berkeley were supposed to be liberal cities with peaceniks. I was reminded again of the general tenor of the American society. I thought, for the future, to make sound judgments, at least they should know the facts."
On the summer breaks from the university, he began organizing trips for journalists to Hiroshima. For 10 years he accompanied them and acted as interpreter, hearing time and again the wrenching stories of the bombing survivors sought out by reporters.
But his frustration grew at the limits of that anecdotal approach. The academic in him felt there was no systematic effort to chronicle the Hiroshima story for history in a way, for example, that could be taught in a university course. Finally, in 1987, he concluded it was time to "write a book or two" about the subject, and he quit his job, left his family in the States and moved to Hiroshima.
He never wrote the books. He found himself detoured by a wave of a political revolt sweeping incumbents out of office, and in 1989 he was drafted by the Japanese socialist party to run for the Diet, Japan's national parliament.
"I'm not a socialist by ideology. Because of my education, I am a democrat. I believe in American democracy, and principles of the Declaration of Independence, and independence, and of Lincoln and Kennedy. I tried to change the Japanese national political scene somewhat, but it really didn't work out very well."
He spent 10 years in the Diet, an opposition member and critic of the ruling establishment that had survived the reformist wave and still controls the national government. When the previous mayor of Hiroshima stepped down, a frustrated Akiba quit the Diet -- and the socialist party -- to run and win in 1999.
Akiba says his job is concerned with the usual issues of a mayor of a city of 1.1 million, mainly how to boost its flagging economy. But he acknowledges that because of the bombing, which took a toll of 140,000 residents in 1945, and has since claimed 227,000, by the city's count -- "I am capable of talking to the rest of the world."
And if that conversation is critical of American supremacy in the world, and its use of military might, so be it.
"Hiroshima's primary concern is nuclear weapons. But the weapons are not used in a vacuum," he says. "Typically they are used in a war. So any statement about nuclear weapons has implications about war."
"What Hiroshima survivors are advocating is that no one else should go through this experience. Such an experience should be understood as a living Hell, where the living envy the dead. That precludes the concept of retaliation," he says.
A laudable goal, but what is the lesson for a modern world, particularly for America as it grapples with how to respond to the attack of Sept. 11?
"That's a rhetorical question that should go both ways. Instead of considering the U.S. as the center and asking someone to wear your shoes, the world is asking the Americans to wear their shoes," he says. The implication of the U.S. view "is that everyone should think like Americans. No decisions of that kind in the international arena should be left to the strongest, doing whatever that country pleases.
"When you are saying Saddam Hussein is a threat, and [debating] whether to bomb Iraq, you are basing your argument on the assumption that Saddam Hussein killed 3,000 people" at the Pentagon and World Trade Center, he says. "That's a big supposition."
As a legislator in 1991, Akiba traveled to Baghdad to help negotiate the release of three Japanese hostages taken by Hussein. It was an approach that should be used more, he contends.
"We didn't believe Saddam Hussein was a peace-loving leader. But our option was to seek every possible means, and we did succeed in negotiating with him," Akiba says. "I am proposing that we should seek all possible means, especially through the United Nations. Peaceful negotiations and other means have not been exhausted."
Is there any circumstance, he is asked, in which armed intervention is justified? Akiba pauses. There are limits to the license of his city's history, he concludes.
"Hiroshima is recognized worldwide because of the suffering Hiroshima has experienced," the mayor says. "We are not recognized because we know the answers to all these questions."
----
Japan, N. Korea Open Talks
By Eric Talmadge
Associated Press Writer
Monday, October 28, 2002; 11:02 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A30242-2002Oct28?language=printer
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia -- Vowing to push North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program and end an emotional tug-of-war over the fate of five Japanese citizens abducted decades ago, Japanese officials said Monday the "hurdle is very high" as both countries begin talks to establish diplomatic relations.
The talks, made possible by an unprecedented summit between the leaders of the two nations last month, mark a major breakthrough in relations between the closed communist state and its former colonial ruler.
The head of Japan's delegation, Katsunari Suzuki, acknowledged Monday the two-day talks that begin Tuesday in Malaysia will be difficult.
"The hurdle is very high," Suzuki said. "But we will do our utmost to take advantage of this door opened by the prime minister."
Tokyo refuses to normalize relations until the abduction and nuclear weapons issues are resolved.
"We hope to make appreciable progress," Suzuki said.
The top priority for Japan, he said, is the permanent return of five Japanese kidnapped by North Korean spies in 1978. Tokyo also wants North Korea to allow repatriation of the children of the five abductees.
The five are the only survivors of 13 confirmed abduction cases and are in Japan for their first homecoming, though they had to leave their seven children behind. The visit has become an emotional tug-of-war. North Korea had originally only intended for them to stay for a week or two, but Japan last week said they would remain indefinitely.
Agreement also was not likely on Japan's demand that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons program.
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi won a major political coup when North Korean leader Kim Jong Il reversed years of denials and acknowledged his country's agents had abducted Japanese in the late 1970s and early '80s. The abductees were used to train North Korean spies in Japanese language and culture, officials say.
Kim's confession opened the way for this week's talks, but normalizing relations appears to be a distant.
A similar round of talks broke down two years ago when North Korean delegates stormed out after angrily denying the abduction allegations. And the initial joy over the homecoming of the abductees has been replaced by a public backlash over news that at least eight others died.
Heightened international tensions over North Korea's recently revealed nuclear weapons program also put Japan in a delicate position, and threatened to once again derail the talks.
Koizumi said Monday the Kuala Lumpur talks will have a "great impact on peace and stability" in the region.
"We intend to make the talks comprehensive," he said in a speech at the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Mexico. "We will discuss the abduction issue and security, as well as problems of the past, the present, and the future."
Relatives of the abductees held a news conference in Tokyo Monday to seek hard bargaining for the survivors' permanent return.
Japan has joined the United States and South Korea in demanding that North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons program "in a prompt and verifiable manner." Japan was also expected to demand compensation from North Korea for the abductions and damage caused to Japanese Coast Guard vessels in a gunbattle last year with an alleged North Korean spy ship.
North Korea, which has recently shown signs of opening to the outside world in an attempt to win economic aid, will likely focus on compensation for Japan's 1910-45 colonization of the Korean Peninsula.
Japan, which cut off aid to the North two years ago, has balked at that. But at last month's summit, Koizumi apologized for the occupation and pledged an unspecified amount of economic aid for the North once relations are established.
----
Japan: No North Korea Ties if Nukes Being Developed
Reuters
Monday, October 28, 2002
By Linda Sieg
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28905-2002Oct28?language=printer
TOKYO (Reuters) - Showing solidarity with Washington, Japan's foreign minister said on Monday that Tokyo would not normalize ties with North Korea or give it economic aid unless Pyongyang scrapped its nuclear weapons program.
But Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi added that Japan -- which is eager for progress on the emotional issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea -- would do its best to keep Pyongyang engaged in dialogue.
"We are asking them to dismantle the program promptly and also in a verifiable manner," Kawaguchi said in an interview.
"Unless they do it quickly, we are saying that our talks will not move forward," she told Reuters, a day before Japan and North Korea were set to resume talks for the first time in two years on establishing diplomatic ties.
Japan has not, however, set a specific deadline for Pyongyang to respond to the demand to abandon its nuclear arms program, Kawaguchi said.
She also acknowledged that talking tough with Pyongyang carried risks, including the possibility of endangering discussions on the fate of five surviving abductees now visiting Japan and of their families back in North Korea.
"Of course, there is concern on the part of many people that, depending on the way that the negotiations go, we may have to incur some risk," said Kawaguchi, speaking in English.
"We do not know what sort of response North Korea will give, and that's a great uncertainty," she said.
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi laid the groundwork in September for a resumption of normalization talks when he won an unprecedented admission from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il that Pyongyang's agents had kidnapped Japanese citizens decades ago to help train spies.
North Korea later admitted to U.S. officials that it had violated a 1994 agreement to abandon its nuclear weapons program, raising regional tensions and complicating the outlook for Japan's talks on normalizing ties with its former colony.
TAKING THE CONSEQUENCES
Japanese, U.S. and South Korean leaders agreed in talks on Saturday to demand that Pyongyang dismantle its nuclear weapons program in a "prompt and verifiable manner."
President Bush, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean President Kim Dae-jung did not spell out the consequences of inaction at their meeting, which took place on the sidelines of an Asian-Pacific leaders summit.
One day later, though, they joined other Pacific Rim leaders in a statement warning Pyongyang that it could miss out on the economic benefits of regional cooperation if it failed to comply.
Echoing that sentiment, Kawaguchi said it was in North Korea's own interest to comply with the demand to scrap the nuclear weapons program.
"We feel that it's important for them to participate, and they will gain much by participating in the international community, and we would like them to do that," she said.
Kawaguchi steered clear of predicting whether Japan would break off talks if there was no clear response to Japan's demand during two days of meetings in Kuala Lumpur starting on Tuesday.
But she made it clear that Japan would not provide aid until the nuclear issue was resolved.
"We will not normalize our relations unless they dismantle their nuclear weapons development program and we will not give any economic assistance before we normalize, so that means we will not give any economic assistance unless they dismantle the program," Kawaguchi said.
HARMONISING STANCES
Kawaguchi denied that Koizumi and Kim Dae-jung, an ardent advocate of a "sunshine policy" of engagement with the North, might be out of tune with Bush on how tough a stance to take.
"We are standing together. There is no difference. We coordinate our actions. We exchange our views often, and we move together," she said.
But she said the abduction issue remained a top priority for Japan in its talks with North Korea -- in tandem with the nuclear arms program.
Tokyo is pressing for more information on eight Japanese kidnapped in the 1970s and 1980s who Pyongyang says are dead -- from suicide, illness or accident. Many Japanese believe that they are either still alive or the victims or foul play.
"What they (North Korea) have disclosed is not enough to make us feel they are telling the truth," Kawaguchi said.
Tokyo will also press for the seven children of five surviving abductees now visiting their homeland for the first time in a quarter century to be brought to Japan "so they can decide their future in a free environment," she said.
Japan decided not to send the five -- two couples and a woman, Hitomi Soga, whose husband is a former U.S. soldier who defected to North Korea in 1965 -- back to North Korea, as tentatively scheduled on October 28, after their families in Japan demanded that they stay.
The decision has put the abductees, worried about their families in North Korea, in a tough spot.
-------- korea
APEC leaders call on North Korea to give up nuclear arms
By Joseph Curl
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
October 28, 2002
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20021028-9781337.htm
LOS CABOS, Mexico - In a rare show of political unity, 21 world leaders yesterday demanded that North Korea "give up nuclear weapons," threatening economic consequences for the fragile communist nation but stopping short of a call for full sanctions.
On the closing day of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC), held at this seaside resort town, the leaders spoke with one voice about the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"We call upon the DPRK to visibly honor its commitment to give up nuclear weapons programs and reaffirm our commitment to ensure a peaceful resolution of this issue," the statement said.
The APEC nations, which include most countries that border on the Pacific Ocean, including Australia, Russia, Mexico, Canada and the United States, said North Korea must do away with its secret nuclear arsenal to secure peace in the region.
"We uphold that a nuclear weapons-free Korean Peninsula is important to the peace and stability of the Peninsula and Northeast Asia, and is also in the interests of all members of the region," the APEC statement said.
The statement fell short of the desires of the Bush administration, which had hoped APEC leaders would condemn the nuclear program and call for isolation of North Korea.
The statement followed one Saturday by President Bush, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean President Kim Dae-jung in which the three leaders agreed only to call upon Pyongyang to "dismantle this program in a prompt and verifiable manner."
Still, administration officials saw yesterday's statement as a first step toward further economic consequences should North Korea resist pressure to end its nuclear program.
"We note the potential for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to benefit economically from greater participation as a member of the Asia-Pacific community," the APEC statement said. "Such a prospect will rest upon a nuclear weapons-free status on the Korean Peninsula."
White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said that declaration, and another made Saturday by the leaders of South Korea and Japan, were forceful. In diplomatic language, "it doesn't get much stronger than what they did," he told reporters aboard Air Force One after the summit.
The statement concluded a short visit by Mr. Bush, who flew in Saturday and departed yesterday before lunch, even though he had been scheduled to join leaders there.
Though officials, including top ministers and even Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, pressed other leaders to support a U.S. resolution in the United Nations to authorize the use of force against Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, not a single one did.
Mexico's President Vicente Fox, whose country currently sits on the U.N. Security Council, appeared to go out of his way to voice opposition to the U.S. proposal at the United Nations.
Mr. Fox said that the APEC conference had a "general position" that would require "searching through the Security Council for consensus" and sending weapons inspectors to Iraq first before threatening military action.
Mr. Powell on Saturday voiced pessimism that the U.S. resolution would fail when it is voted on this week at the United Nations, the first Bush official to deliver such a warning.
In other APEC action, the leaders called terrorism a direct threat to trade liberalization and agreed to cooperate in the fight against it with "concrete steps" to protect and streamline the movement of goods, people and data.
They also agreed on a U.S.-crafted proposal to overhaul the Pacific Rim's tradeways, tightening security on millions of shipping containers, fortifying cockpit doors in airliners and strengthening customs cooperation.
In addition, the leaders called on the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to conduct assessments of countries' efforts to stop the flow of money to terrorists.
The leaders' statement also commended Russia, Indonesia and the Philippines for their "prompt and decisive efforts to find and bring the perpetrators, organizers and sponsors of terrorist acts to justice."
---
Text of APEC's N. Korea Statement
The Associated Press
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27351-2002Oct27.html
APEC leaders' statement on North Korea during their 10th annual summit, held this year in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico:
We note the potential for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to benefit economically from the greater participation as a member of the Asia-Pacific community. Such a prospect will rest upon a nuclear weapons-free status on the Korean peninsula. We reiterate our continued support for the nuclear non-proliferation regime. We uphold that a nuclear weapons-free Korean peninsula is important to the peace and stability of the peninsula and northeast Asia, and is also in the interests of all members of the region. We call upon the DPRK to visibly honor its commitment to give up nuclear weapons programs and reaffirm our commitment to ensure a peaceful resolution of this issue.
-------- terrorism
Al Qaeda nukes are reality, intelligence says
By Neil Doyle
SPECIAL TO THE WASHINGTON TIMES
October 28, 2002
http://www.washtimes.com/world/20021028-9543907.htm
LONDON - Soon after September 11 last year, the notion that al Qaeda might have nuclear weapons was largely dismissed by intelligence professionals.
It is, however, a working assumption in security circles now that the terror group does have nuclear capabilities. Al Qaeda's secret nuclear stash is assumed to be somewhere in Afghanistan, although finding it is proving to be as hard as locating Osama bin Laden.
The first clue came during Christmas, when low-grade uranium-238 was discovered in tunnels near a former al Qaeda base in Kandahar, Afghanistan.
U.S. officials said that enough material was found to make one "dirty" radiological bomb, which involves combining nuclear materials with conventional explosive to spread contamination over a wide area.
The black market in radioactive materials has been booming for some years, and the archives are littered with stories of smuggling.
In March 2000, for instance, customs officers in Uzbekistan stopped a truck, destined for Quetta in Pakistan, that was carrying 10 lead-lined containers filled with strontium-90, enough to manufacture scores of dirty bombs.
The uranium found in Kandahar is in theory suitable for a radiological weapon, but not a fission bomb.
That the retreating fighters from al Qaeda and Afghanistan's Taliban regime chose to leave this behind when they took to the mountains fueled suspicion that their nuclear crown jewels went with them.
Geoff Hoon, the British Defense secretary, hinted as much early this year, when he said: "We are certainly aware that he has some material that could contribute to a nuclear weapon."
There is no consensus among experts on whether al Qaeda possesses working nuclear warheads, as Osama bin Laden contended in an interview after September 11.
Rose Gottemoeller, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and assistant energy secretary for nonproliferation in the Clinton administration, said: "I believe that the chance that al Qaeda controls actual warheads is virtually nil.
"It is much more likely that they have acquired some nuclear materials, but here the range could be very wide: from depleted uranium or low-level radioactive sources [such as those used in smoke detectors], all the way up to weapons-usable material - highly enriched uranium or plutonium."
"I think it more likely that they have some kind of lower-level sources than weapons-grade material, but this cannot be excluded," Miss Gottemoeller added.
"The origins for the lower-level materials could be very broad, virtually worldwide; weapons-grade material is much more precious, therefore proliferating countries tend to hold on to it.
"It is possible such material could have come to him from a former Soviet nuclear facility, not only in Russia, but in Kazakhstan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, etc."
A minority of specialists holds that al Qaeda already may enjoy command and control over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal via close links with the country's Inter-Services Intelligence, the agency credited with creating the Taliban.
Others suggest that theft of military hardware is a more likely possibility. One former Soviet GRU (military intelligence) agent says he knows for certain that al Qaeda possesses small atomic warheads.
"Mossad [Israeli intelligence] reported that bin Laden bought tactical nuclear weapons from some former Soviet republics," he said. "They are not the suitcase-type bombs that people often refer to, but more the warhead-type munitions. These are the payloads of short-range missiles, torpedoes, and the like." He declined to elaborate.
Others believe that pilfering military warheads is unfeasible, but that al Qaeda might have bought some of Russia's missing Cold War-era "suitcase nukes" on the black market.
In 1997, the Red Army's former chief, Gen. Alexander Lebed, acknowledged that 84 such devices were missing from the military's inventory.
Atomic Demolitions Munitions (ADMs), as portable nuclear weapons are formally known, are miniaturized warheads that were developed by the United States during the Vietnam War. They were designed for use against key infrastructure targets, such as bridges and dams. The Soviets soon followed suit and produced their version in huge quantities.
They were secretly buried near targets in the West by specially trained GRU agents as part of a Soviet strategy to knock out key government and military targets and hamper response to a nuclear attack.
According to informed sources, these weapons constantly circulated around the world in diplomatic baggage, and large numbers were buried along Russia's borders for use as nuclear land mines in the event of invasion. They were often disguised as boulders.
Each has a yield of about 1 kiloton - equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT.
It has been estimated that one ADM could immediately kill 100,000 people if it exploded in a major city center, with hundreds of thousands dying from cancer in the fallout.
ADMs have a shelf life of about eight years, after which they need to be retrieved and sent to a laboratory for refurbishment.
One source said that a semi-skilled operative could set one off easily, given the right codes. They can be set to detonate using an built-in timer or can be triggered remotely with a mobile phone call.
Academics are not sure that terrorists have gotten their hands on ADMs, but few will rule out the possibility.
Robert Sherman, director of strategic security at the Federation of American Scientists, said that this is "more likely than getting a ballistic missile warhead."
Paul Rogers, professor and head of the Center for Peace Studies at the University of Bradford in Britain, said: "There were unconfirmed reports that one or two Soviet-era tactical nuclear weapons had got to Iran a few years ago. Apart from that, I do not have any evidence that al Qaeda has access to such weapons."
However, one senior Western intelligence contact is adamant that the terrorists do have a number of these weapons - nine, to be precise. The price on the deal is put at $30 million, plus 2 tons of opium per nuke.
"Reliable sources report that not only atomic munitions were sold by the Russian underworld and smuggled into [Central Asia] during the conflict between the U.S. and the Taliban, but that several Russian nuclear technicians were hired by the Islamic fundamentalists to try and make the weapons operational," the Western source said.
According to Mr. Rogers, an ADM would cause cataclysmic damage: "The effect of the [New York City World Trade Center] plane-fuel explosion and the gravitational forces of collapse of the two towers was about 600 tons of TNT equivalent, so an ADM would destroy a couple of city blocks, or a major bridge, or an airport terminal."
Western cities, however, may not be high on the target list if al Qaeda is holding these as weapons of final resort. The group may be planning to use them to achieve bin Laden's ultimate goal: the creation of an Islamic superstate.
This could be achieved by using nuclear weapons to destroy the oil industry in the Middle East and trigger an unprecedented global economic meltdown, according to a report published late last year by Decision Support Systems Inc., a private-sector intelligence and risk-management consultancy.
In a "limited number of strategic positions," a small nuclear device would expose the Middle East's oil infrastructure to massive radiation, with sand spreading fallout on a vast scale. In addition, hydrostatic shock waves transmitted through pipelines could destroy production and delivery facilities over wide areas.
With most of the world's oil reserves inaccessible, the United States no longer would have an economic interest in the region. And there is a precedent for such a plan: Iraq's attempt to destroy the oil fields in Kuwait during the 1991 Persian Gulf war.
Few experts doubt the feasibility of such a plan. Mr. Sherman said: "If you presume perfect accuracy - that is, hand placement within inches of where intended - there are very few objects that would not be severely damaged by a small nuke.
"I presume that someone with a detailed knowledge of the oil field could cause a cascading effect with great damage."
According to Mr. Rogers, the greatest threat lies further downstream in the production process. "Such warheads would have a limited effect against an oil field because well heads are normally quite dispersed but could do substantial damage to a refinery or a major pumping facility," he said.
Oil has been a sore point with bin Laden. Al Qaeda propaganda prior to September 11 accused the United States of "robbing all Muslims" of exactly $36.96 trillion by exploiting its oil interests in the Middle East. It issued a pamphlet providing a long and detailed breakdown of its calculations, explaining that this was why America was responsible for poverty in the region.
The pamphlet ends with a vow of revenge, and what appears to be a euphemistic reference of future intent: "O Muslims, the times are critical indeed. Seek the approval of Allah quickly, for this is imperative. Then it won't take as long for the American jinn [in Islamic tradition, a powerful spirit lower than an angel] to be put back into the bottle as it takes for the first light of dawn to turn into the break of day."
-------- us politics
Journalist Cronkite warns against potential war
By CHRISTOPHER FERRELL
Eagle Staff Writer
October 28, 2002
http://www.theeagle.com/aandmnews/102802cronkite.htm
Walter Cronkite, whose career as a journalist spanned six decades, speaks at Rudder Auditorium on Sunday afternoon.
Walter Cronkite, the veteran newsman who covered almost every major world event that took place during his six-decade career, on Sunday warned that if the United States takes action against Iraq without support from the United Nations it could set the stage for World War III.
"The threat from the White House is to go in anyway," Cronkite said. "Our only ally would probably be Great Britain. That is not good enough. I see the possibility if we do that of really setting forth World War III."
Cronkite spoke at Texas A&M University's Rudder Auditorium on Sunday afternoon as part of the Wiley Lecture Series. Donnis Baggett, editor and publisher of The Bryan-College Station Eagle, interviewed Cronkite, asking him about his views on issues including America's war on terrorism, the U.S. economy and the perception of the media's liberal bias.
Cronkite said he believes the best way to handle the situation with Iraq would be through a two-stage resolution adopted by the United Nations. It should first call for weapons inspections and then an invasion if inspectors are not allowed or they meet interference. Such a strategy could help the United States gain other allies, especially Russia and France, he said.
"The legitimacy of our actions would be endorsed through the United Nations," Cronkite said.
If the United States goes in without worldwide support, however, other countries in the region such as Iran and Pakistan could retaliate against the U.S., Cronkite said. He said the threat of nuclear exchanges between India and Pakistan could be increased if a conflict arises.
Cronkite, who began anchoring the CBS Evening News in 1962, said the country is at a very critical point in its history. The only other decade that compares, he said, is the 1960s, which saw the beginning of the Vietnam War, the civil rights movement come to the forefront and the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Robert Kennedy and civil rights leaders Martin Luther King Jr. and Medgar Evers.
"That was a tough 10 years," he said. "But this period, with the threat of war with Iraq on tap, economic difficulties and terrorism are something we must be terribly concerned about."
Cronkite said he fears Americans are learning less and less about what their government is doing, and worse, they do not seem to care.
He cited recent presidential elections that have seen less than half of registered voters go to the polls. The result has been leaders who are chosen by about a quarter of the electorate.
"That means we don't have a democracy," he said. "We've got an oligarchy here, not a democracy. Our democracy is in some danger if we don't concentrate on educating the populace."
Educating Americans should rest with the media, he said. But more often than not, nightly newscasts and the networks' magazine-style shows focus more on entertainment than hard news. Cronkite said this approach is the result of directives from the companies that own the networks to make things more "interesting."
He said the ability to get the news, especially during times of war, also is becoming more difficult.
Since the Vietnam War, Cronkite said, the media has not been allowed to take its cameras, pencils and notepads into the field with the soldiers to give an accurate account of what is happening.
During World War II, reporters were in fox holes, and during the Vietnam War they were on the battlefields.
In many cases during WWII, the reports would have to go through intelligence officers all the way up the ladder to London, where top military censors decided if the information could be released. If security reasons prevented its release, the news was held until the threat passed. But information was not kept from the American public.
Cronkite said Americans may have thought they got the full story during Operation Desert Storm, but the media was denied much of the type of access it had been granted in the past. "[In past conflicts], you wrote it to be the history," he said. "We have no history now of the Persian Gulf War. We have only what the military reporters wrote and that's what their bosses told them. That's not good enough."
Cronkite admitted that in some cases, such as the recent congressional report that outlined the country's homeland security weaknesses, he wonders whether or not reporting all the facts is in the country's best interest.
"It seems to me that as citizens, we should get this info so we can shout to Washington, 'Let's get this game going,'" he said. "But at the same time, there's a terrorist cell sitting there saying, 'That's how we do it.'"
But for a country's citizens to be truly free and the government to be held accountable, he said people must have a free press that gathers all the facts.
He said an example of the alternative would be a situation like what he witnessed after WWII, after the Nazi concentration camps were freed. The people who lived in nearby towns cried at the sights of the persecuted Jews and told reporters they had no idea of what was going on behind the walls of the camps.
Many were probably telling the truth, he said, but that did not make them any less responsible.
"They applauded as Hitler closed down the independent newspaper and television stations and only gave them his propaganda," Cronkite said. "When they did not rise up and say, 'Give us a free press,' they became just as guilty."
• Christopher Ferrell's e-mail address is cferrell@ theeagle.com.
-------- MILITARY
-------- australia
Aussie warships head to Gulf as Iraq tensions build
Monday October 28, 2002
AFP
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/021028/1/345ny.html
Two Australian warships left their homeport to join the multinational contingent enforcing sanctions on Iraq, as Washington kept up the pressure for possible military strikes on Baghdad.
The vessels will replace two other frigates, the Melbourne and Arunta, in the fourth rotation of Australian navy ship to the Gulf following the start of multinational monitoring of sea trade with Iraq last year.
A crowd of more than 400 people were on hand to see the frigates HMAS Anzac and HMAS Darwin head off for what the military described as a mission with "the international coalition against terrorism".
The Multinational Interception Force is tasked with inspecting merchant traffic transiting in and out of Iraq in accordance with UN sanctions against Baghdad.
But the Australian warships could also find themselves in a US-led military offensive if Baghdad refuses to meet Washington's conditions for revealing and destroying its alleged stockpile of weapons of mass destruction.
The UN security council has been haggling over the wording of a resolution on Iraq's weapons program, with France and Russia resisting US demands the document includes an automatic trigger for military action if Baghdad fails to comply with disarmament demands.
US President George W Bush indicated over the weekend that he was tiring of the debate and could press ahead with unilateral action.
"If the UN does not pass a resolution which holds him to account and that has consequences, then, as I have said in speech after speech after speech, if the UN won't act, if Saddam Hussein won't disarm, we will lead a coalition to disarm him," he said.
Australia's conservative government has indicated it would join any US-led strikes on Iraq, although Prime Minister John Howard reiterated at the weekend that he preferred a diplomatic solution to the standoff.
-------- biological weapons
Barak: Iraq Trying to Make Bio Weapons
October 28, 2002
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-US-Barak.html
NEW YORK (AP) -- Saddam Hussein tried to make weapons of anthrax and other deadly toxins, but he has limited means to deliver them, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak said Monday.
``They tried to weaponize anthrax and they tried to weaponize botulinum'' the bacterium that causes botulism, Barak said in an interview with The Associated Press. ``We know that they are working on a variety of biological agents as well as chemical (ones).''
Barak, who supports U.S. military action to topple Saddam, said Iraq has more weapons systems now than during the Gulf War, but can't deliver them as easily. He estimated that Iraq had between one and two dozen missiles capable of delivering the agents.
But Barak said Iraq faces roadblocks in any decision to use chemical or biological weapons.
``It doesn't make sense to use them in a way that will verify that (Iraq) violated inspections all along the years,'' said Barak. ``It's something that should be taken into account in regard to what Saddam might do if he's cornered.''
Barak did not provide specific evidence, but Iraq has admitted to U.N. inspectors that it produced 2,200 gallons of anthrax spores as well as the paralyzing poison that causes botulism. U.N. weapons inspectors have been unable to verify Iraq's claims of having destroyed all the anthrax.
Barak also argued for a different approach to Iran, another member of President Bush's ``axis of evil'' that is accused of having an active nuclear weapons program.
Iran could be deterred from developing their weapons programs if the United States attacks neighboring Iraq, speculated Barak.
``The (Iranian) nuclear program is there and the threat is there, but I think it makes sense to deal first with Iraq,'' said Barak.
Barak said Israel is ``better prepared'' than in the Gulf War when his country was hit by 39 Scud missiles fired from Iraq. Israel has begun inoculating emergency and security personnel and says it can quickly vaccinate its entire population.
Last week a senior Israeli government official vowed to use ``maximal restraint'' in a U.S. war with Iraq but maintained Israel's right to strike back if Iraq launches chemical or biological weapons. U.N. resolutions after the Gulf War required Iraq to destroy all of its Scuds and any other missiles with a range of greater than 95 miles.
--------
Anthrax Detector Developed to Secure Public Spaces
October 28, 2002
ENS
http://ens-news.com/ens/oct2002/2002-10-28-01.asp
PASADENA, California, A prototype alarm device that automatically scans the air for the presence of bacterial spores such as anthrax has been demonstrated by researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The system, similar to a smoke detector, is designed for continuous, unattended monitoring of spaces such as public facilities and commercial buildings.
The system sounds an alarm when an increase in spore concentration is detected by an ultraviolet light. A technician would then confirm the presence of anthrax spores with traditional analysis. The instrument response time is 15 minutes, fast enough to help prevent widespread contamination.
Ultraviolet light glows with greater intensity as concentration of bacterial spores increases. (Photo courtesy JPL)
Interest in development of a simple detection system became urgent after letters contaminated with anthrax spores killed five people in the United States last year. These crimes have not yet been solved.
Current methods of detecting bacterial spores which require a trained operator constantly on duty are too costly for widespread use.
Dr. Adrian Ponce, a chemist and senior member of the technical staff at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Elizabeth Lester, a senior in microbiology at Baylor University, performed the tests on the anthrax detector last summer. Their paper, published in the October 11 issue of "Engineering in Medicine and Biology" magazine, details their test results.
The idea for the anthrax detector arose when Lester, who is part Choctaw Indian, participated in a Caltech program that gives talented undergraduates from minority groups the opportunity to spend up to 10 weeks working with professional researchers. The program, called Minority Undergraduate Research Fellowships, brought Lester under the guidance of Dr. Ponce.
Elizabeth Lester operates the prototype spore detector.
Using harmless Bacillus subtilis spores, found worldwide in soils and on root vegetables, the two researchers aerosolized them to simulate an anthrax attack. During the tests, aerosolized spores were captured with an aerosol sampler and suspended in a solution, the researchers explain.
Suspended spores were ruptured with microwaves to release a chemical from inside the spores called dipicolinic acid, unique to bacterial spores. This dipicolinic acid instantly reacts with the chemical sensor in the solution.
Under ultraviolet light the sensor triggers a green luminescence, which appears more intense as the concentration of bacterial spores in the sample increases.
Lester has been inspired by the success of her collaboration with Dr. Ponce. "Through my opportunity to immerse myself into a research lab I have rediscovered my love for scientific research. I now plan to pursue a doctorate in bioengineering and further discoveries into the technologies used in everyday lives to improve the life one has," she says.
Described by Ponce and Lester as "simple and robust" the device they call an "anthrax smoke detector" may be available commercially as the result of an agreement JPL has entered into with Universal Detection Technology of Beverly Hills, California, a public company specializing in environmental monitoring technologies.
They will combine JPL spore detection technology with Universal's aerosol capture device to create a detector that is practical for use in large public spaces.
The partnership with Universal Detection Technology is possible through the Technology Affiliates Program, one of many commercial technology programs that permit transferring JPL knowledge to the private sector to benefit the general public. The automatic bacterial spore detector will permit continuous monitoring of public facilities such as airports, hospitals, schools, and government buildings to increase the level of security against biohazards.
"Having a technician continuously monitor the air for spores is like having the fire department live at your house to ensure that there is no fire," said Dr. Ponce. "What you want is a smoke detector, a device that continuously monitors the air for smoke, or in our case, bacterial spores."
-------- business
Defense shares not helped by budget
By Tim Lemke
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
October 28, 2002
http://www.washtimes.com/business/20021028-18755586.htm
President Bush's signing of a defense-budget increase did not inject much life into defense stocks last week, and shares of many companies were dragged down after news of falling income for pension funds.
The $355 billion defense bill for 2003 increases spending by more than $34 billion this year, with hefty increases for funding new fighter-plane programs and producing laser-guided bombs and missiles. But the budget was about $25 billion smaller than Mr. Bush's proposal, and analysts said any budget-related rise in price of defense stocks had already occurred earlier this year.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Defense Index rose 67 points, or 0.3 percent, after the signing Wednesday. Big defense firms, including Falls Church-based General Dynamics Corp., Bethesda-based Lockheed Martin Corp., and Northrop Grumman Corp. and Boeing Co. all saw shares fall.
Meanwhile, several defense companies said last week that pension plans would hurt earnings, even as they reported increased profits for the third quarter.
Raytheon Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. defense contractor, announced Wednesday that profits of $228 million (56 cents per share) compared with a net lost of $280 million (78 cents) during the same quarter last year. But the company said it would take a charge of as much as $2.5 billion because of stock losses in its pension plans and that 2003 earnings would be below some forecasts.
Lockheed Martin, the top U.S. defense firm, said Friday that net earnings rose from $213 million (50 cents per share) to $290 millon (64 cents) in the third quarter compared with last year. But the company said pension obligations this year would reach $100 million, after paying out $8 million last year.
The company projected that it will spend $150 million to $200 million in both 2002 and 2003 for the health care and life-insurance costs of its retirees. The announcement spooked some investors, and shares of the company slid $2.37, or 4 percent, Friday on the New York Stock Exchange.
Lockheed Martin's earnings increase came from newer programs such as the Joint Strike Fighter and F/A 22 aircraft, both of which will get more than twice as much funding in 2003. But analysts said those funding increases were forecast as far back as February and have already been valued into the company's stock.
"Management raised some of its projections, but we are already there," Merrill Lynch analyst Byron Callan said in a research note.
Boeing, whose shares have tumbled in the past year because of a slump in the commercial-airline sector, said earlier this month that it would get little or no income from pension investments next year, after earning $500 million this year and about $1 billion in 2001.
A war against Iraq could have some effect on shares of defense stocks, and Raytheon and Boeing are particularly poised for benefits because of their production of laser missiles and "smart bomb" kits. But a Reuters news agency poll of economists released yesterday said a short and decisive war on Iraq would have little effect on the U.S. economy as a whole. An increase in military expenditures would only serve to offset declines in spending and investments, economists said.
-------- drug war
[To reply - mailto:letters@washingtontimes.com]
Drug treaty needed
October 28, 2002
Washington Times
Embassy Row,
James Morrison
http://www.washtimes.com/world/20021028-75604193.htm
The United States wants a treaty with Ecuador to allow U.S. naval vessels to intercept boatloads of drugs and illegal migrants, according to the U.S. ambassador to Ecuador.
Ambassador Kristie Kenney told Reuters news agency that the United States is now powerless to stop suspicious boats unless it first notifies the Ecuadorian Foreign Ministry and waits for permission.
"If our Coast Guard sees a boat full of illegal migrants right now, we go through a cumbersome process of notification through foreign ministries, and an extraordinary amount of time can pass," she said.
"What we've said so far is we'd like to negotiate a treaty to cover these issues."
Mrs. Kenney also said Washington wants a new extradition treaty with Ecuador to replace an outdated one from the 19th century.
Cocaine smugglers from neighboring Colombia frequently cross through Ecuador to use its ports to ship drugs to the United States.
Illegal immigration has risen since the 1999 economic crisis that increased unemployment in the Andean nation of 12 million.
--------
Afghans Lead World Again in Poppy Crop
October 28, 2002
New York Times
By DAVID ROHDE
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/28/international/asia/28OPIU.html
KABUL, Afghanistan, Oct. 27 - Opium production in Afghanistan soared to near-record levels in 2002, making the war-ravaged country again the world's leading producer of the drug, according to a United Nations estimate released on Saturday.
United Nations officials blamed "the total collapse of law and order" in the country during the American military campaign to oust the Taliban in the fall of 2001 for the increase, not the country's new government.
Antonio Maria Costa, executive director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, said in Rome that the fledgling government of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, had tried to stem production, but needed more aid from the international community.
"These figures are not the manifestation of a failure of Afghan authorities," he said. "They can only be interpreted in the context of that country's realities of the past year."
The annual survey estimates that in 2002 Afghanistan will produce more than 3,700 tons of opium, which is used to produce heroin. That marks a huge increase over the 185 tons produced by the country in 2000, when the Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, issed an edict declaring the practice illegal.
Afghanistan produced a record 5,070 tons of opium in 1999, according to the survey.
Mr. Karzai's government announced an effort to pay farmers to allow government officials to destroy their opium crops earlier this year. But the program was thwarted by a lack of adequate money, violent demonstrations by farmers and the refusal of some local officials to destroy the crops.
Mr. Costa called on the international community to help strengthen Afghan antinarcotics agencies and finance programs that reward farmers for growing legal crops.
In addition to fueling addiction in Afghanistan and in Europe and the United States, cash from opium sales could help further destabilize Afghanistan itself. For years, rival warlords have fought over proceeds from the trade, which they use to pay and equip their own small private militias.
High prices for the lucrative crop may also have helped fuel demand this year. The report estimated that the roughly 3,700 tons produced in 2002 will net a record $1.2 billion. The Taliban's sharp cutback in opium production in 2000 sent the prices for the drug soaring worldwide.
The report found that 90 percent of the opium was produced in just five of the country's 32 provinces: Helmand in the south, Nangarhar in the east, Badakhshan in the north, and Oruzgan and Kandahar in the south, in order of production. All of those provinces are in areas where Mr. Karzai's weak central government has struggled to exert its authority.
-------- europe
European Union Prepares for Terror
October 28, 2002
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-EU-Terror-Training.html
CANJUERS, France (AP) -- Emergency response teams from across the European Union trained Monday as part of a drill in how to respond to terror attacks that employ chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons.
Dozens of rescue workers from Austria, Greece, Italy, Spain and Sweden joined 800 French forces at a military base in southern France for the second day of the exercises named ``Euratox 2002.''
The exercises, planned months ago, sought to test the ability of the EU's new crisis center, set up in Brussels, Belgium, after Sept. 11, to cope with an attack in which every member state could be solicited for help.
``The events of Sept. 11, Bali and recently the Moscow theater show that these threats are no longer fiction,'' Pia Brucella, head of the Civil Protection Unit at the European Commission, told reporters.
In Monday's drill, a helicopter flew over a sports stadium, and ``victims'' collapsed to the ground supposedly suffering under the effects of a highly concentrated mustard gas.
Their symptoms were detailed on tags hanging around their necks -- ``convulsions, loss of consciousness, troubled vision, breathing difficulties, burning throat.''
Rescue workers sweltering in head-to-toe biohazard suits moved in. Their first task -- to decide who can be saved and who must be left for dead.
The EU crisis center is responsible for coordinating access to national stocks of vaccines and antibiotics, hospital and emergency services across Europe, or finding specialized hospital beds for victims contaminated by radioactive substances.
But in a sign of the difficulties of cooperation between different European countries, equipment is not always compatible. Hoses from Italian fire trucks generally don't fit French fire hydrants, for example.
``Every country works with different material, it's a problem that we are trying to overcome here,'' said Natale Inzaghi, an Italian firefighter and one of 60 EU observers at the exercises.
Some of the drills -- such as the simulated explosion of a radioactive bomb in a cinema -- were hauntingly similar to a real event -- the use of gas by Russian special forces in a crowded theater in order to end a hostage crisis early Saturday, in the third day of the standoff with Chechen rebels.
The rebels stormed the theater on Wednesday during a performance, taking hundreds of hostages. Russian forces entered the theater Saturday to end the crisis, using a gas to incapacitate the rebels. The compound killed 116 hostages.
Inzaghi criticized the Russian medical response to the event.
``One should immediately provide oxygen to the victims and give them antidotes,'' he said. He added that the victims should have been decontaminated before being taken to hospital.
He pointed to a special tent erected near the sports field where Italian workers showered, dried, and covered the ``victims'' with fresh blankets.
Most rescue officials declined to comment on the theater raid in Moscow, saying the circumstances inside the building and the nature of the gas remained unclear.
-------- israel / palestine
Report: Israel Army Digging Ditches
October 28, 2002
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Israel-Army-Trenches.html
JERUSALEM (AP) -- The Israeli military is digging trenches around Jenin and Nablus, two West bank cities that have been hotbeds of Palestinian militants, according to an army magazine published this week.
The military spokesman's office could not immediately confirm the report, but the Palestinian governors of Nablus and Jenin confirmed Sunday that ditches were being dug around their towns.
Col. Yehuda Katorza, head of the Central Command's engineering unit, was quoted by the weekly Bamachane as saying the trenches are designed to keep Palestinians from driving explosives-laden vehicles from the towns to Israel.
The move was in line with previous policy, as Israel last year encircled part of the West Bank town of Jericho with trenches. But Katorza said previous efforts were ineffective because the army did not completely encircle the towns and Palestinians filled the ditches with dirt and drove over them.
The intention this time is to encircle the towns completely with larger ditches, he said, but the effort has been slowed by a lack of sufficient bulldozers.
Katorza noted that on Oct. 21, two Palestinians from Jenin blew up a car with about 220 pounds of explosives near a bus in northern Israel, killing 14 people. Digging around the town began some days before, but even to date it only partly is encircled by a 6-foot-wide trench.
The military also plans to encircle Nablus, the West Bank's largest city, with 34 miles of continuous trenches, but work is progressing slowly, Katorza said. With digging progressing only at the rate of 100 yards a day, only a half-mile has been completed, he said.
Since Mideast violence erupted two years ago, Israel has restricted hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, encircling their towns with military checkpoints and more recently occupying them and imposing strict curfews.
The Israelis say the measures are necessary to end the wave of terror attacks against them. But the Palestinians complain bitterly about the economically devastating travel restrictions, charging that they amount to collective punishment that only increases the motivation for revenge attacks.
``The Israelis are blocking every way for the Palestinians -- they have blocked every single road, even unpaved roads through the hills,'' said Nablus governor Mahmoud Aloul, referring to both the ditches and previously existing checkpoints. ``It's another collective punishment.''
Jenin governor Khaider Irshaid also confirmed that trenches were dug around the town, saying it ``has become an island surrounded by soldiers in every direction.''
Katorza admitted the trenches would not stop Palestinian attacks from leaving the towns and cities on foot.
``We have other plans for that,'' he said.
-------- latin america
OAS intervenes in Venezuela
By Mike Ceaser
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
October 28, 2002
http://www.washtimes.com/world/20021028-24174616.htm
CARACAS, Venezuela - The leader of the Organization of American States (OAS) arrived yesterday in a fresh attempt to end an increasingly bitter division between President Hugo Chavez and dissident military officers demanding his ouster.
OAS Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria failed in a similar conciliation effort early this month.
The officers, all implicated in the short-lived coup that ousted Mr. Chavez for two days in April and since stripped of their commands, lead several thousand demonstrators camped in a Caracas plaza demanding Mr. Chavez's resignation or an immediate referendum on his rule.
Last week, the 14 officers declared themselves in disobedience to the government and since have been backed by some 100 other officers, opposition political parties and the nation's largest union.
However, key military leaders have made repeated declarations of loyalty to the president.
The dissident officers and their supporters accuse Mr. Chavez of ruling autocratically, ruining this oil-rich nation's economy and trying to lead Venezuela into communism.
"The time has come to put an end to this tyranny, this dictatorship," said Gen. Enrique Medina Gomez.
Mr. Chavez first ignored the dissident officers, then called them "criminals" and accused them of planning another coup.
"Is it a democratic gesture to call on the military to disobey the president?" he asked.
Observers said the ongoing protest would keep Mr. Chavez on the defensive, but would not threaten his government.
"If [the dissident officers] lacked backing in April, when they were in charge, then how will they have it now that they've been expelled?" asked retired Gen. Alberto Mueller.
Saturday, the government interrupted television and radio to broadcast a series of speeches by military officers declaring their loyalty to the president and the constitution.
A judge has ordered the generals' detention, but authorities have not moved to arrest them.
The dissident officers have seized upon a clause in Mr. Chavez's own 1999 constitution permitting the people to disobey any government that behaves undemocratically or infringes human rights.
The dissidents say Mr. Chavez has done those things and demand his resignation or an immediate referendum on his rule.
The plaza demonstration is only the latest in a series of opposition actions over the past weeks, which have included a huge march through downtown and a one-day nationwide business strike.
A weak economy and high unemployment, as well as his own leftist rhetoric, have made Mr. Chavez many enemies here.
However, an estimated one-third of Venezuelans still support Mr. Chavez and his "revolution for the poor."
Despite their country's being the world's fifth-largest petroleum producer and a key oil supplier to the United States, two-thirds of Venezuelans are considered poor.
While the standoff has kept Venezuelans on edge, it is also a welcome innovation on a continent whose history is marked by bloody military coups, says Cesar Perez Vivas, leader of the opposition Christian Socialists Party.
"It is something unheard of," he said. "Traditionally, Latin militaries demonstrate with arms, but now they're doing it peacefully."
-------- mexico
THE U.N. DEBATE
Holding Swing Vote, Mexico Tells Bush It Won't Support Iraq Resolution U.S. Favors
October 28, 2002
New York Times
By TIM WEINER
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/28/international/americas/28MEXI.html
CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico, Oct. 27 - President Bush left a summit conference here today without a pledge from Mexico to support the American resolution in the United Nations Security Council to disarm Iraq.
Mexican officials made it clear that Mexico is siding with France in the debate at the United Nations. While the United States is demanding one resolution that includes a legal basis for the military action against Iraq, France wants two stages, authorizing force only when Baghdad fails to comply with weapons inspections.
Mexico is a crucial swing vote in the Security Council, and the lack of explicit support from President Fox is a setback to the United States in what American officials say will be the final days of the difficult deliberations.
Mr. Fox said Mexico's priority is to achieve a resolution with the broadest possible backing from the 15-nation Council.
"The crucial thing is collective action," he said a few hours after meeting for about 35 minutes with Mr. Bush, who seemed somewhat short-tempered after their discussion. American officials had expected that Mexico, one of the 10 nonpermanent members of the Council, would be what one called "an easy vote."
The lack of agreement on Iraq came as Mexico and the United States also reported scant progress of the bilateral agenda that Mr. Fox has been promoting, especially on his push for a broad immigration agreement.
Mr. Bush says he will "lead a coalition to disarm Iraq" unilaterally if the 15-member Security Council does not pass a strongly worded American resolution for inspecting and dismantling Iraq's weaponry. That proposal contains the implicit threat of immediate military action if Iraq resists.
France has said it does not want a confrontation with Washington but rather is striving to close the gap between their views in the final stage of the high-stakes negotiations.
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, who only recently was openly optimistic about the American resolution's prospects at the United Nations, said Saturday that a victory there "may evade us." He added, "We have reached the point where we have to make a few fundamental decisions" in the next few days.
A Security Council resolution must pass with at least 9 votes in favor and no negative vote from any of the five permanent members. Among the permanent Council members - the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China - only Britain unequivocally supports the American proposal. Among the 10 nonpermanent members, so far only five have clearly indicated they will vote with the United States. That leaves Mexico along with Ireland as pivotal swing votes.
Because of Mexico's close economic ties with the United States, and the personal friendship betwen President Fox and President Bush, American officials had expected Mexican cooperation.
But even a 9-to-6 resolution would be a diplomatic debacle for the United States, a senior Mexican official said, arguing that a split decision would send a signal of disunity and division.
The two nations made no progress in a series of meetings this week on other major issues that both draw them together and pull them apart, including trade and migration.
"We're about where we were - not any closer than we were before, not further," said Mexico's foreign minister, Jorge G. Casteñeda.
"What we want is a resolution that is approved by all 15 - or 14 - members of the Security Council," said Mr. Castañeda. "We think that's more important for the United States' cause." The 15th vote would be Syria's, but no one thinks it will vote against Iraq.
Unanimity, the members agree, would be a good thing. But none exists today.
France has circulated an informal alternative to the American resolution. Its text omits two crucial words from the American proposal, which would find Iraq in "material breach" of a number of past Security Council resolutions.
France and other nations consider that phrase a tripwire that would authorize the United States to decide whether to go to war with Iraq regardless of the results of weapon inspections.
While Mr. Bush, Secretary Powell and the national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, attended the 21-nation Asian Pacific Economic Conference here this weekend, Secretary Powell and the French foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, spoke several times by telephone, as did the American and French ambassadors to the United Nations, John D. Negroponte and Jean-David Levitte, diplomats said.
The United States and Mexico find themselves at an impasse as well, with little sign of progress or compromise on Mr. Fox's dream of an accord on migration. The extent to which that standoff may affect Mexico's position on Iraq is unclear. It is clearly cooling the relationship between the two nations.
Mr. Fox seeks some legal rights for more than three million undocumented Mexican immigrants in the United States, along with more visas and expanded guest-worker programs. He says implementation of those goals will benefit both the security and the economy of the United States.
On average, between 300 and 400 Mexican migrants die every year trying to cross the border. In January, when tariffs are lifted on a slew of heavily subsidized American farm products under the North American Free Trade Agreement, the flow of cheap American food and feed will become a flood, potentially swamping Mexican farmers and small businesses. Mexico says that may drive many more people north seeking work.
But Mr. Fox got nothing from President Bush, save a noncommittal response when he invited him for a state visit next year. "Time and circumstance have not allowed us to progress with the speed we want," Mr. Fox said.
-------- mideast
US Withholds War Plans From Turkey
October 28, 2002
Middle East Newsline
http://menewsline.com/stories/2002/october/10_28_2.html
ANKARA [MENL] -- The United States is said to have withheld from Turkey military plans for a war against Iraq.
Turkish officials said the U.S. refusal to discuss war plans has angered both the military and government in Ankara. They said this has increased Turkish suspicion of U.S. intentions concerning the future of Iraq and whether a Kurdish state will be established in northern Iraq.
Ankara wanted a discussion of details of the U.S. war plan during military talks over the last week with the United States. The talks included Central Command chief Gen. Tommy Franks and Defense Department officials.
But Turkey was not provided with any documents or significant details of the expected U.S. offensive. Officials said Ankara wants to know what role Turkish military bases would have in the offensive, the role of the Kurdish allies of the United States in northern Iraq and the operation of Iraqi oil fields after the toppling of the Saddam regime.
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THE ALLIES
Turkey, in the Middle, Grows More Worried Every Day About a U.S. Attack on Iraq
October 28, 2002
New York Times
By IAN FISHER
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/28/international/europe/28TURK.html
ISTANBUL, Oct. 27 - Barely a day goes by without Turkey's prime minister, Bulent Ecevit, saying just how little he wants a war with his neighbor Iraq. He complains about being "caught in the middle." He bluntly raises Turkey's importance to the United States, on the map and as the only Muslim country in NATO.
"We know that the United States cannot carry out this operation without us," he said last week. "That is why we are advising that it abandon the idea. We're telling Washington that we are worried about the matter."
In the end, there seems little doubt that Turkey, however reluctantly, would side with its big friend and patron. But months into the American drive for support against Iraq, Turkey's leaders are still withholding their wholehearted support, and their discomfort grows daily.
So unanimous are Turks against a war in Iraq that it has hardly been raised in the campaign for parliamentary elections on Nov. 3. The election looks certain to expel the coalition led by Mr. Ecevit in favor of an untried party with roots in political Islam, which worries many here as a threat to Turkey's secularism.
Still, even the leaders of that party, Justice and Development, repeat the same conflicted refrain: Yes, Saddam Hussein is a menace. Turkey, they say, will probably support the United States in the name of its long and broad friendship, as well as its own strategic interests.
But Turkey, concerned that war could worsen an already dire economy and inflict new problems of refugees and Kurdish separatism, is not eager to play the role Pakistan did in the war in Afghanistan.
"It is in the nature of Turks to be convinced easily but react when they realize that they have been cheated," warned Abdullah Gul, a top Justice and Development leader who is in the mix to become Turkey's next prime minister. "Therefore, Turkey should be listened to and understood over her interests and concerns."
So the real issue is not whether Turkey will ultimately go along in an operation against Iraq, say Turkish officials, analysts and diplomats. Rather it is salving the nation's worries to prevent any long-term damage to relations between the United States and Turkey, the kind of moderate Muslim country Washington would like to encourage.
"Both nations will take extreme care not to have an open conflict over what happens in Iraq," said Ilter Turan, a political science professor and a former rector at Istanbul Bilgi University. "But if the United States intervenes and if you have a prolonged struggle, a prolonged military role in Iraq, probably quite a number of problems might crop up."
The election has injected a further note of uncertainty in the form of the Justice and Development Party, which is currently drawing as much as 30 percent in the polls. The question mark is whether its leaders, though they have disavowed political Islam, will be any less of an ally to the United States, particularly on the question of Iraq.
Mr. Gul and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the party's popular leader, who have played down their pasts as Islamic activists, say the relationship would likely stay the same, and Mr. Gul has been quoted as saying that they would leave any decision on Iraq to Turkey's military. Most experts say they would have no choice, at least in the short term; in 1997, the military eased out the last Islamic-leaning party to govern Turkey.
Zeyno Baran, a fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said it was highly unlikely they would change the alliance with the United States. "Absolutely not," she said. "Because this will be the grounds for the military removing them."
With elections a week away, Turkish and American officials are reportedly deep in negotiations about an assault on Iraq and how the United States would safeguard Turkey's concerns. Last week, Gen. Tommy R. Franks, head of the United States Central Command, and Gen. Joseph W. Ralston, supreme allied commander in Europe, visited Turkey for talks with its top commanders. On Wednesday, President Bush called President Ahmet Necdet Sezer for a discussion the White House said covered the "United States-Turkey strategic partnership."
Officials from both nations say there has been no formal request, like a role for Turkish troops in a ground operation in Iraq or the use of air bases here, seen as indispensable for American bombing runs on Iraq. Several reports suggest that any plan might include having Turkey send thousands of troops into northern Iraq - in addition to the 2,000 to 5,000 already there chasing Kurdish rebels - to stem the flow of refugees or defeated Iraqi fighters.
Turkey, though, is decidedly wary, and officials say Washington is frustrated that it has withheld firmer support, partly out of worry that Mr. Hussein will take full advantage of disunity in the region.
But Turkey's own worries stretch back over a decade, to the last time it was asked to help in an attack on Iraq. Turkish officials complain that Operation Desert Storm cost tens of billions in dollars, in military expenses, trade with Iraq and lost revenue from tourism. The no-flight zone enforced since then over northern Iraq also led to what they believe is something close to an independent Kurdish state there, a longstanding worry for Turkey, with its own restive Kurdish population.
Government officials here complain loudly that they do not fully trust American assurances that there will be no actual Kurdish state and have even threatened to take Iraqi territory if Kurds seize the oil city of Kirkuk, which Turkey says is populated mostly by ethnic Turkmen.
But many experts say there is a greater worry about a new war: money. Turkey remains in a deep economic crisis, eased only recently and with pain through a new program with the International Monetary Fund. Many Turks see their real interest not in war with Iraq, but in talks to join the European Union, which this month spurned Turkey once again by not setting a firm date for talks on joining the organization.
If the United States wants Turkey's support, many here say, it must be sure Turkey does not lose again, and reportedly a financial package worth roughly $5 billion is being discussed. Some experts suggest that it would also help if the United States pushed the European Union to set a date for entrance talks at a meeting of ministers of the European Union in December. Iraq may, otherwise, remain a hard sell here.
"The country is already in trouble, and an external crisis is all we need," said Ahmet Atici, 37, who sat reading a book in his empty shoe store at an upscale mall in Ankara, the capital. "We have no customers. We close down with pitiful figures every night. So we should only be concerned about our own national interests."
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U.S. Diplomat Killed in Jordan
October 28, 2002
New York Times
By DANIEL J. WAKIN
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/28/international/middleeast/28CND-JORD.html
CAIRO, Oct. 28 - An American diplomat in Amman, Jordan, was fatally shot this morning outside his home, Jordanian and American officials said. While no one claimed responsibility, the killing immediately raised fears that it was a terrorist act aimed at the United States.
The victim was identified as Laurence Foley, 62, an official of the United States Agency for International Development, which has a large presence in Amman.
News reports said that as Mr. Foley was leaving for work at around 7:30 a.m., a gunman shot him repeatedly at close range in the garage of his villa, in what officials called a well-planned attack. Nearby residents said they heard nothing, and the police kept reporters away from the house.
Officials in Jordan, where security is generally strict and political assassinations are rare, refused to speculate on a motive and promised to investigate vigorously.
"This attack, regardless of its motives, is an attack on the country and its national security," the information minister, Mohammad Adwan, was quoted as saying by the state news agency, Petra.
Afterward, the embassy warned American citizens to "remain vigilant in view of threats to American interests," reinforcing an Oct. 13 alert to Americans abroad of possible dangers.
In September, the State Department said it had unconfirmed reports that Al Qaeda operatives were planning to kidnap American citizens in Jordan.
Political analysts also noted that the killing follows other strikes on Western interests this month, including the shooting of American soldiers in Kuwait and the attack on a French oil tanker off Yemen.
While Americans have not previously been targets in Jordan, which along with Egypt is the only Arab country to have a peace agreement with Israel, several Israelis have been victims. An Israeli businessman was slain in Mr. Foley's neighborhood last year, and two Israeli diplomats were wounded in 2000.
Anger among people in the region toward America has been rising at the prospect of an American attack on Iraq, and Jordan is no exception. Arab governments are in the delicate posture of having to demonstrate their opposition to the war for public consumption, while at the same time tacitly supporting the United States' aims.
In the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf war, Jordan supported President Saddam Hussein, its neighbor to the east. But not this time. It has sought to distance itself from the Iraqi president, and is allied with the United States. Nevertheless, Jordan is extremely wary about being seen to cooperate militarily.
"Jordan in 1990 is not Jordan 2002," Marwan al-Muasher, the foreign minister, told reporters recently. "We will not do anything to jeopardize our excellent relations with the United States."
Some in Jordan were not completely taken off guard by the killing, giving the heightened anti-American sentiment, which is also fueled by anger at the Israeli military incursion in the occupied territories of the West Bank and the stream of news reports about the killing and wounding of Palestinians.
"It's bad, but not unexpected, unfortunately," said Rami Khoury, a political analyst in Amman, of today's killing. "It's more or less what everybody's been warning about, but it's terrible when it happens to innocent people."
-------- russia / chechnya
Moscow hostages die from gas used in Russian rescue
Monday October 28,
AFP
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/021027/1/344vg.html
Russian health officials admitted that a gas used in a special forces operation that ended a Chechen hostage crisis had left 115 hostages dead, with dozens more seriously ill in hospital.
In a startling announcement, Moscow chief medical officer Andrei Seltsovsky said that only two hostages were shot dead by the Chechen rebels before the pre-dawn assault.
He told a news conference that 117 hostages had died so far but suggested that the toll could rise further, with 145 people in intensive care, 45 of whom were listed in serious condition, suffering from the after-effects of the powerful gas.
"Normally you don't die from inhaling such a substance," Seltsovsky was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying.
But Setsovsky noted that the hostages were in weak physical condition after their three-day ordeal. In total, 646 people remain in hospital, the doctor said.
Moscow chief anaesthaetist Yevgeny Yevdokimov described the gas as a "psychotropic" substance normally used as a general anaesthetic.
In high doses, it changes the basic functions of the body, possibly leading to a loss of consciousness and impairing breathing and blood circulation, he added.
Doctors had complained that they did not know how to treat the ailing because they had not been told what gas had been used.
More than 800 people had been held hostage since Wednesday by a gang of dynamite-strapped Chechen militants who stormed into the theater during a evening performance of a popular muscial and theatened to blow up the building.
All 50 Chechen hostage-takers, including women, were killed in the raid early Saturday that President Vladimir Putin described as a success in an address to the nation.
"We achieved the near impossible, saving hundreds, hundreds of people," Putin said. "We proved that Russia cannot be brought to its knees."
He acknowledged the high price paid for ending the crisis, saying: "Now I want to address the families and friends of those who died. We were not able to save everyone. Forgive us."
Russian authorities said that more than 750 people had been rescued, but since then the number of dead has continued to rise.
Anxious relatives kept vigil outside hospitals, desperately waiting to know if loved ones had made it through the ordeal.
Authorities refused to allow family members to enter the hospitals and did not provide lists of the survivors, keeping relatives in the dark about the fate of their missing children, husbands and wives.
"I appeal to everyone for help. We can't find him anywhere," one woman told NTV television, calling for news of here missing 18-year-old son. Kommersant newspaper said about 100 people were still unaccounted for.
According to the hostages, the rebels shot dead two men a few hours before the assault was launched.
Seltsovsky said that one of them had not died and was in intensive care.
A woman who tried to enter the theatre late Wednesday was shot dead by the Chechen hostage-takers.
A Dutch woman and a Kazakh teenager died from gas poisoning overnight, NTV channel reported quoting doctors. They were among four non-Russian hostages who have been confirmed dead, including an Austrian woman and a Belarussian woman.
The United States, which has two citizens missing and a third who is in hospital, has demanded information on the nature of the gas but has received no reply, a US embassy spokesman told AFP.
An AFP employee who was among those taken hostage said that none of the bodies of the dead or injured bore bullet wounds.
"They are not telling us anything about the nature of the gas," Oleg Zyogonov said by telephone from his hospital, adding: "I saw no bullet impact on the bodies."
He said hospital staff had forbidden him to talk to anybody and were monitoring his telephone conversation with the AFP office in Moscow.
"They forbade me to talk to you. A doctor is watching me," he said before hanging up.
Doctors who entered the theatre after the raid told local media that several hostages had died choking on their own vomit, a likely effect of the gas pumped into the building by Russian forces. The hostage-takers were aware enough to put up a good fight, one of the special service rescue units claimed Sunday.
Many of the Chechen guerrillas "were fully conscious, and we had to act very precisely, because we had no time," one trooper of the Alpha special service squad told reporters.
As soon as the rescue squads were in, they were greeted by a storm of gunfire, Alpha troopers said, adding that fierce resistance met them at the doorstep of every room that sheltered the hostage-takers.
Intelligence experts told Moskovsky Komsomolets paper that special forces did not expect the chemical agent to have such a powerful effect, and that it was more concentrated than they thought.
The experts added that Russian forces expected some 150 hostages to die in the raid.
As people laid flowers outside the theatre in southeast Moscow where the tragedy took place, Putin called a national day of mourning on Monday for the hostages who died.
Flags will be lowered all over the country to honour the dead, and broadcasters will cancel all entertainment programmes on radio and television.
Throughout the hostage crisis, Putin rejected the Chechens' demands for an end to Moscow's three-year army campaign in Chechnya.
Moscow has been bogged down in a bloody conflict in the breakaway Caucasus republic for three years that Putin has labelled an "anti-terrorism operation".
Putin has linked the Chechnya campaign to the anti-terror campaign launched by US President George W. Bush, who expressed his support for Putin during the crisis.
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Russians won't identify poison
By David McHugh
ASSOCIATED PRESS
October 28, 2002
http://www.washtimes.com/world/20021028-81928.htm
MOSCOW - Doctors said yesterday they still hadn't been told exactly what was in a mysterious knockout gas that killed 116 hostages after Russian special forces stormed a theater to free them from Chechen terrorists.
The chief Moscow city doctor said more than 150 former hostages remain in critical condition after the operation, which at first had been hailed as a triumphant rescue mission.
The doctor in charge of the city's poison unit said troops told medical authorities they had gassed the auditorium only after the approximately 750 hostages were brought out, most of them unconscious.
"But we didn't know the character of the gas," said Dr. Yevgeny Luzhnikov, head of the city's Department of Severe Poisoning. The substance was described as akin to compounds used in surgical anesthesia.
Dr. Andrei Seltsovsky, the chief city physician, said the gas affected hearts and lungs. He said he had no information when asked about reports that the compound could cause vomiting that would choke unconscious victims.
"In standard situations, the compound does not act as aggressively as it turned out to do," Dr. Seltsovsky said. "But it was used on people who were in a specific [extreme] situation for more than 50 hours. All of this naturally made the situation more difficult."
Approximately 750 hostages were taken Wednesday night when some 50 Muslim rebels stormed the theater during a popular musical. They demanded Russia declare an end to the war in Chechnya and begin withdrawing its troops.
The few dozen hostages who were well enough to be released yesterday could provide few clues on the nature of the gas.
"We knew something serious was going to happen" when the gas started seeping into the hot auditorium, said Mark Podlesny as he walked out of Veterans Hospital No. 1 near the theater.
"I lost consciousness. Yes, there was a strange smell," said Roma Shmakov, a 12-year-old actor in "Nord-Ost," the musical in progress when the gunmen burst in at 9:10 p.m. on Wednesday.
Use of the gas tainted the rescue mission's success, overlaying it with an aura of confusion and callousness. The impression was bolstered by scenes outside hospitals where the hostages were taken for treatment. Friends and family crowded the gates in effort to learn if relatives or loved ones were inside. Authorities gave out little information on hostages' identities, which hospital they were in or how they had fared.
Even diplomats had trouble getting information about the estimated 70 foreign citizens who were among the captives. U.S. consular officials searched city hospitals for one of the two American citizens known to have been in the theater. A second American was found recuperating in a city clinic. Two foreign women - one Dutch and one Austrian - were known to have died.
Only yesterday afternoon, more than 24 hours after the hostages were freed, did hospitals post complete or even partial lists of who they were holding. Visits still were prohibited. Some people outside the gates saw relatives waving to them from windows.
"They are hostages again," one visitor shouted to the armed guards at Hospital No. 13, where about half the captives were taken.
Most of those who left the hospitals hugged those meeting them, then hurried to get out of the chilling rain and avoid a pulsing crowd of reporters and cameras.
Those who stopped to talk gave accounts of the ordeal that sometimes contradicted the official version.
Mr. Podlesny questioned Russian television footage that showed the captors' corpses in the theater amid liquor bottles and syringes. "They didn't drink, didn't smoke, didn't swear. They were very disciplined," he said.
Both Mr. Podlesny and Georgy Vasilyev, the producer of "Nord-Ost," disputed Russian officials' statement that gunmen had begun shooting hostages before dawn, prompting special forces to start their assault.
A total of 118 hostages were known to have died since the Muslims stormed the theater: 116 from the effects of the gas, one young woman shot early in the standoff and one hostage shot Saturday morning shortly before the rescue raid.
President Vladimir Putin visited the special-forces troops yesterday to congratulate them on the mission and declared today a national day of mourning. As troops that had surrounded the building withdrew, Muscovites placed flowers at the perimeter.
Many of the 50 assailants killed in the rescue mission died after being shot in the head, apparently while unconscious from the gas. The Federal Security Service said three other gunmen were captured, and authorities searched the city for accomplices or gunmen who may have escaped.
The chief Moscow prosecutor, Mikhail Avdyukov, said yesterday three persons had been arrested in Moscow on suspicion of helping organize and carry out the raid, the Interfax news agency reported.
The attackers included 18 women, many of whom said they were war widows. The women had explosives strapped to their bodies, and mines were placed throughout the building. The terrorists threatened to blow up the theater unless Mr. Putin agreed to withdraw troops from mainly Muslim Chechnya
Russian forces pulled out of Chechnya after a devastating 1994-96 war that left separatists in charge. In the fall of 1999, Mr. Putin sent troops back in after rebels based in Chechnya attacked a neighboring region and apartment-building bombings blamed on the militants killed about 300 people.
In 1995 and 1996, rebels seized hundreds of hostages in two raids in southern Russia near Chechnya. Dozens of people died in both cases, many of them killed when Russian forces attacked the assailants.
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Putin Vows No Deal with 'Terrorists' After Siege
Reuters
Monday, October 28, 2002
By Oliver Bullough
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A29592-2002Oct28?language=printer
MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin focused on the threat to Russia from Chechen rebels Monday, vowing no deal with "terrorists," while his officials dodged questions about a lethal mystery gas used to end the Moscow theater siege.
Hours after he spoke, Tass reported a Russian passenger plane was hijacked on a flight from Moscow to Perm in the Urals.
Of the 117 hostages who died in the theater ordeal, all but two were killed by the gas pumped in at dawn Saturday when Russian special forces ended the three-day siege by Chechen rebels, who demanded Russian troops pull out of Chechnya.
Officials have refused to name the gas -- even to the doctors trying to treat the critically sick.
Monday, an official day of mourning in Russia for siege victims, Putin pledged a hard line against the country's foes.
"Russia will make no deals with terrorists and will not give in to any blackmail," Russian news agencies quoted him as telling government ministers.
He was also quoted as saying Moscow would respond in "appropriate" fashion if there was any threat to use weapons of mass destruction against Russia.
Chechen leaders, who accuse Russian forces of brutality away from the world's gaze in their southern republic, offered again Monday to sit down for talks -- an offer the Russians have so far largely refused.
MANY STILL IN GRAVE CONDITION
The siege began when some 50 Chechen separatists seized a packed Moscow theater during a musical.
It ended when, after guerrillas shot two hostages dead, troops stormed it after using knock-out gas to stop the "suicide squad" rebels detonating explosives strapped to their bodies.
Moscow's top doctor Andrei Seltsovsky said 646 hostages were still in hospital -- 45 of them in a grave condition.
Frustrated and exhausted relatives, carrying food parcels and presents, gathered outside iron hospital gates in a desperate attempt to learn news of their loved ones.
Doctors at Hospital No. 13, where more than 300 hostages were taken, said most were expected to be allowed out Monday.
Elated, the first to go home flashed smiles at the crowd.
"When the gas came, I lost feeling in my body, I couldn't move my fingers. I lay down on a red fur coat and after that I can't remember," said Andrei Naumov, 17. "When I awoke, I felt I was alive."
Flags were ordered flown at half mast and light entertainment was canceled in the city of more than 10 million. Schoolchildren stood for a minute of silence before starting classes. Wednesday's Champions' League match in Moscow between Spartak Moscow and FC Basel was canceled as a mark of respect.
Passers-by placed fresh flowers and candles in plastic glasses outside the theater where the hostages were. Fifty hostage-takers, or nearly all of them, were killed in Sunday's assault.
"My heart is broken," an elderly local resident said, wiping tears off her cheeks. "I couldn't move from my balcony all night. I just stood there, helpless."
Putin apologized within hours of the dawn raid Saturday for proving unable to save all hostages.
"POISONED LIKE COCKROACHES"
But initial relief was replaced by doubts about the mysterious gas as the death toll mounted over the weekend.
"They poisoned us like cockroaches," a woman quoted her daughter as saying in Kommersant daily, in a front-page spread under the headline "Overdose."
One doctor expressed frustration at the lack of information.
"I saw no gunshot wounds at all. Those who died had swallowed their vomit or their tongue or their hearts had stopped," he told the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily.
"If only we had known beforehand! If they had told us that we would be getting large numbers who had lost consciousness or heart failure, it might have been a bit different."
Reports immediately after the raid said around 10 hostages had died, suggesting the operation was a huge success.
But then the death toll hit 67, then over 90, before climbing to 117 Sunday. Only two died from gunshots.
"These numbers could change as there are a specific number of victims still in intensive care," Sergei Mironov, chief doctor within the Kremlin administration, told reporters.
TALKS OFFER
Chechnya's elected but now fugitive president Aslan Maskhadov said through an aide that he was ready to hold unconditional talks with the Russians to find a political solution to the bloody, protracted conflict.
"We can only solve it politically," his envoy Akhmed Zakayev told a Chechen gathering in Copenhagen.
"President Maskhadov, as before, is ready without any preconditions to sit at the negotiation table. It is up to the Russian leadership."
For Putin, the rising theater siege death toll has been an uncomfortable reminder of two other tragedies which have blighted his term of office.
In August 2000, the nuclear submarine Kursk sank after a torpedo exploded on board, killing 118. Putin was widely criticized for a perceived failure to act decisively then.
A packed helicopter was shot down over Chechnya in August despite repeated claims that the war was all but over.
ANAESTHETIC?
A failure to identify the gas -- and claims that it was similar to anesthetics used in surgery -- also reinforced a long-standing image of Russian secrecy and disinformation.
Paul Beaver, of the London-based security and defense consultancy Ashbourne Beaver Associates, said the operation would be considered a success in military terms, defined as fewer than 30 percent casualties.
But he said most military gases have antidotes and it may have been a flaw in planning if the attack was launched without making sure there was enough antidote to treat freed hostages.
Russia could face criticism from the West for continuing to portray its Chechen policy as an anti-terrorist operation in line with the U.S. war on terrorism.
France was quick to press Moscow after the siege to find a political solution to the Chechen war.
A Russia-European Union summit scheduled for November 11 in Copenhagen has already come under threat after Kremlin protests over a meeting by Chechen exiles planned in the Danish capital.
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Putin Giving Military Broader Power
By STEVE GUTTERMAN
Associated Press Writer
Oct 28, 2002
http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/R/RUSSIA_THEATER_RAID?SITE=DCTMS&SECTION=HOME
MOSCOW (AP) -- President Vladimir Putin said Monday he will give the military broader power to strike against suspected terrorists "where ever they may be" in response to a three-day hostage siege at a Moscow theater that left at least 118 captives dead after a rescue operation.
All but two of the hostages who died after Russian special forces raided the theater succumbed to a mysterious knockout gas troops pumped into the auditorium before storming it, doctors said. However, the substance remained secret even as doctors treated the hundreds of survivors.
"If anyone even tries to use such means in relation to our country, Russia will answer with measures adequate to the threat to the Russian Federation - in all places where the terrorists, the organizers of these crimes, or their ideological or financial sponsors are located. I emphasize, where ever they may be," Putin said in a televised statement.
Putin told Cabinet officials he would order the Russian general staff to change its guidelines on the use of military forces because of the growing threat of international terrorism and the possibility of them using weapons that could cause as much damage as weapons of mass destruction.
"Russia will not ... give in to any blackmail," Interfax quoted Putin as saying.
Putin has sought to portray the Chechen conflict as a battle with international terrorists, partly in efforts to get broader support abroad.
Putin's announcement came as the government came under increasing criticism about the number of hostages killed at the theater and the way they died: at the hands of Russian authorities trying to save them.
Three top Moscow doctors revealed Sunday that the gas killed the people inside the theater and they were unclear about how to treat the estimated 750 people inside.
Authorities did not tell medical officials what type of gas they pumped into the theater shortly before special forces troops raided it early Saturday, chief Moscow doctor Andrei Seltsovsky said.
Seltsovsky said doctors were familiar with the general category of the gas, which causes people to lose consciousness and can be used to anesthetize surgical patients, but were not told its name.
The gas can paralyze breathing, blood circulation, and cardiac and liver functions, doctors said. The effects were worsened by the extreme conditions in which the hostages were confined for three days - little movement, lack of water, food and sleep, severe psychological stress - and by the chronic medical problems some suffered.
"In standard situations, the compound that was used on people does not act as aggressively as it turned out to do," Seltsovsky said.
The Moscow Health Department said 405 former hostages, including nine children, remained hospitalized Monday after 239 were released. On Sunday, doctors had said 646 people remained hospitalized, 45 of them in very serious condition.
Two foreign women, one Dutch and one Austrian, died, and officials in Kazakhstan said a 13-year-old girl from their country died - one of three children who perished.
There were about 800 people in the theater when it was seized by Chechen gunmen during Wednesday night's performance of the popular Russian musical "Nord-Ost," or "North-East."
Anguished relatives crowded the gates of Moscow hospitals, begging for news of their kin, while others scoured the city morgues.
Tatiana Lukashova's 26-year-old daughter, Masha Panova, was a hostage and now is missing.
Lukashova saw a broadcast on the ORT television station Saturday that showed her daughter lying on a mattress in a hospital corridor with an oxygen mask on.
"But we didn't hear what hospital it was, and our search through all the hospitals was in vain," Lukashova said in a telephone interview.
"It's unbelievable," she said, tears choking her voice. "Even the head of the district where we live went to meet officials of ORT to find out in which hospital they filmed the girl, but they told him they can't tell without permission from prosecutors."
Even diplomats had trouble finding information about the estimated 70 foreign citizens among the hostages. U.S. consular officials searched the city's hospitals for one of two American citizens known to have been hostages.
Putin declared Monday a day of national mourning for the victims of the hostage crisis. Schools in Moscow were open Monday and started the day with a moment of silence, but many children's activities were canceled.
The death toll among the hostages stood at 118 on Sunday, including the 116 who died from effects of the gas, a woman who was shot in the early hours of the crisis and a hostage killed by a gunshot wound to the head early Saturday.
Moscow officials said Monday that relatives of the dead would receive about $3,150 in compensation, while hostages who survived would get half that, Interfax reported. The city will pay for funerals, it said.
Officials said three gunmen were captured, and authorities searched the city for accomplices who may have escaped. The Federal Security Service said 50 assailants were killed at the theater, and several were shot in the head apparently as they lay incapacitated from the gas.
Meanwhile, security remained tight in the capital and police arrested a Chechnya resident in downtown Moscow after finding an explosive substance on him and in his car, the ITAR-Tass news agency reported Monday. The man also had extremist Muslim literature, it said.
Some of the attackers who burst into the theater Wednesday night had explosives strapped to their bodies; 18 were women who said they were widows of Chechens killed by Russian forces. They mined the theater and threatened to blow it up unless Putin withdrew Russian troops from the rebellious, predominantly Muslim region of Chechnya.
Russian forces pulled out of Chechnya after a devastating 1994-1996 war that left separatists in control. In the autumn of 1999, Putin sent troops back in after Chechnya-based rebels attacked a neighboring region and after apartment bombings that killed about 300 people were blamed on the militants.
In 1995 and 1996, rebels seized hundreds of hostages in two raids in southern Russia near Chechnya, and dozens of people died in both cases. Many of them were killed when Russian forces attacked the assailants.
----
Only 2 Slain by Rebels; More Than 600 Remain Hospitalized in Moscow
Gas in Raid Killed 115 Hostages
By Susan B. Glasser and Peter Baker
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, October 28, 2002; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28303-2002Oct27?language=printer
MOSCOW, Oct. 27 -- The gas that Russian authorities pumped into a theater to knock out Chechen guerrillas during a pre-dawn commando raid Saturday killed at least 115 of the hostages in a tragic climax to the siege, Moscow's chief medical officer disclosed today.
Doctors said that only two hostages had died from gunshot wounds before Russian special forces stormed the theater and killed 50 militants, ending a 58-hour standoff. The rest of the civilians who were killed had been weakened by the long ordeal and died "from the effects of the gas exposure," said Andrei Seltsovsky, head of the Moscow health department. Of the 646 former hostages who remained hospitalized today, 45 were in critical condition.
The conclusion that nearly all the slain hostages died from the gas and not from their captors' bullets contradicted initial assertions by law enforcement officials that their "special means" had not been fatal, and shed new light on an operation that has begun to draw more criticism as the death toll rises.
The medical findings, and new accounts from those who were trapped inside the theater, indicated that the Chechen militants had not begun systematically killing their hostages as Russian authorities believed before launching the assault. Some specialists said security agencies used an excessive dosage of the gas, which was funneled into the ventilation system of the theater building. The government's refusal to identify the gas, even to doctors treating the freed hostages, and its decision to keep most of the hostages incommunicado in hospitals provoked new controversy today.
A penchant for secrecy, along with a disregard for the human consequences, is a long-standing feature of Russian history, and has continued to echo through the struggle over the last decade and a half to establish a more open society. Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev denied the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown for days in 1986 as radioactive clouds drifted toward Europe. President Vladimir Putin's government issued deceptive accounts, refused foreign help and ignored the pleas of relatives when the nuclear-powered submarine Kursk sank in 2000 after an explosion in the torpedo room, taking the lives of all 118 on board.
"Like with the submarine Kursk, the story repeats itself once again -- 'We have no problems, we can solve everything ourselves,' et cetera, et cetera," Boris Nemtsov, head of the reformist Union of Right Forces in parliament, said in an interview today. "They make terrible mistakes and that's why they implement censorship, KGB-style."
Nemtsov, who tried to negotiate a peaceful resolution of the hostage crisis, said his party would demand a parliamentary investigation of the government's conduct, questioning not the raid itself but the failure to provide adequate medical care to hostages and the refusal to release information or help relatives.
The emerging criticism contrasted sharply with the applause that first greeted news of the raid. As more information became available -- and as the government worked to try to keep it quiet -- more people began raising questions.
Lev Fedorov, an environmental activist who is head of the Russian Union for Chemical Safety, concluded today after learning more about the effects of the gas that Russian officials had mishandled it.
"The large number of deaths is on the conscience of those who did not do it right," he said, adding that he was not surprised that officials refused to give details about the substance. "We are never going to know exactly what chemical it was because in this country the state is more important than the people."
Also contributing to the disquiet in some circles was the rising death toll among the hostages. Initially put at about a dozen, then 67 and eventually 90 on Saturday, it grew to 117 today -- just one shy of the number killed aboard the Kursk -- and may climb further.
Putin visited with the special forces troops who led the raid and declared Monday a day of national mourning, but he remained quiet today as new details emerged and more relatives of the hostages complained of their treatment.
Other political leaders continued to defend the raid as the only choice given the militants' threat to blow up the theater if Putin did not end the war in Chechnya.
"We found ourselves in a situation between a horrible tragedy involving the deaths of all the hostages and an incredible disgrace had we met all the demands of the hostage-takers," Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov said on ORT state television tonight.
In light of new questions, however, authorities chose to withhold information not only from the public but also from relatives, doctors and diplomats.
Officials declined to reveal the gas used, despite demands from the United States and other embassies, which wanted the information to evaluate the health implications for their citizens. Sobbing relatives were left standing vigil outside hospitals, just as they had outside the theater, because authorities would not let them see the freed hostages. Several of the former captives reported being pressured not to talk.
Although the government said Saturday that none of the 75 foreigners among the hostages had been killed, embassies today revealed that at least four had died, including women from the Netherlands, Austria and Belarus and a young girl from Kazakhstan.
"We found our child by accident when he was already dead," said Alexei Sergeyenko, the stepfather of child actor Arseny Kyrilenko, 13, who played the role of Sasha in the musical "Nord-Ost" that was playing at the theater at the time it was seized.
Sergeyenko said the family found Arseny at a Moscow morgue with no visible wounds. "The only explanation of his death is the use of gas," Sergeyenko said a few hours later. "If there was a chance to avoid the storming [of the theater], then he would have probably survived."
Anatoly Glazychev, 40, a stage manager who was among the hostages, said the gas made many people vomit, and caused older victims liver problems. "I don't consider it the right way to free the hostages," he said by telephone from his hospital bed.
Glazychev and other hostages said they smelled a pungent odor just before passing out. Chemical weapons experts said nerve gas often smells of bitter almonds, but it was not clear whether that was the substance used. Other specialists have said the substance might have been a gas known as BZ that, while not banned, is not generally used in law enforcement situations. Unsure how to treat the effects of the gas, doctors said they turned to standard military antibiotics, used when they do not know how soldiers have been afflicted.
Yevgeny Yevdokimov, the chief anesthetist in Moscow who joined chief medical officer Seltsovsky at an early evening news conference here, described the gas as an incapacitating agent often used as a general anesthesia. Exposure to high concentrations of the gas can cause loss of consciousness and impair breathing and blood flow.
Health officials said the gas would not have killed so many except that the hostages had been made especially vulnerable by stress and hunger. Moreover, other experts noted that the amount required to knock out the young, healthy Chechen guerrillas might have had a far more severe effect on children or elderly theatergoers.
Just as they withheld information from Russian relatives, authorities here had still not informed the U.S. Embassy of the location or condition of Sandy Alan Booker, 49, an American from Oklahoma who was among the hostages. "We're still looking for him," an embassy spokesman said.
Russian security services told U.S. officials that they had found Booker's identification documents, according to another source who asked not to be identified, raising the fear that he might be dead or in a coma. Jean Booker, his mother, said by telephone from Oklahoma that a U.S. official called to ask if her son had any scars or other identifying marks on his body. "They can't seem to locate him," she said.
U.S. officials today tracked down another American hostage at a Russian hospital, but now believe a third American reported by a relative to have been in the theater might not have been there.
Several former hostages reported being ordered not to talk about what had happened. Oleg Zyogonov, an editorial assistant at the Agence France-Presse news service, was told to hang up when he started to recount his experience to his office.
Such conduct drew fire from liberal politicians. Grigory Yavlinsky, head of the Yabloko party, said it may simply represent "the stupidity of the bureaucracy" or it could be a more sinister "conspiracy" to cover up information. Putin's government, he said, should at least disclose more about the gas. "The doctors have to know," he said.
For the most part, criticism has focused on government conduct after the raid rather than the decision to storm the building. Many Russian political leaders and commentators concluded that Putin and the government had no choice, especially given the fact that the Chechens had wired the theater with high-powered explosives.
But accounts by some hostages and Russian newspapers questioned the timing of the raid. Citing sources in the special forces, the newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets reported that Putin decided days earlier to storm the building, and that it had been planned all along for Saturday at 6 a.m.
Although the Chechens had threatened to kill hostages starting at dawn, they also had kept lines of communications open to the end. A Chechen intermediary said in an interview Saturday that militant leader Movsar Barayev was negotiating the release of foreign hostages even as the raid began. The intermediary, Ali Asayev, said he had U.S. diplomat John R. Beyrle on the telephone at the same time he had Barayev on the other line. However, a U.S. Embassy official said today that while Beyrle was speaking with Asayev to try to arrange the release of hostages, Barayev was not on the other line.
As the operation began about 5:15 a.m., security officials on the scene said they were moving in because the Chechen militants had begun killing hostages. The militants had shot two hostages, but that occurred about three hours earlier, when a hostage charged one of the guerrillas, according to witnesses.
As calm returned, Glazychev, the stage manager, recalled, "Everyone relaxed and realized there wasn't going to be any [more] shooting."
When the gas was pumped into the building, Glazychev said, the militants used the 90 seconds before passing out to prepare to defend the building. "If they wanted to, they had every chance to start shooting us. But they didn't do that. . . . There was hope that a solution would be found through negotiation."
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West backs Russia over rescue tactics
Monday, 28 October, 2002
BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2370101.stm
Doctors are still treating 24 critically ill hostages The White House has firmly pinned the blame for the deaths of civilians in the Moscow theatre siege on the Chechen rebels who took them hostage.
President George W Bush "understands it is the terrorists with whom the blame lies", spokesman Ari Fleischer said after 115 hostages died in Saturday's rescue operation.
News that nearly all of the victims had died from a controversial gas Russian troops used to subdue the Chechen suicide fighters inside has caused an outcry in Moscow. US Defence Department officials have described the gas as an opium derivative.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin's tough line was endorsed by the UK's prime minister on Monday who said there were "no easy, risk-free, safe solutions" in such a situation.
"I hope people will understand the enormity of the dilemma facing President Putin as he weighed what to do, in both trying to end the siege with minimum loss of life and recognising the dangers of doing anything that conceded to this latest outrage of terrorism from Chechnya," Tony Blair told Parliament in London.
Mr Blair linked the Moscow siege, in which the rebels portrayed themselves as Islamic warriors, to the wider war on terrorism and such events as the bomb attacks in Bali and the killing of an American official in Jordan.
"A deadly mixture of religious and political fanaticism is being pursued by those who have no compunction about taking human lives, no matter how innocent and little about losing their own," he said
As Russia held a day of national mourning on Monday, President Putin also talked of the threat from "international terrorism":
"Here and there around the world we hear of threats from terrorists of the use of means comparable to weapons of mass destruction."
Gas controversy
Despite its support for President Putin's hard line on the rebels, the United States has, along with other foreign states, asked Russia to explain how so many hostages died from the gas used by its special forces.
The Russian authorities have refused to name the gas used or provide an antidote, causing frustration among doctors charged with tending the survivors at Moscow hospitals.
Officials at the US Defense Department, quoting the US Embassy in Moscow, believe the gas was an opium derivative which dulls the senses and deadens pain but may also cause coma and death by shutting down breathing and circulation.
A Kremlin official told the Financial Times newspaper that the gas used was an anaesthetic which "in normal conditions would not lead to lethal results".
Russian officials have cited security reasons for refusing to name the gas.
But the BBC's diplomatic correspondent, James Robbins, says that if a chemical banned under the international Chemical Weapons Convention had been used, the Russians would risk another country demanding inspections of Russian chemical and military sites.
'No other way'
The security forces deny they acted recklessly, arguing that the militants were threatening to kill themselves along with their 800 hostages.
A former commander of Russia's Alpha special forces, Sergei Goncharov, defended his comrades' operation to save the hostages.
"The use of the gas gave us a fraction of a second to be the first to shoot and prevent hostage-takers from pressing the detonation button or connecting the wires - this is why the gas attack was carried out."
Many of the thousands of mourners who came to the theatre in southern Moscow on Monday to lay flowers agreed.
"There was no other way," said pensioner Lyudmila Yemelyanova.
"If the explosives inside the building had gone off then not only the theatre but all the neighbouring buildings would have been destroyed."
Doctors said 24 hostages remained in hospital in a critical condition on Monday evening and of the 115 killed, the bodies of 109 had been identified.
Up to 50 male and female Chechen militants, many of them with undetonated explosives still strapped to their bodies, were also killed during the rescue operation.
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Oil Near 11-Week Lows, U.S. Wants U.N. Vote on Iraq
Reuters
Monday, October 28, 2002
By Tanya Pang
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A29382-2002Oct28?language=printer
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices hung round 11-week lows on Monday, kicking off what traders expect to be a decisive week for the United Nations to settle a deadlock over a resolution to disarm Iraq.
London benchmark Brent crude was flat at $25.46 a barrel while U.S. light crude was five cents higher at $27.10 a barrel. Oil prices fell around two dollars last week and now stand at levels not seen since the first half of August.
A U.N. stalemate over the wording of a resolution ordering Iraq to allow weapons inspectors back on to its soil after a four-year break has reduced the imminent threat of a military strike against Baghdad, taking some of the steam out of prices.
Analysts said crude is fast losing a so-called war premium, which was estimated at one point at roughly $5 a barrel. Oil was pumped higher on fears that the use of force against Iraq might disrupt crude flows from the Middle East, which supplies about one-third of the world's oil.
"The market is now responding to fundamentals and the erosion of the war premium is well underway," Simon Games-Thomas, head of energy at NM Rothschild & Son in Sydney, said in a daily note.
"Fair value for crude without war in Iraq is probably in the low $20s." U.S. crude dropped $1.15 on Friday after consultancy Petrologistics forecast daily output by the OPEC producers' cartel would rise by more than half-a-million barrels in October, largely due to higher exports from Iraq.
The Geneva-based tanker-tracking consultancy said it expected OPEC to produce 26.78 million barrels per day this month, up from 26.26 million bpd in September as Iraqi oil sales rise to 2.55 million bpd from 2.095 million.
Sanctions-bound Iraq is excluded from OPEC's quota system.
The other 10 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries were seen pumping 24.23 million bpd, 2.53 million bpd over the official ceiling of 21.7 million bpd, Petrologistics said.
OPEC producers have been increasingly pumping above their quota limits to take advantage of strong oil prices with demand expected to pick up as the Northern Hemisphere winter sets in.
KEY WEEK AT U.N.
The United States is expected to push for a vote this week at the U.N. Security Council on a draft resolution over Iraq that has backing from Britain, but opposition from France, China and Russia.
All five countries are permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and hold veto rights.
A U.S. draft proposal would give U.N. arms inspectors far-reaching rights and privileges in ferreting out weapons of mass destruction, which Washington claims have been stockpiled by Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.
The draft warns Baghdad of "serious consequences" if it hampers weapons inspections, language that Russia and France fear can be interpreted as a trigger for military action.
French and Russian U.N. diplomats distributed on Friday rival draft resolutions in what envoys said was a negotiating stance to pressure the United States to revise its text.
An increasingly impatient President Bush vowed on Sunday that the United States would lead a coalition to disarm Iraq if the Security Council failed to act against Baghdad.
"If the United Nations won't act, if Saddam Hussein will not act, if he continues to defy the world, the United States in the name of peace will lead a coalition to disarm Saddam Hussein," Bush told a political rally in Phoenix, Arizona.
Iraq denies Bush's claims that it has built up stocks of chemical and biological weapons and that it may even have nuclear capability.
Gulf oil producers offered oil consumers some reassurance on Sunday, saying they would safeguard world supplies if there was any strike against Iraq.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al Naimi said he and his five colleagues from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pledged to "protect worldwide supplies, guarantee market stability and preserve stable oil prices...at a fair level for producers and consumers" at a brief meeting in Muscat.
The GCC comprises OPEC's Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as well as non-OPEC Oman and Bahrain.
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US-British strategy on Iraq close to collapse
From James Bone in New York and Chris Ayres in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
October 28, 2002
UK Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-460985,00.html
THE six-week effort by Britain and the United States to secure a tough United Nations resolution on Iraq is in danger of collapse because of continued opposition to their threats of military action.
With US officials pushing for a decision by the end of the week, the two powers are struggling to enlist the nine votes needed to push their strongly worded draft resolution through the 15-nation UN Security Council.
Both France and Russia have circulated rival proposals omitting "trigger language" for the use of force. Seeing strength in numbers, Paris and Moscow hope to draw away enough votes from the US-British draft that they will not have to confront the world's sole superpower directly by exercising their veto.
Britain and the United States have formally tabled their text in the Security Council to ensure that it comes to a vote first, but France threatened at the weekend to submit its draft for a vote as well if it did not win further concessions. "We are going to try to work with the Americans on the basis of the text they have proposed," Dominique de Villepin, the French Foreign Minister, said on Saturday. "If we don't manage that, then we will obviously officially propose our own text."
Diplomats say that Britain and the United States can count on the support only of Bulgaria, Colombia, Norway and Singapore for its latest proposal. Russia, China, France and Syria do not support the present US-British text. The swing votes are Cameroon, Ireland, Guinea, Mauritius and Mexico.
President Bush, attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) summit in Mexico, apparently failed to convince President Fox of Mexico to use his UN vote to back military action. After a tense meeting on Saturday, Señor Fox said: "What we need to accomplish is a resolution that is satisfactory to all the parties there in the United Nations. We are listening and talking and we want to search for and do everything possible for a strong resolution."
Glowering at the cameras, Mr Bush responded: "As I have said in speech after speech after speech, if the UN won't act, if Saddam Hussein won't disarm, we will lead a coalition to disarm him."
In the meeting Mr Bush reportedly balked at Señor Fox's invitation to make a state visit to Mexico next year to mark the tenth anniversary of the North American Free Trade Agreement. "Maybe we'll be at war," Mr Bush replied, according to the Los Angeles Times. Señor Fox said: "If you're at war, you're at war. But right now you're not at war, so think about it."
Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, conceded that the push for a new resolution might fail. "I don't want to say that we're near a solution because it may evade us," he said, "but I think we have successfully narrowed down the differences to a few key issues. And if we can resolve these few key issues in the days ahead, then I think we might get a resolution that would be strong."
Diplomats say that the key point of disagreement is the so-called "trigger language". The US-British draft declares Iraq in "material breach" of the 1991 Gulf War ceasefire and gives warning of "serious consequences" if it fails to live up to UN demands - both considered "hidden triggers". France, in its rival text, is willing to go along with a veiled warning of "serious consequences", but it refuses to accept a declaration of "material breach" that could provide the legal basis for military action. Security Council members are also split over US-British proposals to toughen the UN weapons inspectors' mandate with new powers, such as the right to declare no-fly and no-drive zones.
In a bid to break the deadlock, Dominique de Villepin, the French Foreign Minister, has proposed a ministerial meeting of the Security Council to several of his counterparts, including General Powell. He said that they had welcomed the idea.
The Apec leaders agreed on a series of counter-terrorism measures that focused on denying would-be attackers access to ships and aircraft and stemming their access to funds.
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Reserve Call-Up for an Iraqi War May Equal 1991's
October 28, 2002
New York Times
By THOM SHANKER and ERIC SCHMITT
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/28/international/middleeast/28MILI.html
WASHINGTON, Oct. 27 - If President Bush orders an attack against Iraq, the Pentagon has plans to mobilize roughly as many reservists as it did during the Persian Gulf war in 1991, when about 265,000 members of the National Guard and Reserves were summoned to active duty, administration officials and military experts say.
Although officials have said the emerging war plan will probably call for fewer troops for a new offensive against Iraq than the Pentagon and the allies deployed in the first gulf war, there is one main reason the Pentagon would call up so many reservists in this case.
Large numbers of Guard and Reserve troops would be needed to protect military bases overseas and at home. The troops, especially those in the National Guard, would also be expected to play an important role in protecting an array of potential terrorist targets in the United States, including power plants, transportation hubs, medical centers and factories. This would be in addition to whatever combat role some of the activated troops would be assigned.
During the war in 1991, the American government did not have such significant fears of terrorist strikes against overseas bases or targets in the United States. This time, officials say, the threat of terrorist attacks would become more critical, rising above even the elevated threat levels since Sept. 11.
One expert familiar with the Pentagon's planning said a significant difference between any new military offensive against Iraq and the earlier gulf war was "the need for greater force protection around the world" and a dramatically expanded role for the military in homeland security.
Those jobs would fall not only to ground troops in the Army National Guard and Reserve. Navy and Coast Guard reserves would patrol the nation's maritime borders, and putting more fighter jets over American cities would require large numbers of Air Force and Navy pilots, ground crews and aircraft.
In the days after the Sept. 11 attacks, the combat air patrols over American cities tied up about 11,000 Air Force and Navy personnel and 250 fighters and refueling or radar planes.
Any new call-up of Guard and Reserve forces would come on the heels of a prolonged mobilization for defense of the homeland after Sept. 11 and for the war in Afghanistan. In the aftermath of Sept. 11, Guard and Reserve mobilization peaked at 77,455 people during the intense fighting in Afghanistan. The number has dipped and risen again over the months, and stood at 58,133 last week, according to Pentagon records.
In recent years, the roughly 870,000 members of the Guard and Reserves, who serve a minimum of a weekend a month plus two weeks a year, have become increasingly involved in long overseas operations, from hurricane relief in Central America to peacekeeping in the Balkans and patrols in the skies over northern and southern Iraq.
Those deployments and the mobilizations after Sept. 11 - including many lasting from 90 days to one year - have created strains on families and employers, although Pentagon officials say recruiting and retention have not yet been affected.
Processing a number similar to those called up for the war in 1991 would be a laborious process that, according to a Pentagon official, "would take more than a week or two" to complete. The overall call-up schedule would be held secret in advance, so as not to tip the Pentagon's hand before any attack that might be ordered by Mr. Bush.
Guard and Reserve units and individuals would have to be notified and mustered. Medical experts would have to ensure that they were up to date with all their inoculations. Then commanders would have to transport Guard and Reserve forces to their assigned missions here at home or abroad.
Senior Defense Department officials were briefed on plans for the Reserve call-up within the last 10 days, a Pentagon official said. No final decision has been reached because Mr. Bush has yet to decide whether to take military action against Iraq, the official said.
A Reserve call-up is just one important variable that military planners are weighing as they refine war strategy for a possible confrontation with Iraq.
The diplomatic dance going on in New York over details of a United Nations Security Council resolution governing the course of international weapons inspections in Iraq has a direct impact on the timing of troop deployments and, ultimately, the start of any offensive.
Much of the heavy equipment recently deployed to the Persian Gulf region would probably remain while inspections were under way, because it is more difficult to move in bulk and with speed, according to Pentagon officials.
But the troops sent for exercises, training or standard duty might rotate home if it appeared that an inspection cycle would run for a long period, with fresh fighting forces quickly sent in their place later.
The military has prepared and even deployed substantial forces to the Persian Gulf region, but in ways intended not to interfere with the administration's efforts to build support among allies for action against President Saddam Hussein. The only slight pause in the pre-deployment timetable has been for units whose job is mostly logistics and support.
But Pentagon officials also emphasized that Iraqi rejection of a resolution, or a speedy collapse of the inspection program in the face of Iraqi resistance, would probably accelerate the president's decision to use force. In addition, the United Nations may not agree on a resolution this week, something that could also alter the timetable for any offensive against Iraq.
"Until we have a resolution, there is a lot of uncertainty," a Pentagon official said.
The best time for combat in the desert is between December and March, and postponing any offensive until late spring or early summer would require an American-led coalition to fight in the searing heat of the Iraqi desert. The risk of chemical attack and the need to wear bulky protective gear makes that prospect especially unwelcome.
While commanders say the American military could fight and win a summer war - indeed, forces from the Army and Marines routinely train in the California desert - the triple-digit temperatures could have a debilitating effect on troops and require large additional quantities of water for personnel and equipment.
"Is it the biggest impact on people? Probably," a military official said, referring to the summer heat.
The effect of heat waves shimmering through the atmosphere off the desert floor can interfere with the accuracy of optically guided weapons, but not those that are guided by satellite.
Planners are also considering contingencies should Mr. Hussein throw obstacles up in front of allied forces moving toward Baghdad, from setting Iraqi oil fields aflame, as he ordered done in Kuwait a decade ago, to flooding the marshes of southern Iraq, near Basra.
Gen. Tommy R. Franks, the head of the United States Central Command, was wrapping up a visit to the region this weekend, just as Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was beginning a short tour of the region, including meetings with leaders in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
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Pentagon Would Mobilize Reservists
October 28, 2002
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/national/AP-Iraq-US-Reserves.html
NEW YORK (AP) -- The Pentagon is prepared to call hundreds of thousands of Reservists and National Guard members to duty if President Bush orders an attack on Iraq, The New York Times reported Monday.
About 265,000 Guard and Reserve troops, roughly the same number used during the Persian Gulf War in 1991, would be mobilized in the event of an attack, the Times said.
Aside from military duties, many of the troops would be called upon to protect military bases at home and abroad. They also would be used to help safeguard potential terrorist targets in the United States, including power plants and factories, the newspaper reported.
The call-up schedule would be kept secret, but a Pentagon official told the Times that it ``would take more than a week or two'' to muster the reserves together. The reserves would need to make sure that they were up to date with their inoculations before being transported to their missions.
Nearly 80,000 members of the Army National Guard and Reserve forces were mobilized after Sept. 11, 2001, and for the war in Afghanistan. Pentagon records show that more than 58,000 were active last week.
There are currently 870,000 members of the Guard and Reserve. They serve a minimum of a weekend a month plus two weeks a year.
The reservists would only be deployed if Bush decides to take military action against Iraq, sources told the Times.
On the Net:
http://www.ngb.dtic.mil
-------- propaganda wars
Misleading the Nation About War
Monday, October 28, 2002
Washington Post; Page A18
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28438-2002Oct27?language=printer
I know something about defending a president who's been caught lying. Let me tell my friend Ari Fleischer that he's only making things worse for President Bush. After The Post reported on Mr. Bush's many fabrications regarding Iraq and homeland security, Mr. Fleischer sent a letter to the editor in which he refers to President Clinton's false denial of an affair as a "crime that shook the nation" [Oct. 24].
The lawyer in me is compelled to point out that President Clinton has never been charged with nor convicted of a crime. The same cannot be said of President George W. Bush who, of course, was convicted of drunken driving many years ago. To his shame, in the 2000 campaign Mr. Bush falsely denied ever having been convicted of a crime.
The political veteran in me knows that lying about a long-past drunken driving conviction -- or an affair -- is understandable, if not excusable. What is not excusable is misleading the country -- repeatedly, as The Post and others have noted -- about going to war. There is something odd about a White House that thinks misleading people about sex is a crime, but misleading us about war is good public policy.
PAUL E. BEGALA
McLean
The writer was counselor to President Clinton.
In his letter, White House Spokesman Ari Fleischer wrote, "True, the president stated that the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iraq could possess nuclear weapons in as few as six months. It was in fact the International Institute for Strategic Studies that issued the report. The source may be different, but the underlying fact remains the same, despite the story's declaration of the president's argument, once again, as 'dubious, if not wrong.' "
I find it curious that the report the White House now claims the president's original statement was based on was released Sept. 9, two days after President Bush made his statement. Even more curious, just like the original source that has been disavowed, the new source that the White House cites as the basis for the president's statement does not say that Iraq was six months away from developing a nuclear weapon.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies Web site:
"Iraq does not possess facilities to produce fissile material in sufficient amounts for nuclear weapons. It would require several years and extensive foreign assistance to build such fissile material production facilities. It could, however, assemble nuclear weapons within months if fissile material from foreign sources were obtained. It could divert domestic civil-use radioisotopes or seek to obtain foreign material for a crude radiological device."
Based on that, the president's claim sure sounds "dubious, if not wrong" to me, and it's not exactly what is needed on an issue of this import.
WILLIAM MURPHY
Westminster
-------- POLICE / PRISONERS / COURTS
FBI's Theory On Anthrax Is Doubted
Attacks Not Likely Work Of 1 Person, Experts Say
By Guy Gugliotta and Gary Matsumoto
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, October 28, 2002; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28334-2002Oct27?language=printer
A significant number of scientists and biological warfare experts are expressing skepticism about the FBI's view that a single disgruntled American scientist prepared the spores and mailed the deadly anthrax letters that killed five people last year.
These sources say that making a weaponized aerosol of such sophistication and virulence would require scientific knowledge, technical competence, access to expensive equipment and safety know-how that are probably beyond the capabilities of a lone individual.
As a result, a consensus has emerged in recent months among experts familiar with the technology needed to turn anthrax spores into the deadly aerosol that was sent to Sens. Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) and Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.) that some of the fundamental assumptions driving the FBI's investigation may be flawed.
"In my opinion, there are maybe four or five people in the whole country who might be able to make this stuff, and I'm one of them," said Richard O. Spertzel, chief biological inspector for the U.N. Special Commission from 1994 to 1998. "And even with a good lab and staff to help run it, it might take me a year to come up with a product as good."
Instead, suggested Spertzel and more than a dozen experts interviewed by The Washington Post in recent weeks, investigators might want to reexamine the possibility of state-sponsored terrorism, or try to determine whether weaponized spores may have been stolen by the attacker from an existing, but secret, biodefense program or perhaps given to the attacker by an accomplice.
The Defense Department and FBI refused repeated requests from The Post to discuss recent developments in the anthrax investigation. But in some important respects, the official version of events -- developed in part during the early, frantic days of the probe -- is at odds with the available evidence, the experts say.
A profile of the attacker issued by the FBI last November described an angry, "lone individual" with "some" science background who could weaponize the anthrax spores in a basement laboratory for as little as $2,500. The FBI acknowledged that the sender may not have been a native English speaker but emphasized that there was no "direct or clear" link between the attacks and foreign terrorism.
More recently, investigators appear to have abandoned the idea of an amateur attacker, but they continue to focus on a lone, domestic scientist, probably an insider. Attention has centered on medical doctor and virologist Steven J. Hatfill, a former U.S. Army scientist identified by the Justice Department as a "person of interest" in the investigation. Hatfill vigorously denies any involvement.
Scientists suggested that the loner theory appeared flawed even in the opening days of the investigation. The profile was issued three weeks after U.S. Army scientists had examined the Daschle spores and found them to be 1.5 to 3 microns in size and processed to a grade of 1 trillion spores per gram -- 50 times finer than anything produced by the now-defunct U.S. bioweapons program and 10 times finer than the finest known grade of Soviet anthrax spores. A micron is a millionth of a meter.
"Just collecting this stuff is a trick," said Steven A. Lancos, executive vice president of Niro Inc., one of the leading manufacturers of spray dryers, viewed by several sources as the likeliest tool needed to weaponize the anthrax bacteria. "Even on a small scale, you still need containment. If you're going to do it right, it could cost millions of dollars."
Possible Foreign Source
Also early in the case, U.S. authorities dismissed the possibility that Iraq could have sponsored the attacks because investigators determined that the spores had been coated with silica to make them disperse quickly, rather than the mineral bentonite, regarded by the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command as Iraq's additive of choice.
However, Iraq's alleged preference for bentonite appears to be based on a single sample of a common pesticide collected by U.N. authorities from Iraq's Al Hakam biological weapons facility in the mid-1990s. By contrast, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency warned in declassified documents as early as 1989 that Iraq was acquiring silica to use as a chemical weapons additive.
In 1998, Iraq reported to the United Nations that it had conducted an artillery test of a live biological agent that used silica as a dispersant. And U.N. and U.S. intelligence documents reviewed by The Post show that Iraq had bought all the essential equipment and ingredients needed to weaponize anthrax bacteria with silica to a grade consistent with the Daschle and Leahy letters.
Daschle, Leahy and a few other senators and representatives have received periodic FBI briefings on the investigation, and Leahy said last week that the agency "has not foreclosed the possibility of a foreign source of this attack." However, the FBI's continued focus on Hatfill shows the agency's preoccupation with a domestic loner.
Bush administration officials have acknowledged that the anthrax attacks were an important motivator in the U.S. decision to confront Iraq, and several senior administration officials say today that they still strongly suspect a foreign source -- perhaps Iraq -- even though no one has publicly said so.
That Iraq had the wherewithal to make the anthrax letters does not mean it is the guilty party. Still, the FBI's early dismissal of the possibility may have prematurely closed a legitimate line of inquiry.
"Iraq almost certainly had their anthrax spores in a powdered form," Spertzel said. "They had used silica gel to aid in dispersibility of [wheat] smut spores, and also indicated they were looking at it as a carrier for aflatoxin," a carcinogen.
Outer Limits of Technology
Since the attacks one year ago, scientists have been able to identify the anthrax bacteria used in the Daschle and Leahy letters as the "Ames strain," a virulent anthrax used in U.S. biodefense programs.
Analysts are examining lab variants of the Ames strain to find possible sources for the original spores, but scientists and biowarfare experts say the additive used to disperse the spores may be as instructive as the spores themselves.
Even the sparse evidence made public by the investigation -- the uniformly tiny particle size and the trillion-spore-per-gram concentration -- has been enough to show many researchers that whoever weaponized the spores was operating at the outer limits of known aerosol technology. The mailer was brutally efficient in making a very special product for a very special mission.
The anthrax mailer needed a powder that could negotiate the U.S. postal system without absorbing so much moisture that it would cake up. At the end of the trip, the coated spores had to be light and supple enough to fly into the air with no delivery system beyond the rip of a letter opener through an envelope.
Finally, the spores had to be small enough for potential victims to inhale them deep into their lungs so that only a tiny number of spores would be needed to kill -- far fewer than the dosages anticipated by the U.S. government for the cruder aerosols of the past.
The answer was silica -- the same silicon dioxide that comprises substances ranging from beach sand to window glass. The attacker needed a special kind of silica, however, because the aerosol that delivered the spores was as sophisticated as any on the market.
"You need to get a drug into the bloodstream as an alternative to injecting it," said pharmaceutical scientist Richard Dalby of the University of Maryland's Aerosol Lab. "You need the drug to get much deeper into the lung, where the membranes are thinner, and to do that, you need smaller particles."
The pharmaceutical industry is the leader in this technology, Dalby added, but "there's only been an interest in generating tiny particles for that purpose for about the last 10 years."
Several sources agreed that the most likely way to build the coated spores would be to use the fine glass particles, known generically as "fumed silica" or "solid smoke," and mix them with the spores in a spray dryer. "I know of no other technique that might give you that finished product," Spertzel said.
According to William C. Patrick III, the former chief of product development for the U.S. Army's now-defunct bioweapons program, U.S. government scientists made biological agents using spray dryers, but did not spray dry anthrax.
Fumed silica grains are between 0.012 and 0.300 of a micron in size, and will readily adhere to the surface of any larger particle, such as an anthrax spore. Coated particles will easily disperse, because the grains act as tiny "ball bearings," enabling the larger bits to skid past one another.
Under an electron microscope, fumed silica would look like cotton balls strung together into strands that branch out in every direction. Their extremely small size gives them an aerodynamic quality, and their high surface area allows them to readily trap moisture, acting as a natural dessicant.
"If you packaged this stuff in a container, it would float out, and it's highly dispersible and messy to deal with," said C. Jeffrey Brinker, a University of New Mexico chemical engineer and a senior scientist at the Sandia National Laboratories.
Moreover, Brinker added, simply by shaking the particles in a jar, they acquire an electric charge, which causes them to repel one another and not clump together. A few passes through a mail-sorting machine would create the same effect. The particles would float, but they would remain separated.
"This concept of using something that would serve as a dessicant and a carrier at the same time is new," said Harvard University chemical engineer David Edwards. "It's a diabolically brilliant idea."
Fumed silica has myriad uses, mostly as a thickening agent in products including ceramics, house paint, toothpaste and cosmetics. It is not widely known as an aerosol additive.
"If you're going to put it into the lung, there has to be a mechanism to clear it, otherwise you just fill up somebody's lung with silica after repeated dosings," said Dalby, of the Aerosol Lab. The anthrax mailer, he noted, obviously wasn't worried about giving his victims silicosis.
Some fumed silicas are extremely difficult to make, but at least two -- Aerosil and Cab-O-Sil -- are readily available and sold commercially in bulk. Either product, in theory, could be used to coat anthrax spores. Aerosil is based in Germany and Cab-O-Sil, in Boston. Both firms have offices around the world.
Ken Alibek, a former deputy director of the Soviet bioweapons program now running an Alexandria biotechnology firm, said the Soviets used Aerosil in agent powders, and a classified Defense Department memo in 1991 said Iraq had "imported approximately 100 MT [metric tons] of Aerosil during the last 8-9 years." Spertzel said the United Nations reported in the 1990s that Iraq had 10 metric tons of Cab-O-Sil, probably destined for its chemical weapons program.
Expensive Equipment
The United Nations also documented the presence of three Niro Inc. spray dryers in Iraq in the 1990s. Spertzel said two were destroyed, and the third was scoured and sterilized before inspectors could examine it.
In spray drying, a technician mixes fumed silica and spores with water, then sprays the mist through a nozzle directly into a stream of superheated air shooting from a second nozzle into an enclosed chamber. The water evaporates instantly, leaving spores and additive floating in space.
"Surface tension will pull those little [silica] particles together onto the big one," said California Institute of Technology chemical engineer Richard Flagan. "You will end up with some degree of coating."
Whoever made such an aerosol would "need some experience" with aerosols and "would have to have a lot of anthrax, so you could practice," Edwards said. "You'd have to do a lot of trial and error to get the particles you wanted." It would also help to have an electron microscope to examine the results.
This would mean at least several hundred thousand dollars worth of equipment, several experts said. Niro's cheapest spray dryer sells for about $50,000. Electron microscopes cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
In all, said Niro's Lancos, "you would need [a] chemist who is familiar with colloidal [fumed] silica, and a material science person to put it all together, and then some mechanical engineers to make this work . . . probably some containment people, if you don't want to kill anybody. You need half a dozen, I think, really smart people."
One way to assemble such a team would be with "the knowing complicity of the government of the state in which it [the agent] is made," Spertzel said. Another way to acquire the agent, several sources acknowledged, would be to steal it from a biodefense program that uses live biological agents for research or training purposes.
The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention of 1972 bans offensive biowarfare research, but it clearly allows signatory nations to undertake biodefense programs using small quantities of live agents.
The Daschle and Leahy letters each contained 1.5 grams of anthrax powder or less, well within the boundaries of what researchers describe as "laboratory quantities" of agent. It is impossible to account publicly for all the anthrax powder that may exist in the United States, because most of the defense projects that use it are classified.
The Post asked the Defense Department whether the U.S. armed forces have made any anthrax powder comparable to that which was mailed to the Senate. The department declined to comment, citing the ongoing anthrax investigation.
There is, however, no public evidence that the Army has used spray-dried agents in recent biodefense projects, choosing instead to test small amounts of irradiated -- and therefore nonlethal -- anthrax bacteria that had been dried with older technologies.
In a written response to questions about the U.S. interpretation of the weapons convention, the Defense Department said its personnel may use live biological agents in a number of research settings: for vaccines and treatment; protective clothing and containment; alarms and detection; and decontamination.
The department "does not set quantitative thresholds for the agents or toxins in its possession," but "these quantities are generally small," the response said. "DOD continues to evaluate its procedures to ensure dangerous materials are safely stored and properly disposed of when no longer required."
----
Police raid 445 London homes, nab hundreds
By Al Webb
United Press International
October 28, 2002
http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20021028-090552-6099r.htm
LONDON, Oct. 28 (UPI) -- More than 1,000 detectives and police officers raided hundreds of homes across London in a 3-day blitz to crack down on serial burglars.
Stung into action by statistics showing burglaries on the increase in London yet again, police led personally by the chief of Scotland Yard, struck at dawn Friday, Sunday and Monday in what authorities described as "the biggest operation of its kind ever mounted" in Britain.
The 1,100 officers and detectives zeroed in on 445 homes across the capital and arrested 369 men and women, 237 of whom were suspected of thousands of burglaries in London and across southeast England. The rest were questioned in connection with other offenses, officials said.
Metropolitan Police Commissioner John Stevens led raids on homes in the Greenwich area of southeast London as part of the operation that he said was meant to "show the heavy impact we intend to make on burglary in London over the coming months."
Official figures showed burglaries in London last year were up 3.2 percent over the previous year and police said a comparatively small number of criminals -- some of whom were netted in the raids -- were responsible for most of them.
One of those nabbed Monday was a man in his 20s whom police described as a "prolific offender" -- a serial criminal blamed for some 600 burglaries, largely targeting older women.
A police source described him as a "one-man crime wave" who often conned his way into homes by pretending he was a plainclothes police officer. "He has toured the south of the country, preying on vulnerable, elderly ladies and wreaking havoc," the source told ITN Radio news.
The suspect has been convicted of two offenses, police conceded, but they said he will now have to answer to a further 600 charges when he goes to court next month for sentencing.
Another suspect was a 26-year-old man with 50 convictions for burglary. Police said he was released from prison only last week but by the weekend was back in the burglary business.
The raids were not without risk. At one house, authorities said, officers were attacked by a suspect who tried to stab them with a syringe -- "one reason," an officer said, "why a number of us went in wearing body armor."
Scotland Yard said the raids netted more than $685,000 worth of stolen goods, including computers, television sets, jewelry and cash -- and they expect to recover more as the blitz continues, probably well into the Christmas season.
The raids, Stevens said, "demonstrates our determination to put a stop to the activities of burglars and sends a clear message that anyone committing these crimes can expect to be arrested."
Police departments in Britain have faced accusations that they fail to tackle serious crimes hard enough and opt instead to deal with "softer" targets such as speeding and other traffic offenses.
Stevens said that the series of raids were meant to show that police were getting tough. "This operation is about making life difficult for burglars and capitalizing on improved forensic intelligence," he insisted.
----
THE DETAINEE
Court to Hear Arguments in Case of U.S. Citizen Seized With Taliban
October 28, 2002
New York Times
By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/28/national/28HAMD.html
WASHINGTON, Oct. 27 - Yasser Esam Hamdi, an American-born Saudi Arabian who was captured on the battlefield in Afghanistan, has been in solitary confinement in Virginia for more than six months. Sitting incommunicado in his windowless cell, he has inadvertently emerged as a central figure in a classic legal clash between national security and civil liberties.
The Bush administration considers Mr. Hamdi, 22, to be an "enemy combatant" and maintains that it is entirely within its rights to hold war captives, including American-born ones like him, until hostilities cease.
In the case of the war against terrorism, this could be indefinitely. In the administration's view, enemy combatants are threats to the nation's security and can be detained without due process both to pry information from them and to keep them from rejoining the enemy.
Even as American citizens, the administration argues, they have no right to judicial review of their status and may be held without charges, without bail and without access to a lawyer. This gives them fewer rights than ordinary criminal defendants or even foreigners who might face military tribunals.
Several civil liberties groups, a coalition of law professors, a task force from the American Bar Association and at least one federal judge say this is an improper assertion of executive power and have opposed the Bush administration on Mr. Hamdi's behalf. At a minimum, they say, he has a right to a lawyer, and ideally, a court should review his status.
On Monday, a three-judge panel of the Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit will hear arguments over the legality of his detention.
Mr. Hamdi's case appears to be the first in modern American jurisprudence in which an American citizen has been indefinitely detained without charges and without access to a lawyer. As such, it is emerging as the test case for whether the courts, and possibly the United States Supreme Court, will allow such detentions.
The answer could well determine whether the United States detains others under similar circumstances, and it could influence how the country fights terrorism.
The only two American citizens being held without charges are Mr. Hamdi and Jose Padilla, the so-called dirty bomb suspect, who is in a military brig in South Carolina. But as the fight against an amorphous worldwide terrorist network stretches into the future, the administration is clearly expecting more American captives and has discussed plans for a military detention camp for them, a sort of stateside Guantánamo Bay.
Because most Americans look back with shame at the internment of Japanese-Americans in World War II, legal experts argue that the Bush administration would surely want the imprimatur of a fresh Supreme Court ruling before creating a military detention camp of Americans considered enemy combatants.
"We have a lot of precedent for how things operate under the laws of war, but each conflict is unique," said Lee Casey, an expert in international law and a former legal official in the Reagan and first Bush administrations. "I think if would be good for everyone if we had guidance from the court."
Mr. Hamdi, or Mr. Padilla, could provide it. Analysts say the case of Mr. Padilla, who was detained in Chicago, not on a foreign battlefield, is more complex and might provide the court a chance for a broader ruling. But Mr. Hamdi's case is farther along in the pipeline.
Frank W. Dunham Jr., the federal public defender who was assigned to represent Mr. Hamdi but has been blocked by the government from meeting or speaking with him, argued in court papers that if the judges at Monday's hearing sided with the government, they would be endangering "fundamental constitutional protections guaranteed to every citizen" and creating "a vast power to imprison American citizens almost without review by the courts."
The government calls that argument overblown.
"Hamdi is by no stretch of the imagination an everyday American," Paul J. McNulty, the United States attorney in Alexandria, Va., and Paul D. Clement, the deputy solicitor general, wrote in court papers filed last week. "He surrendered with an enemy unit, armed with a military-style assault rifle, on a foreign battlefield. The Supreme Court long ago held that such an individual, even if he can establish American citizenship by birth or other means, is subject to capture and detention by the military during the conflict."
Mr. Hamdi was born in Baton Rouge, La., when his father, Esam Fouad Hamdi, a Saudi Arabian citizen and chemical engineer, was working on a petrochemical project with Exxon. When the boy was 3, the family moved back to Saudi Arabia. His father said in a telephone interview that his son, who was studying marketing at King Fahad University of Petroleum and Minerals, left in July 2001 for a combination of relief work and religious training in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The Bush administration says Mr. Hamdi became affiliated with a Taliban unit in Afghanistan. It says he received weapons training and remained with the unit after the Sept. 11 attacks and after the United States began bombing the Taliban and Al Qaeda on Oct. 7.
In November, Mr. Hamdi's unit surrendered to the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. In February he was flown in a cargo plane to prison in Guantánamo Bay. Although he spoke English and told the authorities that he was born in the United States, he remained at Guantánamo until April, when the military confirmed his American citizenship and flew him to the Navy brig in Norfolk, Va., where he remains today. (The military has set aside Guantánamo for non-Americans.)
Actually, Mr. Hamdi's plane from Guantánamo first landed at Dulles International Airport, outside Washington, leading to speculation that he would be charged in federal court in Virginia, where John Walker Lindh, another American captured on the Afghan battlefield, was being prosecuted. Under the law, a citizen returning to the United States is tried in the district where he arrives from abroad.
Shortly after landing at Dulles, the plane took off again for the Navy base at Norfolk. Mr. Dunham, the public defender, suggested that Mr. Hamdi had first landed at Dulles because the Justice Department was expected to charge him and try him in federal court, as it had Mr. Lindh. But, Mr. Dunham said, the plane's shift to Norfolk suggested that the Justice Department could not come up with any charges against him. The Justice Department has not commented on this issue.
Mr. Hamdi was assigned a public defender because of the assumption that criminal charges would be filed against him. Mr. Dunham immediately sought to interview his client to determine if he was indigent and needed a lawyer, but the Pentagon never responded. Since then, Mr. Dunham has represented Mr. Hamdi in numerous legal filings, but the government has intervened to bar him from seeing Mr. Hamdi.
On Monday, Mr. Dunham and the government are to argue in court over whether a Defense Department official's two-page, nine-paragraph statement is sufficient for the government to hold Mr. Hamdi without charges or access to a lawyer.
A lower court judge, Robert G. Doumar of Federal District Court, ruled in August that it was not sufficient. The government is appealing that ruling.
In court papers, the government argued that Mr. Hamdi's detention was lawful because Mr. Hamdi was captured on the battlefield. Mr. McNulty said that the decision to detain him was made by military personnel in Afghanistan and that a court-ordered re-examination of that process "would be unprecedented and could significantly hamper the nation's defense." The military, he said, is under no obligation to provide any more information with respect to captured combatants.
Mr. Dunham said, "Our position is that Hamdi should have an opportunity to know there's a proceeding going on in his name and to know that he has counsel."
A coalition of 18 civil liberties groups and 139 law professors is backing him. It says that the executive branch does not have the power to eliminate judicial review of Mr. Hamdi's rights by unilaterally assigning citizens "to an as-yet-undefined `enemy combatant' status."
Also backing Mr. Dunham is a task force of the American Bar Association, which says in a report that it makes no sense that Mr. Hamdi and Mr. Padilla have fewer rights than foreign citizens like Zacarias Moussaoui, whom the authorities have described as the "20th hijacker," and Richard Reid, the airline "shoe bomber." Mr. Reid, Mr. Moussaoui and Mr. Lindh all were charged in open court and had access to counsel.
The critics point to a 1971 law that says "no citizen shall be imprisoned or otherwise detained by the United States except pursuant to an Act of Congress." The bar association task force called on Congress to establish clear standards and procedures governing the detention of American citizens.
In response to the task force's report, William J. Haynes II, general counsel for the Defense Department, said the United States Patriot Act passed Sept. 18 by Congress authorized the president "to use all necessary and appropriate force" to protect the country against attacks.
"There is no due process or any other legal basis, under either domestic or international law, that entitles enemy combatants to legal counsel," Mr. Haynes said.
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THE TERROR NETWORK
Southeast Asia Remains Fertile for Al Qaeda
October 28, 2002
New York Times
By RAYMOND BONNER
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/28/international/asia/28ASIA.html
JAKARTA, Indonesia, Oct. 27 - The terrorist network that Osama bin Laden has stealthily built up in Southeast Asia over the past decade is largely intact, intelligence officials in several countries said in interviews over the last week. It may even have become more deadly and more virulently anti-American than it was a year ago, they say.
Not only that, they say, it may be harder to detect. Al Qaeda's men have become less likely to gather in camps, many of which have been bombed or closed. The main leaders of Al Qaeda's Southeast Asian network are at large, ready to activate sleeper cells, these officials said.
Consequently, Asian and Western officials in the region are virtually unanimous in expressing fears that the bombing in Bali on Oct. 12 was a harbinger for the United States and its allies.
Previously, Al Qaeda targeted embassies and official buildings - or symbolic ones like the World Trade Center - but now these are so well protected that Al Qaeda is turning to so-called soft targets, like resorts.
A sketch of Al Qaeda's network in Southeast Asia, how it emerged and what its deadly potential is today, has been pieced together from interviews with intelligence and law enforcement officials in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore, as well as with American, Australian and European diplomats. Much of what they know comes from the interrogation of recently captured Qaeda operatives.
But as officials begin to establish a profile of the network, they realize there were many warning signs going back to the early 1990's in the Philippines and Indonesia. That is when Mr. bin Laden sent some of his most trusted lieutenants to Southeast Asia, to blend into their communities, often through marriage, while making common cause with radical Islamic groups.
The most wanted terrorist in Southeast Asia today is Riudan Isamuddin, better known as Hambali, a Qaeda operative who has been instrumental in just about every terrorist action against the United States in the region in the last 10 years. Since the Bali bombing, which some investigators believe he masterminded, he has became the subject of an intensive manhunt by Indonesian authorities.
Officials are quick to acknowledge that their picture of Al Qaeda in Southeast Asia is incomplete, and it is as much what they do not know as what they now do that alarms them.
For example, hundreds of men in Southeast Asia have been trained at Qaeda camps, not only in Afghanistan, but also in the Philippines. "Who are they? Where are they?" asked an American intelligence official.
Although the camps used by Al Qaeda have been closed, that is little consolation to counterterrorism officials. Qaeda operatives need only a few safe houses to teach how to assemble explosives, said a Philippine intelligence officer, and houses are harder to find than camps.
To some experts, Al Qaeda looks like a multinational company, expanding its reach.
"Al Qaeda is the McDonald's of terrorism," said an Asian official. Mr. bin Laden sent his representatives to Southeast Asia and elsewhere, looking for potential franchisees, the official said. Then Al Qaeda provided the template for terrorist operations, and the local operators "were sent to Al Qaeda University in Afghanistan for training in explosives and weapons."
He described Mr. Hambali as the "managing director" for Southeast Asia. Unlike some corporate executives, he does not sit in his office, but gets out in the field and meets with his teams. As a young Islamic student in Indonesia, Mr. Hambali answered the call to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. Then, in the early 1990's, he moved to Malaysia.
From there, he became a recruiter and travel agent for inexperienced young men who wanted to go off to Afghanistan for training, or for those with experience who wanted to fight in religious wars from Bosnia to Indonesia. He arranged for at least two of the Sept. 11 hijackers to meet in Malaysia, in early 2000, and then travel to the United States. One of his front companies wrote a letter that allowed Zacharias Moussaoui to enter the United States. (Mr. Moussaoui is on trial in Virginia in connection with the Sept. 11 attacks.)
Mr. Hambali was present at the creation of what appears to be Al Qaeda's first major operational base in Southeast Asia, in the Philippines about a decade ago.
"Every major terrorist plot by Al Qaeda against the United States has some ties to the Philippines," Zachary Abuza, a professor at Simmons College, wrote in the recently published "Tentacles of Terror: Al Qaeda's Southeast Asian Network."
The Philippines, an overwhelmingly Catholic country, might seem like a most unlikely place to cultivate a radical Muslim insurgency. But on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, Muslims had been waging a war for an Islamic state for 20 years, and in the 1980's, hundreds of Filipino Muslims fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Once they returned, they were ripe for recruiting into Mr. bin Laden's army for his new war, against the United States.
In the early 1990's, Mr. bin Laden assigned a brother-in-law, Muhammad Jamal Khalifa, to the Philippine mission. Mr. Khalifa married a Philippine woman and set up an import-export company as his cover, and to explain the movement of large amounts of money, much of supplied by Mr. Hambali, who set up front companies in Malaysia.
Using a charity, Mr. Khalifa funneled money to two militant Muslim groups that became affiliated with Al Qaeda, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and Abu Sayyaf. Thousands of Islamic fighters from these groups went to Afghanistan for training, and returned to fight against the Philippine government.
But separately, Mr. bin Laden set up a cell in Manila whose target was the United States. All cell members were Arabs. He entrusted the cell to Ramzi Yousef and Mr. Yousef's uncle Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, both of whom had taken part in the planning of the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center.
Mr. Yousef was arrested in Pakistan in 1995 and is serving a life sentence in the United States. Mr. Mohammed is still at large, and is now on the Federal Bureau of Investigation's most wanted terrorist list. American officials have said that he was a key planner of the Sept. 11 attacks.
Back in 1994, in Manila, they worked on a plan to blow up 11 American airliners over the Pacific. The plot was foiled when chemicals exploded in Mr. Yousef's Manila apartment. Helped by the network, he fled to Malaysia, where Mr. Hambali had his base, and on to Pakistan, where he was captured.
Looking back, American officials now say that Al Qaeda's Manila operations should have alerted them. "That was the real sign we should have paid attention to," a former American intelligence official in the region said.
A few months after Mr. Yousef fled, Omar al-Faruq showed up, sent by Mr. bin Laden. Mr. Faruq, who was seized in Indonesia and turned over to the Americans last June, has become a major source of information about Al Qaeda's network and operations in Southeast Asia.
Mr. Faruq had a dual mission - to work with Islamic radicals in the Philippines and to prepare terrorist attacks on American interests, Philippine officials said.
He tried to get the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and Abu Sayyaf to work together, which would have been a deadly team for Al Qaeda. But Abu Sayyaf degenerated into a group of bandits who engaged in kidnapping for ransom.
Al Qaeda's relationship with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front was more fruitful. At Mr. bin Laden's request, the front opened its Camp Abubakar to foreign jihadists, which meant they did not all have to go to Afghanistan.
Three other camps for foreigners were opened in the 1990's - Camp Palestine, primarily for Arabs; Camp Vietnam and Camp Hudaibie, for Malaysians and Indonesians. More than 1,500 Indonesians went through the camps, then returned to Indonesia, where they presumably are today, a Philippine official said.
In 2000, the Philippine Army basically demolished Camp Abubakar, and today the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is engaged in peace talks with the Philippine government.
When the Philippines became a bit less friendly, Mr. bin Laden turned more aggressively to Indonesia after Suharto fell in 1998. With more than 200 million Muslims living under a repressive government, it was ripe recruiting ground.
Once again, there was a movement for Al Qaeda to tap into, in this case Jemaah Islamiyah, which sought to establish an Islamic state across Southeast Asia. Its leader was Abu Bakar Bashir, and the chief of operations was Mr. Hambali. Last week, it was declared a terrorist organization by the United States.
In the early 1990's, American intelligence discovered that Jemaah Islamiyah was sending scores of young Muslim men to training camps in Afghanistan. When the Americans presented evidence of this to Indonesian officials, they said they were not concerned, and the United States did not push the issue, a former American intelligence official said.
In 1999, just after the repressive Suharto dictatorship was toppled, Al Qaeda set up a training camp in central Sulawesi. Hundreds of men went through the camp, including at least 200 Arabs, Indonesian intelligence officials said. The camp was closed after the Sept. 11 attacks.
Mr. bin Laden also sent Mr. Faruq to Indonesia. There, he married an Indonesian woman and immediately hooked up with Jemaah Islamiyah.
Mr. Bashir gave money and volunteers to Mr. Faruq for terrorist plots. Working together, Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah were also plotting in the most unlikely of places, Singapore, which has the tightest security in Asia, if not the world. The possible targets included the American Embassy and other places frequented by American servicemen.
But the plot was foiled when Singaporean authorities discovered it and arrested many of the participants.
Malaysian and Singaporean authorities say they have neutralized Jemaah Islamiyah and Al Qaeda in their countries, an assessment supported by Western governments. But few other nations can make that statement with any confidence.
"It is universally accepted that the United States has done a great deal in dismantling the terrorist machine in Afghanistan," a senior Philippine intelligence official said. But, he said, "their network and contacts in Southeast Asia are still in place, and it is more radical now."
"We cannot discount the reality that these people have the capacity to do a Bali here," another senior Philippine official said.
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Feds Want Terror Report Kept Secret
October 28, 2002
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/national/AP-Terror-Suspect.html
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A classified document describing terror suspect Jose Padilla's multiple contacts with top al-Qaida leaders should remain secret, federal prosecutors said in court papers filed Monday.
Lawyers for Padilla, a former Chicago gang member accused of plotting to detonate a radioactive ``dirty bomb,'' say U.S. District Judge Michael Mukasey of New York should not review the classified document because prosecutors have refused to share it with them. The case involves whether Padilla should be held as an enemy combatant.
In the federal filing, U.S. Attorney James Comey of New York contends that an unclassified version of the document includes most of the key information regarding Padilla's contacts with al-Qaida in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The classified version, prosecutors said, is intended to provide the judge with intelligence information about Padilla's status as an enemy combatant.
``The need to maintain confidentiality here is most compelling, because the intelligence information at issue arises in the midst of an ongoing armed conflict'' against terrorism, prosecutors say. ``Disclosure of classified intelligence information could compromise intelligence-gathering crucial to the ongoing war effort'' by revealing sources and methods.
Padilla has been held since his May 8 arrest as an enemy combatant, which the government says means he can be held without charge. Padilla's lawyers contend he is being held illegally.
Monday's government filing also contends that if the judge agrees that Padilla is a combatant, he is not entitled to legal representation.
-------- ENERGY AND OTHER
-------- environment
Farmers turn to organic methods
October 28, 2002
AP
http://www.washtimes.com/metro/20021028-87359496.htm
COLONIAL BEACH, Va. - Farmer James W. Wilkerson sprays his young soybeans with a concoction made from garlic to keep deer from eating them.
He recently spread a 40-ton pile of fresh chicken manure on his fields for fertilizer.
But he didn't always farm like this.
He began a transition to organic farming back in 1996, when he started using chicken litter as fertilizer.
The application of the recent 40-ton pile was the first step in a three-year process to certify the 235-acre farm as organic cropland.
"It would blow a buzzard off a gut wagon," said Ed Turley, a neighbor whose home sat 240 feet from the pile.
Mr. Wilkerson said the manure was fresh "and had more odor than normal. If I had known it was that strong in ammonia, I would have dumped it farther away from his house."
The farmer raises crops on 2,400 acres in Westmoreland, King George, Caroline and Spotsylvania counties. On almost half of them, he raises organic corn, barley, wheat, soybeans and alfalfa with no commercial fertilizers, no genetically modified plants, no chemical herbicides and no insecticides.
Mr. Wilkerson isn't the only farmer with these practices. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), organic farming is one of the fastest-growing segments of U.S. agriculture. The number of organic farmers is increasing by about 12 percent per year. And the number now stands at about 12,200 nationwide, with most of them small-scale producers.
Retail sales of organic foods also are growing by 20 percent or more each year. According to the USDA, more organic food was sold in conventional supermarkets in 2000 than in the country's 20,000 natural-food stores.
Mr. Wilkerson markets his crops to organic-food producers in the Northeast. His wheat goes to bakers of organic breads, and his alfalfa hay goes to organic dairies.
His interest in organic farming began in 1992, when he attended a meeting on the topic organized by M.R. Fulks, owner of the 652-acre Belvedere Plantation in Spotsylvania.
Mr. Fulks had persistent problems in his irrigated corn crop, and he concluded that commercial fertilizers were the culprit.
"Some commercial fertilizers and farm chemicals destroy the good bacteria in soil that are necessary for the plants to get nutrients from the soil. If the plants can't get nutrients from the soil, they can't produce the nutrients we need," he said.
Commercial fertilizers also leach out of soils and degrade water quality, Mr. Fulks said. He said he believes that increases in cancer and other diseases are "absolutely food-related."
Like Mr. Fulks, Mr. Wilkerson is concerned about water quality. He owns Wilkerson's Seafood Restaurant at Potomac Beach and leases 130 acres of oyster grounds in the creek bordering the farm where he applied the smelly fertilizer.
"My family have always been oyster planters," he said. "In our farming operations, we were looking for ways to cut back on herbicides and farm chemicals that affect water quality. Organic farming seemed like the way to go."
The transition from conventional farming to organic farming is neither quick nor easy, Mr. Wilkerson said.
Farm fields must be free of commercial fertilizers and chemicals for three years before being certified for organic crops. Annual audits by a USDA-certified agent, along with rigorous record-keeping, are required.
Organic farming, Mr. Wilkerson said, "is like we used to farm 50 years ago."
Weeds are controlled by cultivation rather than by chemicals. Seed beds are carefully tilled, and cover crops like clover are planted and plowed in to increase fertility.
What's Mr. Wilkerson's biggest problem as an organic farmer?
"We can't plant soybeans on some farms, because of the deer. They totally destroyed 100 acres on one of our farms in King George," he said.
That's why he sprays his soybeans with organic garlic.
------- ACTIVISTS
Archbishop warns on Iraq
Jamie Wilson
Monday October 28, 2002
The Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,820658,00.html
The outgoing Archbishop of Canterbury, George Carey, yesterday used his final Sunday in office to warn the government not to go to war with Iraq.
Dr Carey said he was not convinced by the argument proposed by Tony Blair that military action against Saddam Hussein was justified.
"We must pursue all diplomatic and political means," Dr Carey told BBC1's Breakfast with Frost.
The archbishop, who delivered his final Sunday sermon yesterday, told his successor, Rowan Williams, to enjoy the job, before urging the Church of England to stay committed to the big picture and not allow internal quarrels to "get in the way".
On the issue of falling congregations, Dr Carey said the church was in a "much more competitive arena" because of the "deregulation of the Sabbath", but he hailed the opening of churches seven days a week.
Dr Carey said the issue of heirs to the throne being allowed to marry a Catholic was up for discussion. And of the prospect of the Prince of Wales marrying Camilla Parker Bowles, he said: "We must wait and see what happens. Prince Charles has clearly said he has no intention to marry, and we take him at his word. I am in regular contact with him and this matter has not come up."
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