----------- activists

Ill workers will testify in Washington

By Laura Frank
http://www.tennessean.com/sii/00/03/16/testify16.shtml

Three nuclear weapons workers and an ill worker's daughter will carry the plight of their ailing cohorts to Capitol Hill next week to testify before one of the most powerful Senate committees.

U.S. Sens. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., and George Voinovich, R-Ohio, yesterday released the list of people who will appear Wednesday before the Governmental Affairs committee, which is exploring how the federal government has handled health and safety issues at nuclear weapons plants.

Thompson is chairman of the committee.

"This is something we've worked on for five years," said Ann Orick, an ill Oak Ridge worker who will testify. "This is probably our one and only opportunity. We've got to take advantage of it."

Meanwhile, a team of doctors hired in 1997 to determine whether some Oak Ridge workers' ailments are related to toxic exposure from the site announced they will report their official findings at the end of next month.

Thompson and Voinovich announced the hearings last fall because, they said, the U.S. Department of Energy was not giving the sites in their states equal attention to the weapons fuel plant in Paducah, Ky., where workers have filed a massive lawsuit.

Legislation is pending in Congress to compensate some ill nuclear weapons workers: those with lung damage from the metal beryllium, those from the Paducah site with certain cancers and a group of Oak Ridge workers. That group is expected to be determined at the end of April, when the DOE-hired doctors announce findings of their three-year investigation.

Thompson said the March 22 hearing will focus on how best to compensate ill workers.

Other people who will testify include:

Vikki Hatfield of Kingston, Tenn., whose father is a former Oak Ridge worker now dying of kidney failure and berylliosis, a lung disease caused by the metal beryllium, which was used in atomic bombs.

Sam Ray of Lucasville, Ohio, who retired in 1995 from the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion plant near Piketon, Ohio, after 41 years. He suffers from chondrosarcoma, a cancer of the cartilage in his throat.

Jeff Walburn of Greenup, Ky., a security guard at the Portsmouth site for 23 years, who suffers respiratory problems after a 1994 accident at the site.

Dr. Steven Markowitz of the City University of New York Medical School, who is leading a study of former nuclear fuel production workers at Oak Ridge, Portsmouth and Paducah.

David Michaels, assistant U.S. energy secretary for environment, safety and health.

"I realize the gravity of this," Walburn said of his upcoming testimony and the fact he will speak for dozens of other workers who will not have a chance to testify.

During the past three years, The Tennessean has interviewed more than 400 atomic weapons site workers and neighbors who suffer a host of mysterious illnesses. Many of the ailments are immune, neurological and respiratory problems. Others are more difficult to define, such as severe fatigue, rashes and pain.

Last July, President Clinton ordered a review of whether evidence existed that nuclear workers' health had been harmed.

----------- alternative energy

Fuel-cell future for gasoline?
Researchers run 'green' engine on hydrocarbons

By Miguel Llanos MSNBC, March 15, 2000
http://www.msnbc.com/news/382483.asp?cp1=1

The few fuel-cell vehicles on the road, like this bus in Vancouver, Canada, use a cell different from the one cited in Nature. But both are much cleaner than traditional. The debut of this bus in October 1998 included a toast with the exhaust's only emission: water vapor.

March 15 - Researchers announced Wednesday a breakthrough that could lead to fuel cells powered by gasoline, giving drivers two to three times more mileage. The advance could speed up what fuel-cell advocates see as the demise of the internal combustion engine.

"WE'VE DEMONSTRATED that we can run a fuel cell directly on hydrocarbons like gasoline and diesel," researcher Ray Gorte told MSNBC. "In the past, everyone assumed you had to use hydrogen." Fuel cells essentially are high-tech batteries that draw electrical current from reactions between chemicals. Unlike a battery, however, they do not run down or need recharging as long as they are supplied with fuel. NASA has used them for years to power space missions.

Essentially, the University of Pennsylvania fuel cell streamlines the fuel-cell process. Until now, supplying hydrogen to fuel cells was seen as the best way to power them. The new process gets hydrogen directly from hydrocarbons like gasoline, diesel or natural gas, so there's no need for extracting hydrogen from costlier and more complicated sources like methane.

And because fuel cells are two to three times more efficient than internal combustion engines in how they use energy, a gasoline fuel cell could get two to three times the mileage of a traditional engine.

The new process not only gets around the problem of delivering and storing hydrogen, Gorte says, it means a fuel cell that produces "less carbon dioxide for a given amount of energy" than other fuel cells because higher efficiency can be achieved. Many scientists fear carbon dioxide is a key contributor to warmer temperatures around the globe.

The "fossil" fuel cell would still be limited by Earth's finite supply of hydrocarbons, but it could provide a valuable interim technology that's easier to deploy and still provide much cleaner and higher mileage than internal combustion engines.

Reported in Wednesday's issue of the peer-reviewed journal Nature, the study was funded by the Chicago-based Gas Research Institute, which hopes the cells could be used in the home to produce electricity from natural gas.

NO 'REFINERY' NEEDED

Gorte, head of chemical engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, sees the research as a "breakthrough," saying an earlier attempt to use gasoline essentially required putting "a refinery in your trunk" to get the hydrogen.

The test also used a different kind of fuel cell than the type most researchers and fuel-cell companies have focused on. Gorte's team used a "solid oxide fuel cell," while others have tended to focus on "proton-exchange membranes." Gorte emphasized that the the experiment was not on a commercial scale and that long-term testing is needed. One hitch is that the cell is sensitive to sulfur, so that gasoline would have to be cleaned further to make it a viable fuel.

Moreover, the small-scale fuel cell churns out only one-tenth of the power of a hydrogen fuel cell. But Gorte is optimistic about its potential, saying his team hopes to work with a major car company that has created a solid oxide fuel cell division. He would not identify the company, saying he wasn't sure if it was willing to go public yet. Shorter term, possibly within a decade, the fuel cell could be used for portable generators for businesses and homes.

NATURE'S SOLUTION?

Kevin Kendall, a chemical engineer at Britain's University of Birmingham, writes in a Nature article accompanying the study that while hydrogen is "the ultimate clean power source of the future" it is still expensive to extract it, difficult to store and prone to explosion.

The new research, he adds, provides an interim technology by tapping into the hydrogen stored naturally in hydrocarbons. "Nature seems to achieve this with ease through biochemical routes" described in the study, he notes.

Kendall even ventures that fuel-cell progress will go beyond just replacing internal combustion engines, as well as their noise and pollutants. "By the end of the century," he writes, "these fiery combustion processes may be banned."

------- canada

More workers claim they were exposed to radiation at colliery

Updated: Thu, Mar 16 06:22 PM EST
http://news.excite.ca/news/ap/000316/18/miner-radiation

LINGAN, N.S. (CP) - A total of 42 miners claim they were exposed to radiation while working at the Phalen Colliery in Lingan. The men, who work for the Cape Breton Development Corp., or Devco, were exposed while they worked near a faulty fixed gauge that uses a beam of radiation to identify obstructions in the coal chute.

Initially, 10 men said they were exposed to the excessive levels of radiation.

Hugh MacArthur, health and safety officer for the United Mine Workers District 26, met with Atomic Energy Control Board officials in Sydney this week to discuss the issue.

MacArthur said the officials gave him forms to distribute to the men, which scientists will use to calculate exposure levels.

MacArthur said he isn't surprised more men are coming forward with concerns. He said Devco is responsible for the exposures because the workers were never properly trained how to use the device.

"The fact was that these guys were never trained, so they didn't know how to shut the shutter and they were being exposed," he said.

A 38-year-old worker who cleaned the device for more than 12 years developed bladder cancer two months before the radiation leak was detected.

Devco pleaded guilty to at a March hearing to failing to ensure proper training for those working with radioactive material.

The federal Crown corporation was originally charged with 11 items of non-compliance under the Atomic Energy Control Act. The Crown withdrew four charges.

An inspection by the Atomic Energy Control Board last July uncovered the faulty radiation device known as a fixed gauge.

A judge will hear sentencing recommendations May 12. (Cape Breton Post)

------- china

China's Nuclear Threat: Will America Blink?

CBN News Politics Commentary,
by Michael Patrick,
March 16, 2000

It has been a long time since any nation made not-so-veiled threats to rain down nuclear-tipped missiles on American homes, or that U.S. leaders appeared so dangerously nonchalant about the warning signs.

This week, China's Premier Zhu Rongji again wagged his finger at Taiwan and the United States, warning that China is prepared to use massive military force to prevent independence and reunify the island nation with the mainland.

Zhu's comments followed the release earlier this month of China's detailed war plans against the United States and Taiwan. Those plans call for an extended war with the U.S., including the potential launch of a nuclear arsenal against America, if the U.S. intervened on Taiwan's behalf.

According to a transcript published in Insight magazine, the Chinese war plans declared that "it is better to fight now than (in the) future--the earlier, the better."

The conventional wisdom is that Zhu's comments are more aimed at propping up his politically weak position, and corralling the growing Chinese military establishment that is itching for a fight. But real threats to the United States are unmistakably clear.

Some Asia watchers anticipate that recent talks between North Korea and China could signal a possible coordinated challenge to the U.S. presence in the Asian Pacific region. North Korea's military has engaged in a new surge of military exercises, fueled in part by fungible Western aid. Some analysts believe that North Korea's leader, Kim Jong II, could be influenced to spark a confrontation on the Peninsula, and give China more leverage in curbing the U.S. temptation to come to Taiwan's aid in a military showdown. There is ample evidence that hawks in Pyongyang and Beijing believe that they could benefit from a limited conflict.

Unfortunately, the United States may be perceived as being at its most vulnerable, militarily and politically, this year. The White House has repeatedly failed to develop coherent responses to multiple challenges by China or North Korea in recent months. China has effectively neutered the Clinton administration's political credibility through a spate of spying escapades, high technology transfers and compromising fund-raising scandals.

Also, America's readiness to deal with a potential conflict is at a critically low ebb. A recent poll showed most Americans are unwilling to go to war to protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Further, most military officers will attest that the U.S. armed forces have been bled dangerously dry in the past decade. While the U.S. can still muster the world's mightiest military force, we may not have the political will or capability to sustain a defensive force in conflict half a world away.

The Chinese are apparently counting on it. In their war plans against America, they wrote, "the U.S. will lose its will to fight and withdraw after suffering serious casualties, while the Chinese side will be able to absorb heavy casualties and prevail."

America wasn't always so ready to blink. In October 1962, when President Kennedy was threatened with nuclear missiles based in Cuba, he held a firm American line, circled Cuba with warships and prevented nuclear war.

But times have changed. Our nation's greatest weakness may reside in our national character, rather than in our military readiness. In June 1982, President Ronald Reagan defined the courage and character necessary to prevent war. He said:

"Our military strength is a prerequisite to peace, but let it be clear that we maintain this strength in the hope it will never be used, for the ultimate determinant in the struggle that's now going on in the world will not be bombs and rockets but a test of wills and ideas, a trial of spiritual resolve, the values we hold, the beliefs we cherish, the ideas to which we are dedicated."

The importance of foreign policy that stands tall against tyranny was largely missing in the latest presidential candidate debates. However, the problems created by an absence of leadership may only fester on several fronts in the months ahead, especially if China further tests American resolve in Asia.

Once again, America is waking up slowly to the reality that we live in a more dangerous world than our over-optimistic stock market prosperity would tell us. Presaging the fall of the Soviet empire, former President Reagan argued that "given strong leadership, time, and a little bit of hope, the forces of good ultimately rally and triumph over evil."

Let us hope that we find the answers in prayer, revival, and renewed leadership and national will-- before it is too late.

Michael Patrick is Senior Analyst for CBN News.

------

Premier Zhu Don Corleone

Washington Post
Thursday, March 16, 2000; Page A26
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/2000-03/16/121l-031600-idx.html

IN THE COMMON Western conception, China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji is the pragmatist and the reformer in the pantheon of Communist rulers. Yesterday, in a news conference on Taiwan and other matters, he sounded more like a Mafia kingpin. He warned Taiwan voters to follow Beijing's preferences in Taiwan's coming presidential election--or else. "Otherwise, I'm afraid you won't get another opportunity to regret," he said. Anyone who advocates independence will "not end up well," he went on. And he mocked Western experts who dismiss Chinese threats by arguing reassuringly that China lacks the military strength to invade Taiwan. "People making such calculations don't know about Chinese history," the prime minister said. "The Chinese people are ready to shed blood and sacrifice their lives to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the mother land."

China experts in the West will hasten to explain why Mr. Zhu's words do not mean what they appear to mean. The prime minister, a chief advocate for China's entry into the World Trade Organization and therefore suspect to party hard-liners, is only seeking to burnish his nationalist credentials, it will be said. Or he is only looking for maximal impact on Taiwan's election, in which Beijing would like to see opposition (and formerly pro-independence) candidate Chen Shui-bian defeated. With bellicose rhetoric, he hopes to scare sufficient numbers of voters away from Mr. Chen.

It seems prudent, though, at least to entertain the notion that--even if the above theories are correct--Mr. Zhu also means what he says, that his regime is prepared to use force against Taiwan. China's rulers view Taiwan as a renegade province; Hong Kong and Macau have been folded back into the People's Republic, and now only Taiwan remains. Moreover, China's Communists may see this kind of jingoism as their best chance for maintaining power; not even they claim to believe in communism anymore, after all, and they certainly can claim no democratic mandate. Taiwan's greatest threat to them, in fact, is as an example. The island is a prospering democracy, proving that Chinese people are capable of governing themselves, and this week's hard-fought election only reinforces that.

The U.S. posture has been one of "strategic ambiguity": The United States does not explicitly ally itself with Taiwan, but neither does it rule out coming to Taiwan's defense. The idea is to discourage China from attacking while also discouraging Taiwan from provocatively declaring independence. This policy has served well, but it is wearing thin, both because the Clinton administration has tilted unnecessarily toward Beijing and because Beijing's policy has become less and less ambiguous. Yesterday Mr. Zhu explicitly mocked President Clinton's call for a "shift from threat to dialogue."

It's right for Mr. Clinton nonetheless to continue urging peaceful dialogue. It's right to keep warning Taiwan that the United States will not support provocative gestures. But Mr. Clinton also should make clear that the United States will help defend Taiwan if it is attacked simply for being a democracy--for, say, electing a president displeasing to Don Zhu. Ambiguity does not offer the best deterrence against bullies or Mafia dons.

-----------

U.S. Sees No Sign China Readying Taiwan Attack

March 16, 2000
By Reuters
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/international/international-china-u.html

TOKYO (Reuters) - Defense Secretary William Cohen said on Friday he saw no signs China was preparing to attack Taiwan, but warned Beijing that the use of force was not an acceptable way for the two rivals to settle their differences.

Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji on Wednesday told the people of Taiwan, which China regards as a maverick province, that the Communist mainland might not give them a second chance if they vote for a pro-independence candidate in Saturday's presidential elections.

``We do not see any evidence of preparation for attack, any imminent attack. What we do see is a war of words,'' Cohen said in response to a question at a news conference at the end of his three-day visit to Japan.

``They appear to be trying to affect the outcome of the election with a show of words.''

But Cohen added that he did not think the voters of democratic Taiwan would be affected by cross-strait pressure from Beijing.

Cohen reiterated U.S. warnings to China against the use of military force and again said the United States does not support independence for Taiwan and urges peaceful settlement of the issue. Increases in China's military forces facing Taiwan ``will only serve to increase pressure'' in the U.S. Congress to sell more defensive arms to Taiwan, he said.

The United States, angered by blunt Chinese threats against Taiwan as it prepares to elect a new president, called in Ambassador Li Zhaoxing on Thursday in Washington to urge Beijing to tone down its rhetoric.

------

China's military links forces to boost power

March 16, 2000
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
http://www.washtimes.com/world/default-20003162315.htm

China's military has a new battle management system that will boost its ability to fight wars with combined army, navy and air forces, The Washington Times has learned.

Details of the new system were contained in a classified Defense Intelligence Agency report sent to senior officials recently. The report said Beijing's newest satellite, launched in January, is a military communications satellite and a major component of the first integrated command, control, communications, computer and intelligence system (C4I).

The new system, called Qu Dian by China, gives the Chinese military new capabilities for coordinating and supporting its growing force of modern aircraft, ships, submarines and ground forces.

"This is a major force multiplier," said one official.

A Defense Intelligence Agency spokeswoman declined to comment.

Disclosure of the new battle management system comes amid rising tensions that include a series of threats by Chinese leaders against Taiwan and the United States. The threats have been timed to Taiwanese elections Saturday and efforts to influence the issue of Taiwan's status and U.S. efforts to defend the island against forcible reunification with the mainland.

China launched the satellite, reported by official Chinese media as a civilian ChinaSat-22 system, on Jan. 26 from Xichang in southwestern China.

The DIA identified the satellite as Feng Huo-1, the first of several military communications satellites for the Qu Dian C4I system, said defense officials familiar with the report.

Officials also said the military satellite was launched atop a Long March rocket booster - the same system that was improved as a result of two U.S. companies improperly sharing space technology in 1996.

An initial test of a subsystem known as the Tactical Information System will be carried out by Chinese defense technicians in the next several weeks, the report said.

Officials who disclosed details of the DIA report on the condition of anonymity said the Chinese military is describing the new information system as similar to the Pentagon's Joint Tactical Information Distribution System or JTIDS - a secure communications network used by U.S. and allied aircraft, ships, submarines and ground units to communicate and share intelligence in wartime.

The Pentagon describes that system as "a secure, jam-resistant, high capacity data link communications system for use in a tactical combat."

"The Chinese reference to JTIDS suggests the Tactical Information System will yield an integrated battlefield picture, centralizing data from ground, air and naval platforms for wide dissemination to subordinate units," the report, labeled "secret," stated.

"Chinese work is progressing on both the software and hardware to increase the integration and automation of command and control systems," the report said.

The new FH-1 satellite is the first space-based communication platform to provide military units with both C-band and UHF communications, according to the DIA.

The intelligence report concluded that when fully deployed in the next several years the Qu Dian system "will allow theater commanders to communicate with and share data with all forces under joint command."

The system will provide Chinese military leaders with "a high-speed and real-time view of the battlefield which would allow them to direct units under joint command more effectively," the report states.

According to the officials, the CIA offered a dissenting view of the DIA's assessment, stating in the report that "rigidity" of the Chinese military command structure will limit the effectiveness of the new military system.

Larry Wortzel, a former Pentagon China specialist now with the Heritage Foundation, said it is "dangerous" for U.S. analysts to systematically play down each improvement of Chinese military capabilities.

The new Chinese system will "improve command and control and when the system is in use and used in exercises it will help improve decision-making," Mr. Wortzel said.

"It took the PLA about four years to learn to use the computer-based war-fighting simulation system it was given by the U.S. Army in 1998, and they'll learn to use this system, too," he said.

China's official Xinhua news agency stated that the new communications satellite was built by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. and was launched on a Long March 3A booster. The agency said Feb. 6 that the satellite was in a stationary position above the equator at a point 98 degrees latitude.

The use of the Long March with a military payload shows that China uses its space launchers for both civilian and military purposes, and that improvements to the launchers would have consequences for U.S. national security.

Components of the new system are being tested amid a war of words over Taiwan. Chinese officials and official military publications have warned in recent weeks that Taiwan independence "means war."

The official People's Liberation Army newspaper, Liberation Army Daily, three weeks ago threatened the United States with "long-range strikes" - nuclear missile attacks - against the United States if it intervenes to defend Taiwan from a Chinese military strike.

Adm. Dennis Blair, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told a House Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday that Chinese leaders believe resolution of the Taiwan dispute "may come to fighting."

As for the so-called policy of "ambiguity" about a U.S. defense of Taiwan in the event of a mainland attack, Adm. Blair made it clear the U.S. military is ready.

"As far as the military situation, I hope I made it clear the ambiguity is the political decision, not the military capabilities. The PRC cannot take and hold Taiwan, and we can defend Taiwan if ordered. And that's what will happen," he said.

The Chinese recently have deployed several hundred new M-11 short-range missiles that the DIA has said could strike all of Taiwan's military bases with little or no warning.

-----

China Threatens Voters in Taiwan
Premier Issues Warning Near Election

Washington Post
Thursday, March 16, 2000; Page A01
By Clay Chandler Washington Post Foreign Service
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/2000-03/16/270l-031600-idx.html

BEIJING, March 15-Three days before a closely contested presidential election in Taiwan, Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji bluntly warned the island's voters today against choosing a pro-independence leader, saying the future rides on their selection.

"Let me advise all these people in Taiwan," Zhu said. "Do not just act on impulse at this juncture, which will decide the future course that China and Taiwan will follow. Otherwise I'm afraid you won't get another opportunity to regret."

Zhu's ultimatum, delivered before foreign reporters at the close of the annual meeting of the Chinese legislature, the National People's Congress, was the latest--and loudest--salvo in an increasingly bellicose rhetorical assault aimed at Taiwan. It seemed designed in particular to dissuade Taiwanese from voting for Chen Shui-bian, a candidate in the dead-heat race who has repeatedly said that Taiwan is an independent country and China should treat it that way.

Although the prime minister did not specifically threaten an attack, his warning came against a background of repeated declarations that China would resort to military action if Taiwan were invaded by a foreign power, declared independence or put off talks "indefinitely" on reunification with the mainland.

The war of words escalated last year when the outgoing Taiwanese president, Lee Teng-hui, infuriated Beijing by saying the time had come for Taiwan and China to deal with each other as separate and equal states. Although most Taiwanese regard their land as a country, China has considered it a renegade province since Chiang Kai-shek's defeated Nationalists took refuge there when Mao Zedong and his Communist forces seized power in 1949.

Zhu's warning today constituted an overt attempt to influence the outcome of Taiwan's election Saturday, and it defied the Clinton administration's wishes that Beijing avoid antagonizing Congress before a much-publicized vote on U.S.-Chinese trade relations.

U.S. defense officials expressed concern that Zhu, long seen as a moderate, came out with such a hawkish statement so close to Taiwan's elections. "It's extremely unhelpful," said one senior official.

Zhu's manner today contrasted starkly with his image as an even-tempered pragmatist. He drove home his comments in emphatic tones and in several instances shouted into the microphones before him.

"No matter who comes into power in Taiwan, Taiwan will never be allowed to be independent," he vowed. "This is our bottom line and the will of 1.25 billion Chinese people."

Zhu also rebuked American politicians for what he characterized as meddling in China's internal affairs. He warned outsiders seeking solace in the perception that China lacks sufficient military might to take Taiwan not to underestimate the depths of Beijing's resolve.

"People making such calculations don't know about Chinese history," he declared. "The Chinese people are ready to shed blood and sacrifice their lives to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the motherland."

Zhu's comments could be seen as an effort to shore up his position within the Chinese leadership. Since his trip to the United States last April, when he negotiated the initial terms for China's accession to the World Trade Organization that many decried as too conciliatory, Zhu has drawn criticism on Web sites and in Internet chat rooms here as a "traitor" and "lover of America."

In today's remarks, Zhu seemed to go out of his way to counter such perceptions. Indeed, some of his statements about U.S. leaders dripped with sarcasm. For example, Zhu took a direct swipe at President Clinton, quoting from a recent speech at Johns Hopkins University in which the president called for "a shift from threat to dialogue across the Taiwan Strait."

Switching to English, Zhu recommended a two-word revision to Clinton's statement. What the American president should have said, Zhu admonished, was that there must be "a shift from threat to dialogue across the Pacific Ocean."

A senior Clinton administration official said in Washington that Clinton had "sought to be constructive" in his comments. The official warned that failing to resolve the Taiwan issue "would be very harmful to the interests of everyone concerned."

"We continue to uphold our 'one China' policy, urge the two sides to engage in dialogue, and insist that there be a peaceful resolution to cross-strait differences," said State Department spokesman James P. Rubin. "We have repeatedly encouraged both the People's Republic of China and Taiwan to pursue steps to reduce tensions across the strait."

Beijing's rhetoric on reunification took a turn on Feb. 21 with the release of a white paper from the Taiwan Affairs Office. The document stated explicitly that China would use military force to take control of Taiwan if the island's political leaders attempt to put off the question of reunification with the mainland "indefinitely."

Since the white paper, top Chinese leaders have reiterated the invasion threat. Their statements have been interpreted as an effort to frighten Taiwan's voters away from Chen, whose Democratic Progressive Party has urged that Taiwan declare independence.

[The latest comments came Thursday when a Beijing academic implied at a cabinet-sponsored news conference that China could use force against Taiwan if the island elects a pro-independence candidate. Answering a question about China's timetable for unification with Taiwan, Li Jiaquan said it could be as long as a few years or as short as 24 hours.

"If Taiwan goes along the path of peaceful unification, it could take a long time, but if Taiwan moves toward independence, then there could be change in three to five years or within 24 hours," said Li, a research fellow at the Institute of Taiwan Studies in the state-controlled Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.]

Zhu's comments dominated television news broadcasts this evening in Taiwan. In Taipei, the top official on China policy denounced Zhu's declaration.

"Mr. Zhu, among other People's Republic of China officials, has no right to say anything about our election," Su Chi, chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, told Reuters.

Chen, meanwhile, told a campaign rally that Taiwanese voters will not be intimidated by what he called the "terror card." "Taiwan is a sovereign, independent country," he added, according to the Associated Press. "It's not a part of the People's Republic of China."

The white paper has had no discernible effect on voter support for any of Taiwan's three presidential contenders, and many pollsters say the race remains too close to call.

Zhu, describing Taiwan's ballot as a "local election" that should therefore be decided by local voters, did not endorse a specific candidate. Most analysts, though, regard independent James Soong, a former Lee protege who espouses a more conciliatory approach to relations with the mainland, as Beijing's first choice. The third principal candidate is Lien Chan, the Kuomintang's chosen standard bearer.

---

China Threat Looms in Taiwan

MARCH 16, 01:16 EST
By MARCOS CALO MEDINA
Associated Press Writer
http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=ASIA&STORYID=APIS7387OD80

KINMEN, Taiwan (AP) - Between the windswept coastlines of this Taiwanese island and mainland China is a narrow strait of choppy waters, guarded day and night on both sides by soldiers and heavy artillery.

But despite the Chinese guns pointing at Kinmen, also known as Quemoy, this military outpost two miles from China seems unworried about Beijing's latest threats of war.

``We don't feel the pressure or tension from China anymore. We just go about our business quietly,'' says fisherman Ou Yang Yan-chun, standing beside his fleet of two fishing boats in Kinmen's harbor.

``I rarely hear the sound of guns these days,'' says Ou Yang, recalling the 1950s when Kinmen was an almost daily target of a Chinese artillery bombardment.

Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist Party held on to Kinmen after it lost mainland China to Mao Zedong's Communists in 1949. Beijing still views Taiwan to be a renegade province that must be taken back by force if necessary.

Last month, Beijing issued a new threat, warning that it would attack if Taiwan rebuffed indefinitely talks about reunifying. Military experts often name Kinmen as a target that China might try to take hostage to get the rest of Taiwan to agree to its demands.

China's recent harsh words came at a sensitive time, with Taiwan preparing to hold its second direct presidential election on March 18. During the first presidential vote in 1996, China tested nuclear-capable missiles near Taiwan's two largest ports.

Campaign buntings and flags provide the few bursts of color against the backdrop of crumbling courtyard homes made of brick and stone. All three of the top candidates have visited Kinmen and have promised development for the military outpost of 50,000 people.

Kinmen remains heavily fortified. The few beaches open to the public still have metal spikes jutting out of the waters, and many areas along the coast are still protected by barbed wire signs that read ``Danger Mines.''

A makeshift stage has been set up in downtown Kinmen to receive ruling party candidate Vice President Lien Chan, and taxi drivers fly pennants of independent candidate James Soong.

Many polls in Taiwan report a growing reluctance for reunification with mainland China, but for residents like Ni chen-kuo, a 47-year old cleaner at Kinmen's harbor, the future lies with the thriving southern Chinese city of Xiamen across the Taiwan Strait.

Direct air links from Taiwan to Xiamen would bring more tourists and more jobs, Ni said.

``This place is so small, there are so few ways to do business. We really hope the government can start direct links to over there,'' says Ni, pointing to the waters beyond Kinmen harbor's concrete military watchtower.

To appease the many businessmen chafing at the restrictions of the ban on direct links with China, Lien has proposed setting up a peace zone in Kinmen and another outlying island, Matsu, to allow direct shipping links with the mainland. But this all depends on China giving Taiwan ``concrete signs of goodwill,'' which Lien hasn't further defined.

Legal links with the mainland could make life easier for Mu Chi-lin, 37, but she thinks the elections ``won't bring any new changes.'' Business is on the minds of local residents, and one candidate ``is just the same as the other,'' she said.

``Life is hard here. China is the topic of every election, but as long as the streets are quiet, we really don't care,'' said Mu, standing beside pears and grapes smuggled from mainland China.

----

China Cites U.S. Double Standard

March 16, 2000
By The Associated Press
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-US-China.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The United States is hypocritical to preach arms control while pursuing a missile defense program that will spread dangerous technology and promote missile development in other countries, a Chinese diplomat said Thursday.

The accusation leveled by He Yefei, minister-counsel at the Chinese Embassy, was dismissed by the State Department spokesman James P. Rubin as ironic and wrong.

Rubin said China had spread dangerous technology around the world and that the antimissile defense under consideration within the Clinton administration involves technology that would not be used for offensive weapons.

Meanwhile, Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering summoned the Chinese ambassador Li Zhao Xing and urged Beijing to exercise ``patience and prudence before, during and after'' elections in Taiwan.

Pickering took the action after Prime Minister Zhu Rongji warned the Taiwanese not to vote for a pro-independence presidential candidate, saying China would invade before allowing Taiwan to declare itself a separate country.

A Republican House leader said Taiwan faced an uncertain future because the Clinton administration had embraced ``a level of appeasement'' toward China more craven than Neville Chamberlain's attempts to placate Germany on the eve of World War II.

Rep. Tom DeLay of Texas said the administration has responded with ``thinly veiled disdain'' toward Taiwan despite seemingly daily threats directed toward the island from the Communist Party headquarters in Beijing.

DeLay, who is House Republican whip, commented in remarks prepared for delivery to a gathering at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a private research group.

``Sixty-two years after Czechoslovakia, ethnic reunion has returned as an excuse for aggression,'' said DeLay, suggesting that China's desire to reinstate Taiwan under Beijing's tutelage is comparable to Hitler's designs on ethnic German sections of Czechoslovakia in 1938.

``Having learned nothing from the folly of Munich, the Clinton administration has embraced a level of appeasement that would have embarrassed Neville Chamberlain: A communist dictatorship becomes our 'strategic partner'; a small, peaceful democratic country becomes an irritant.''

Rubin, in response, said the U.S. policy on China had received support from successive administrations over the years, both Republican and Democratic.

Both parties felt it was good to work for China while maintaining support for Taiwan, he said.

Chinese diplomat He Yefei derided the U.S. antimissile policy at a conference sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a private research group.

The Clinton administration said it had to consider basing weapons in space because of a potential attack by North Korea and other so-called ``rogue'' states. But He said they had only a few missiles at best and doubted they could reach the United States.

The diplomat also said the Clinton administration was undercutting a treaty with Russia that prohibits missile defenses. That treaty, He said, serves to restrain even countries that did not sign the 1972 accord.

------

On the Net:
Chinese Embassy in Washington:
http://www.china-embassy.org

State Department Background Notes on China:
http://www.state.gov/www/background--notes/china--899--bgn.html

-----------colombia

Colombian Military States Its Case Rights Advances Cited in Report

Washington Post
Thursday, March 16, 2000; Page A22
By Karen DeYoung Washington Post Staff Writer
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/2000-03/16/224l-031600-idx.html

BOGOTA, Colombia, March 15-Assailed for human rights violations by the State Department, independent rights groups and the United Nations, the Colombian military put out its own report today, declaring impressive improvements in human rights observance and evenhandedness in pursuing armed groups on the left and right.

The report's statistics, to be delivered in Washington by Defense Minister Luis Fernando Ramirez on Monday, were the first comprehensive tally released by the Colombian Defense Ministry. They offered a stark contrast to charges that the military has colluded with right-wing paramilitary groups that others hold responsible for the majority of human rights violations.

According to the military report, leftist guerrillas are responsible for nearly 85 percent of all violations of human rights and international humanitarian law in Colombia in the past five years, with the paramilitary groups responsible for 13.3 percent. These findings run counter to the assessments of other groups inside and outside Colombia.

Ramirez told a news conference that "we are not trying to get into a controversy with other publications" or deny Colombia's problems. The military's objective, he said, "is to present all the statistics we have because sometimes not everyone has access to . . . everything that happens in Colombia."

As the Clinton administration's $1.6 billion anti-narcotics assistance package for Colombia has rushed its way through Congress, many members have harshly criticized the Colombian military, which is to receive most of the money. Today's report is an apparent effort by the military to counter such criticism, but it was immediately assailed by human rights groups.

"It's a step backward," said Jose Manuel Vivanco of Human Rights Watch, whose New York-based organization last month blamed the majority of human rights violations on the paramilitary groups and charged that half of Colombia's 18 army brigade headquarters were involved in their activities in varying degrees.

A spokesman for the U.N. human rights office here, which is about to release a new report criticizing President Andres Pastrana's government for not doing enough on human rights, noted that its figures had come from other government entities that seemed to disagree with the military's accounting.

By anyone's calculation, Colombia is one of the most dangerous places in the world, with assassinations, massacres, kidnappings for ransom and abductions, direct assaults on population centers and terrorist attacks on infrastructure targets. The military said that "at least 14,102 serious infractions of international humanitarian law" occurred here in the last five years.

Part of the difference between the military tally and others is due to the fact that while most outside groups assess blame based on numbers of deaths and what they consider more serious violations, the military report treats all violations equally.

While holding guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and the National Liberation Army culpable for the vast majority of kidnappings and extortion, terrorist and municipal attacks, it said the paramilitary groups were responsible for exponential growth in the number of assassinations, and for 74 percent of what it counted as 551 deaths during massacres of four or more people at a time in 1999.

According to the office of the independent human rights ombudsman appointed by the Colombian government, nearly 1,500 deaths occurred in more than 300 massacres last year. Due to release its own figures in a report Friday, the ombudsman's office attributes 165 massacres to the paramilitaries, 65 to the guerrillas, six to the armed forces and 71 to undetermined offenders.

While recognizing that "there is still much room for improvement in cleansing the state institutions in their capacity to guarantee the rights of citizens," the military report said that public complaints against the armed forces and police had decreased from more than 15 percent of all complaints in 1995 to 2 percent last year, a figure human rights groups do not dispute.

Special correspondent Steven Dudley contributed to this report.

----------- germany

Beating Swords Into Suburbs in East Germany's Bunker Capital

March 16, 2000
By JAN OTAKAR FISCHER
http://www.nytimes.com/library/home/031600swords-germany.html

WALDSTADT, Germany -- The train to Dresden makes a stop at Wünsdorf, a dot on the map 25 miles south of Berlin, now once again the German capital. When Werner Reisinger comes home from work each evening, he can see blocky Cyrillic letters on the derelict station. They read: "Wünsdorf-Moscow." Mr. Reisinger is again reminded that he lives on hard-won ground.

For most of a century, Wünsdorf led a secret double life: a sleepy Prussian village twinned with a forbidden city of soldiers. Now it is a city of civilians -- the site of the biggest settlement project in Germany, whose success may inspire similar projects throughout Eastern Europe.

Kaiser Wilhelm II cleared the land adjoining Wünsdorf for a firing range and infantry school. By 1914, the site was the biggest military base in Europe. In the chaotic years after World War I, the barracks were occupied by the right-wing Freikorps troops. After the Nazis took power in 1933, Hitler built a network of concrete bunkers, code-named Maybach and Zeppelin, where the invasion of Poland was coordinated in 1939.

The bunkers were the German Army's World War II nerve center, but to the end, the Allies did not know of their existence. In March 1945, American planes destroyed barracks but did not hit the bunker complex. A month later, as the Soviets drew nearer, the bunkers were evacuated in hours. Cups of coffee were left warm on the desks.

The 60,000-acre military sector was transformed into the inner sanctum of the Soviet forces in East Germany. The Zeppelin bunker became their secret communications center, from which they were prepared to direct a nuclear war against the West. Berlin was the front line of the cold war, and Wünsdorf was its field office, with perhaps 30,000 to 70,000 Russians soldiers and their families living in the military enclave. By September 1994, they were all gone.

The Brandenburg government established the Waldstadt Development Agency, under the direction of a young Berlin official, Jürgen Baumann, charged with nothing less than building a new city in a ghost town, where no one had ever lived without a uniform.

To the west of the train tracks, in the old town of Wünsdorf, little seems to have changed since the Berlin Wall came down. Almost 3,000 people live in traditional detached houses. The signs of prosperity are few: an occasional satellite dish, a rare new car.

East of the tracks, however, things are moving fast. The military zone has been integrated with the old municipality and rechristened Waldstadt, or town in the woods. Long three- and four-story dormitorylike buildings stand in formation. Most of them sport pastel-tone plaster facades and shiny red ceramic roof tiles. Interspersed are brand-new-looking prefabricated concrete apartment buildings, ringed by shady lawns.

From zero in 1996, the population of Waldstadt has grown to 2,500, and projections allow for 10,000 by 2005. If the growth rate is sustained, it will be one of Europe's highest.

Still, this is not a typical planned community. A tank tread sits on a restaurant terrace.

A flaking statue of an unknown jet pilot and a corroded figure of Lenin emerge from the trees, and so do huge rocket-shape concrete towers, their noses well above the neighboring buildings.

"Building a new community is an exciting and rare opportunity, and this site is more interesting than most," said Wolfgang Metz, an urban planner and a guiding force behind the efforts of the town to reinvent itself.

The inheritor of the Wünsdorf garrison, the Brandenburg state government, called on Mr. Metz to help coordinate the Russian evacuation of Wünsdorf. A deal was struck: Germany paid Russian troops a salary to decommission, and in return the material infrastructure was left mostly intact. The arrangement hastened the withdrawal, but left the Germans with more than they bargained for: 45,000 cubic yards of trash, 250 tons of toxic chemicals, 30 tons of spent munitions, 2,800 bombs and 98,000 rounds of ammunition. The cleanup took two years.

In 1996, the Waldstadt Development Agency hired Mr. Baumann. What did he have to work with? More than 1,000 buildings of every description -- barracks, administration buildings, factories, sports facilities, warehouses, villas, stables -- 700 of which were deemed fit for reuse. A territory of considerable charm, including dense forests and a wide lakefront, which had not been environmentally wasted. A fortunate site on a rail line and highway linked to Berlin. And history.

"Here, we are turning a place of war into a place of peace," Mr. Baumann likes to say.

The 1916 officers' headquarters building, imperial stables and bunkers became protected monuments. Investors bolstered the infrastructure with gas stations, banks and bakeries. The state government moved 1,000 government officials into offices in the old barracks, a crucial step in creating the core of an employment base in the town. The first grammar school was built before there were enough pupils to fill it. People had to be given reasons to come, to live, to work and to stay.

Petra Dittmer, 29, is a resettled employee of the state ministry, and on weekends she takes people down into the Zeppelin bunker. She grew up in the shadow of the Soviet base. "We had no idea about the bunkers or other things, but we sometimes saw the soldiers in town," Ms. Dittmer said. "Our shoemaker got a lot of business." The promise of a low-cost, sanitized apartment, and of a government job to which she did not have to commute, persuaded her to join Mr. Baumann's roster.

Most of the new residents of Waldstadt are like those who fill suburbs everywhere in Germany: young, middle-class couples with children who want affordable, modern amenities in the embrace of nature. Eighty percent are eastern Germans who may be seeking to escape their still crumbling hometowns.

Rental apartments in converted barracks range from studios to five rooms, from $250 for 390 square feet to $660 for 1,240 square feet.

"Converting barracks in this case was not the problem you might expect, since at Wünsdorf they had always been used by officers and their families," Mr. Baumann said.

The old barracks were laid out with three-room apartments. These buildings were gutted and then refitted with apartments of varying sizes, along with new bathrooms, linoleum floors, parking spaces, balconies and cable television.

The result is housing that to a large extent conceals its martial origins. Bright honey-color plaster walls and hanging plants, playgrounds, birches and private garages serve to disguise what are still unmistakably large and regimented structures. But they end up looking solid and conservative.

This is part of their appeal, if you can ignore history, because across from your bedroom window may be a 70-foot concrete air raid bunker or a hero of the Soviet Air Force.

Choosing Waldstadt was perhaps more of a challenge for two of its most recent arrivals, Werner and Hannelore Reisinger. Like thousands of their colleagues, they spent last summer moving all their belongings from Bonn, where Mr. Reisinger worked as chief librarian of the Labor Ministry.

"We did not want to live in the big city," Mr. Reisinger said.

They bought the first available lot for a three-bedroom detached house and then ordered wood-frame components from a builder. They paid about $175,000 for more than 1,160 square feet of living space. Nearly 700 one- or two-family houses are planned.

"In Berlin or even Bonn, we could only afford to rent in a two-family house, but here we could build our own," Mrs. Reisinger said. "And nature is at our doorstep. At night, we can hear the wild boar snorting around below our window."

The Reisingers have not yet been to see the bunkers, though they are visible less than 100 yards away. Mrs. Reisinger's father was killed fighting in Yugoslavia in 1943 -- she cannot bring herself to enter the chambers where his last orders were dispatched.

Not far below the surface lies another concern, common to most settlers from western Germany: fitting in to the east. There is still a suspicion among westerners that only the youngest people in the former East Germany show the motivation to make something of themselves (like turning a military base into a soldierless town); and that an urge to buy now dominates the "Ossie" (eastern) mentality, something the west got over decades ago.

From the other side, western Germans, or Wessies, are still thought of by many in eastern Germany as patronizing opportunists whose promises are no longer credible.

"We were a bit worried at first about being the new rich Wessies on the block, with an instant house and stay-at-home wife and all that," Mrs. Reisinger said. "But we have had no problems."

Mr. Metz has been busy luring transient visitors. One weekend, four years ago, he was traveling in Britain and stopped at Hay-on-Wye, the village near the Welsh border that has become a pilgrimage site for rare book collectors. There are 20 such towns worldwide, including Nevada City, Calif., and Mr. Metz immediately set about adding Waldstadt to the list. The former army bathhouse and post office were renovated to showcase the wares of a dozen German antiquarians.

The monolithic concrete and moldering relics of failed regimes exert a fascination for war tourists, several hundred strong each week. Hourly weekend tours take people into the chilly 107,000-square-foot recesses of the Zeppelin bunker, whose reinforced walls the Russians discovered were too thick to detonate.

Mr. Metz, the first civilian to become a resident of Waldstadt, is busy plotting the future from his office in the Book Town building (now the unofficial town hall). In 1998, he gave up his civil service job to form his own Book Town tourism company. The state of Brandenburg has pumped in $130 million worth of investment, while private investment stands around $160 million. Apartment rental prices are averaging 65 cents a square foot compared with $1 a square foot elsewhere in the region, so the space is rapidly filling.

And Mr. Baumann is finding new distractions: a steady stream of government officials from countries like the Czech Republic and Ukraine have been arriving, seeking conversion advice for their own tattered and abandoned infrastructure.

The Book Town is opening a fourth building this summer. Already 35,0000 tourists have had their dose of "books, beer and bunkers." One way Mr. Baumann wishes to foster community is to build up the cultural base. An artists' colony has been proposed for the old troop exercise yards, and the row of empty imperial stables is to become a military museum extension, art galleries, a printing plant and space for publishers. A couple of miles away, the officers' headquarters complex is waiting for the right investor to revivify the grand old Prussian spaces.

"Some kind of institution would be right, or a high-tech company campus," Mr. Metz said. Then he paused with a smile, "You don't happen to know Bill Gates, do you, or maybe Steven Spielberg?"

----------- india

Clinton to focus on deployable systems

The Hindu
03/16/00
By Sridhar Krishnaswami
http://www.indiaserver.com/thehindu/2000/03/16/stories/01160006.htm

WASHINGTON, MARCH 15. Even as the Clinton administration is concerned about the nuclear programme of India and Pakistan, neither of the countries has developed an operational deployed missile; and Washington would continue to press the two nations to refrain from going this route, says the White House.

Asked whether, in the context of Washington's failure to persuade both the countries against developing nuclear weapons, the American focus must now be on creating safer mechanisms for the deployment, the White House spokesman, Mr. Joe Lockhart, said, ``... we have talked at some time about our concern about the nuclear programme in both India and Pakistan, but neither side has developed an operational deployed missile. And that's what we're going to work with both sides to make the case they refrain from from doing that. We want them... to get... to non- proliferation standards. And that's one of the reasons why we are going to go and make this trip.''

Pressed for specifics how the U.S. would persuade them not to move to deployable systems for their nuclear weapons, he said the President, Mr. Bill Clinton, would make the case directly with the leaders of the two countries.

``... we have been working with the Indian and Pakistani Governments for some time now on our concern about their nuclear programme. We would make the case both in terms of non- proliferation and be making the case on the CTBT while we are there. The President would meet both the leaders.

In an interview to The Washington Post, the Deputy Secretary of State, Mr. Strobe Talbott, said there was no question of any Government in India reversing or abandoning the nuclear option. ``In the real world, neither this Indian Government, nor any imaginable Indian Government is going to reverse that decision.''

Talks on the various nuclear and security issues were ``worthwhile, but we haven't had what I would argue is breakthrough progress on any of these,'' Mr. Talbott said. On safeguarding the Indian and Pakistani nuclear arsenal to prevent an accidental war, a senior Administration official has told The Post, ``We want to be very careful not to give them a user's manual''.

An unnamed senior administration official has been quoted in The Washington Times as saying that the Secretary of State's remarks on Pakistan during a speech at the Asia Society on Tuesday did not amount to a ``tilt'' towards India. Ms Madeleine Albright, Secretary of State, bluntly asked Pakistan to respect the Line of Control and halt terrorism.

``But today the conflict over Kashmir has been fundamentally transformed. For, nations must not attempt to change borders or zones of occupation through armed force. And now that they have exploded nuclear devices, India and Pakistan have all the more reason to avoid armed conflict... And we can be sure of one more practical reality. Tangible steps must be taken to respect the Line of Control,'' Ms. Albright said.

Denying any ``tilt'', the senior official has said, ``Pakistan wants to change the border-not India. There have been indications of increased Indian activity along the Line of Control, so this is a warning to both sides. But it is Pakistan rather than India that is seeking adjustments''.

Denies report on funding

Meanwhile the White House has denies a media report that the President decided to include Pakistan in his South Asia itinerary because the First Lady, Ms. Hillary Rodham Clinton, running for a Senate seat from New York, received $ 50,000 from a Pakistani- American political group during a fund-raising event last month.

``The decision was made by the President in consultation with his foreign policy team based on our interest in the subcontinent, our interest in that part of the world without regard to anyone's politics, including the First Lady's'', Mr. Lockhart said.

---

U.S. anti-nuclear agenda sure to fail in South Asia

Denver Rocky Mountain News
03/16/00
Holger Jensen mailto:hjens@aol.com
http://insidedenver.com/jensen/0316jense.shtml

Holger Jensen's Biography
http://insidedenver.com/news/columnists.shtml#jensen

President Clinton goes to South Asia next week hoping to persuade India and Pakistan to give up their nuclear ambitions, stop fighting over Kashmir and convince Pakistan's military ruler to restore democracy.

But he is likely to fail on all three counts.

On the nuclear question, Clinton's hand is considerably weakened by the Senate's refusal to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. In the words of one Indian official, "They killed the treaty. It's rather indecent to ask us to sign a dead treaty."

Kashmir has heated up considerably since last year's incursion by Pakistani-backed rebels across the "Line of Control" in the Kargil region. The general who directed that operation, Pervez Musharraf, has since overthrown Pakistan's elected government and shows no inclination to restore civilian rule.

Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee won't revive peace talks with Pakistan as long as it has a military regime. His coalition government, dominated by Hindu nationalists, is under intense pressure from the Indian army to avenge its humiliating inability to defend India's border.

As CIA Director George Tenet pointed out in a recent report to Congress, "Last spring the two countries narrowly averted a full-scale war in Kashmir, which could have escalated to the nuclear level. Recent changes in government in both countries add tensions to the picture."

Sanctions imposed on India and Pakistan after their tit-for-tat nuclear tests in 1998 failed to slow South Asia's arms race. In 1999 India test-fired a new medium-range ballistic missile, the Agni-2, and Pakistan tested both its medium-range Ghauri and the short-range Shaheen-2.

The Islamabad-based Mahbub ul Haq Human Development Center says India and Pakistan have increased their defense outlays by 14 percent and 8.5 percent respectively. It estimates they will spend $15 billion over the next 10 years to maintain their nuclear arsenals -- enough to feed and educate more than 37 million neglected children on the subcontinent.

The Institute for Science and International Security believes India has enough nuclear material to build up to 90 nuclear weapons and Pakistan about half that number. The Federation of American Scientists has published satellite pictures on its web site of Pakistan's nuclear bases and plans to do the same with India's.

The photos, obtained from Space Imaging Inc. of Thornton, Colo., show that "Pakistan has invested a tremendous effort in these facilities, and I don't think we're going to talk them out of building these weapons anytime soon," said John Pike, director of the federation's nuclear alerts.

India has already announced its intention to maintain a nuclear deterrent. An independent Task Force on U.S. Policy Towards South Asia, co-sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institution, warned Clinton that "any attempt to persuade India to eliminate its nuclear arsenal will fail, given Indian concerns about both China and Pakistan and the inclination of many Indians to associate nuclear weapons with great-power status."

An open letter to the president said: "It is essential to resist the temptation to place ambitious, nuclear weapons-related goals at the center of U.S. aims." It was signed by, among others, Robert Oaklay, a former ambassador to Pakistan, and Frank Wisner, a former ambassador to India.

Ignoring this advice, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has made it clear that U.S.-Indian friendship hinges on the nuclear issue. "We must accept that significant progress in this area is necessary before India and the United States can realize fully the vast potential of our relationship," she said in a speech to the Asia Society.

Her message to Pakistan was equally curt. Musharraf must call elections, giving the Pakistani people "the ability to choose their leaders sooner, rather than later."

Albright stressed that Clinton's visit to Pakistan in no way constitutes approval of the October coup. Rather, it was prompted by a desire to reduce tensions between two nuclear-capable foes.

Fighting between India and Pakistan always intensifies after the Himalayan snows melt in spring, when Muslim insurgents can again use mountain trails to infiltrate Kashmir. India claims the number of insurgents has doubled since the Kargil clash. And although both countries have promised not to "go nuclear," there is always a risk of miscalculation as their armies stand on hair-trigger alert.

Holger Jensen is international editor. E-mail: hjens@aol.com. His column also appears on the Internet at www.rockymountainnews.com/jensen/

March 16, 2000

---

Indian Army Warns of Rising Tension

Associated Press
March 16, 2000 Filed at 4:34 p.m. EST
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-India-Pakistan.html

NEW DELHI, India (AP) -- Pakistani army officers have taken over the training of militants waging a secessionist battle in Kashmir and are helping them cross a cease-fire line that divides the Himalayan territory, senior Indian officers said Thursday.

An estimated 3,500 militants from Pakistan are now inside Indian-held Kashmir and an additional 5,000 are trained and ready to join them, said the officers, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

They said they anticipate an increase in fighting this summer and agreed with President Clinton's assessment that the India-Pakistan frontier was ``the most dangerous place in the world right now.''

The army said the briefing, given to foreign media just four days before Clinton's scheduled arrival in India, was intended to pressure Pakistan to withdraw its assistance to the militants.

In Islamabad, Pakistani army spokesman Maj. Gen. Rashid Quereshi accused India of stepping up the rhetoric in advance of the Clinton visit.

``There couldn't be bigger lies,'' he said of the Indian officers' claim. ``The Indians have been constantly trying to pin all the blame for whatever wrong is happening in India or in Kashmir on Pakistan.''

India and both claim all of Kashmir, an Islamic area that has sparked two wars between the two countries since British colonialism ended a half-century ago. Now both sides have nuclear weapons capability and tensions in Kashmir are on the rise.

India claims Pakistan trains and funds militants. Pakistan maintains its aid is limited to moral and diplomatic support.

The Indian officers said that in December 1998, the training of the militants was transferred from the Pakistani intelligence wing to regular army officers.

Clinton has offered to mediate over Kashmir, but only if both sides request his involvement. India has rejected any outside involvement.

China also claims part of eastern Kashmir. Chinese Ambassador Zhou Gang expressed hope Thursday that Clinton's visit would soothe tensions in South Asia.

-----

Kashmir Hopes Clinton Brings Peace

MARCH 16, 13:32 EST
By LAURINDA KEYS
Associated Press Writer
http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=ASIA&STORYID=APIS738IHAO0

SRINAGAR, India (AP) - Rolling out thin, spicy, biscuit dough onto a charcoal-heated hot plate, baker Nazir Ahmad Runga was worried. As he sat in his wooden shack on a Kashmir street of shuttered shops, he wondered: Where will the next shooting or explosion be?

``We never know from which side blood will flow,'' said Runga.

But, he said, he believes everything should be all right after President Clinton comes to India for a visit beginning March 20 and follows it with a brief stop in Pakistan.

``He will decide our fate so we will leave this hell,'' said the 40-year-old baker in his soiled tunic. ``He is the only one who can.''

It seems a bleak hope.

Clinton has said the 1972 cease-fire line that bisects the mountainous Kashmir region between India and Pakistan is ``the most dangerous place in the world right now.'' He has offered to mediate, but only if both countries ask - which India has said it won't do.

The dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, which both sides claim, has been the spark for two of the three wars between the two countries since British colonialism ended a half-century ago. Now both sides have nuclear weapons capability, and tensions in Kashmir are high again.

The root of the latest dispute is a Muslim fundamentalist-led uprising that began in Indian Kashmir in 1989, prompting the Indian army to deploy there. More than 25,000 people have died in the fighting.

India says Kashmir is a bilateral problem that could be resolved if Pakistan stopped supporting guerrillas who cross the border to set bombs and kill security forces.

Pakistan says it gives moral and political support, but no money, weapons or training, to the Kashmiri militants who shelter within its borders. Pakistani leaders want the international community to get involved and implement a 1948 U.N. resolution calling for an eventual plebiscite in Kashmir.

The sides fought battled on the snowy peaks of the Himalayas last summer. India says it was battling the Pakistani army. But Pakistan says it was local guerrillas holed up in stone bunkers who fought off India's jets, artillery and infantry for nearly three months.

The years of fighting have taken their toll on both combatants and civilians.

Indian forces here are fighting guerrillas who can hide an automatic rifle under the traditional long woolen cloak that most Kashmiri men wear. They can place a land mine in a vegetable market or slip up to an off-duty soldier in a crowded lane and kill him at point-blank range.

Frustrated and frightened troops and police are sandbagged in bunkers every few hundred yards along the highways and city streets. Kashmiris complain that they retaliate against civilians by burning shops and houses and raping, beating and humiliating entire villages in all-day roundups and identity checks.

``We want independence,'' says Azi Begum Fatima, beating her breast in a courtyard of a mosque in Srinagar, Kashmir's summer capital. ``We are living in a miserable way under the ruthless Indian occupation.''

Maj. Gen. John Mukherjee, the regional Indian army commander, acknowledged some human rights abuses but said many complaints were unproved.

``No people anywhere would like to see this sort of activity taking place,'' he said, commenting on the house searches and identity checks. ``Which army wants to do this sort of job?''

Tension and violence are increasing as Clinton's visit approaches. Mukherjee said 42 militants were killed between Oct. 22 and Feb. 15. At least 15 civilians were killed by either guerrillas or security forces in February.

Eleven years of bloodshed have changed the Kashmiri character, says local writer Ali Imran.

``We have a saying that even the skies weep when an innocent is killed,'' he said. ``Now, there can be a blast and I hear it, but I drive on down the other road without caring. It has changed me, our society.''

Although there is no formal curfew, Kashmiris try to get home before sunset. If they can't, they drive with the lights on inside their cars so they can be seen by increasingly trigger-happy soldiers or police.

All Kashmiris ``want is peace and stability,'' says Gen. Mukherjee. ``There is never more than 5-10 percent of the people who really support terrorists and insurgents.''

Police and army leaders believe guerrilla groups are planning a spectacular event to draw attention to Kashmir while Clinton is in India. Members of the largest legal separatist group say they plan protests, although most of their top leaders are in preventive custody.

For Runga the baker, Clinton is the best hope to make India and Pakistan resolve their dispute. He speaks of the power of the U.S. leader in messianic terms - as do many Kashmiris, illiterate or educated, in anticipation of the first American presidential visit to India in 28 years.

``Clinton should tell India to withdraw from Kashmir,'' says Mohammad Jusuf Qurashi, giving a Koran lesson in the mosque courtyard in Srinagar.

``He is a superpower in the world,'' said Qurashi. ``He can do anything.''

During Clinton's visit, Imran said, ``The people will be looking with wide open eyes toward New Delhi to see if the gentleman on whom they have pinned so many hopes is talking about them or not.''

----

Clinton To Press India, Pakistan

MARCH 16, 17:40 EST
By TERENCE HUNT
AP White House Correspondent
http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=ASIA&STORYID=APIS738M5G80

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Clinton said Thursday he will press India and Pakistan next week to curb their nuclear weapons programs. But the White House said he would not try to mediate their bitter dispute over the Himalayan territory of Kashmir.

With India opposed to outside help, Clinton simply will urge the two sides to exercise restraint over Kashmir and resume dialogue, National Security Adviser Sandy Berger.

Clinton said he will not accept India's and Pakistan's current situation over nuclear weapons, as others want him to do. ``I will make clear our view that a nuclear future is a dangerous future for them and for the world.''

The president leaves Saturday for a week-long stay in South Asia, a troubled region often ignored by the United States and home to 40 percent of the world's poor. He will visit Bangladesh, spend five days in India and conclude his trip with a brief stop in Pakistan.

In Pakistan, Clinton will urge that deposed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif be spared execution if he is convicted on charges of hijacking, terrorism, kidnapping and attempted murder, Berger said. He also said Clinton will be given an opportunity for a live television address to press for a return to democracy after last year's military coup and raise concerns about terrorism and tensions over Kashmir.

It will be the first presidential visit to India in 22 years, the first to Pakistan since 1969 and the first ever to Bangladesh.

India and Pakistan, the world's two newest nuclear powers, have fought two wars over Kashmir and clashed again last summer with more than 1,000 casualties.

The bitterness escalated after a military coup in Pakistan last October by Gen. Pervez Musharraf and the hijacking of an Indian Airlines jet last December by Kashmiri militants.

Clinton, in a videotaped address to a Carnegie conference on nonproliferation, said India and Pakistan have legitimate security concerns but that a nuclear competition endangers the world.

``And I'll stress that narrowing our differences on nonproliferation is important to moving toward a broader relationship,'' Clinton said.

Both India and Pakistan have pledged to no further nuclear tests, Berger said, but neither country has endorsed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty signed by more than 150 countries - but rejected by the U.S. Senate last year.

Berger said Clinton would encourage them to sign the treaty and exercise restraint in their nuclear programs. Further, he said the president would press them to stop production of fissile material, the fuel for nuclear weapons, and to join in negotiations for a fissile material cutoff treaty. And, he said, the president would urge them to impose serious export controls on nuclear material.

A major objective of the trip is to establish better relations with India, clouded by years of mutual suspicion during the Cold War.

``For 50 years, America's relationship with India has been viewed through the prism of the Cold War and its aftermath,'' Berger said. ``President Clinton has been determined to get this partnership on track for the benefit of Indians and Americans alike. We want to deepen ties between our governments, our private sectors, our scientists, our citizens.''

India shares that objective, said Naresh Chandra, the Indian ambassador to the United States.

Chandra, in a briefing on Clinton's visit, said it will ``emancipate our mind, help us to get out of the Cold War attitudes and see things afresh and anew. Not that you can wipe the slate clean.''

----

Indian Army Warns of Rising Tension

MARCH 16, 16:34 EST
By ARTHUR MAX
Associated Press Writer
http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=ASIA&STORYID=APIS738L6K00

NEW DELHI, India (AP) - Pakistani army officers have taken over the training of militants waging a secessionist battle in Kashmir and are helping them cross a cease-fire line that divides the Himalayan territory, senior Indian officers said Thursday.

An estimated 3,500 militants from Pakistan are now inside Indian-held Kashmir and an additional 5,000 are trained and ready to join them, said the officers, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

They said they anticipate an increase in fighting this summer and agreed with President Clinton's assessment that the India-Pakistan frontier was ``the most dangerous place in the world right now.''

The army said the briefing, given to foreign media just four days before Clinton's scheduled arrival in India, was intended to pressure Pakistan to withdraw its assistance to the militants.

In Islamabad, Pakistani army spokesman Maj. Gen. Rashid Quereshi accused India of stepping up the rhetoric in advance of the Clinton visit.

``There couldn't be bigger lies,'' he said of the Indian officers' claim. ``The Indians have been constantly trying to pin all the blame for whatever wrong is happening in India or in Kashmir on Pakistan.''

India and both claim all of Kashmir, an Islamic area that has sparked two wars between the two countries since British colonialism ended a half-century ago. Now both sides have nuclear weapons capability and tensions in Kashmir are on the rise.

India claims Pakistan trains and funds militants. Pakistan maintains its aid is limited to moral and diplomatic support.

The Indian officers said that in December 1998, the training of the militants was transferred from the Pakistani intelligence wing to regular army officers.

Clinton has offered to mediate over Kashmir, but only if both sides request his involvement. India has rejected any outside involvement.

China also claims part of eastern Kashmir. Chinese Ambassador Zhou Gang expressed hope Thursday that Clinton's visit would soothe tensions in South Asia.

-------

Albright addresses Clinton's India trip

USA Today
3/16/2000
Washington DC
http://usatoday.com/news/washdc/nc1.htm

WASHINGTON - Secretary of State Madeleine Albright Thursday discussed President Clinton's trip to the Indian subcontinent next week, addressing the difficulty he may have persuading either India or Pakistan to cut back on nuclear weapons programs. Clinton arrives in India - the world's most populous democracy - on Sunday for a week-long South Asia trip that will also include shorter visits to military-ruled Pakistan and Bangladesh. Earlier this week, Albright said ''significant progress'' was needed by India in curbing weapons and exports of military technology ''before India and the United States can realize fully the vast potential of our relationship.'' The Clinton administration puts pressing for a scaling-back of nuclear programs high on the trip's agenda.

-----------japan

U.S., Japan Reach Pact on Incinerator Tokyo Will Pay to Stop Pollution at Nearby American Naval Base

Washington Post
Thursday, March 16, 2000; Page A18
By Thomas E. Ricks Washington Post Staff Writer
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/2000-03/16/272l-031600-idx.html

TOKYO, March 16 (Thursday)-The U.S. and Japanese governments agreed today to settle a burning dispute over a commercial incinerator that has been spewing smoke and toxic fumes over a U.S. Navy base in Japan, a senior U.S. defense official said.

The accord calls for the Japanese government to pay "hundreds of millions of dollars" to end the pollution, which infests the Atsugi Naval Air Facility 25 miles west of Tokyo and has prompted complaints from U.S. personnel and their families, said the official who is accompanying Defense Secretary William S. Cohen on a visit to Vietnam, Japan and Korea.

Among other things, Japan has agreed to pay for the construction, beginning immediately, of a 330-foot-tall smokestack at the Shinkampo incinerator, the official said. The Navy said its studies show the current incinerator's discharges contain the highest levels of the carcinogen dioxin ever found in the air in Japan.

The Japanese government will also provide free housing to Navy personnel affected by the incinerator, and round-the-clock monitoring of the emissions, the official said.

He said there is an unwritten understanding that if these steps do not resolve the situation, Japan will consider ways of shutting down the incinerator altogether. The incinerator is privately owned, and U.S. officials say its owner has ties to the Japanese underworld.

The U.S. government plans to seek an injunction, likely within the next few months, to force the incinerator to cease operations. The Japanese government has agreed to provide technical support for the lawsuit, the U.S. official said.

The pollution dispute has simmered for 10 years, during which the base's Japanese neighbors have also complained of noise from jets taking off and landing. U.S. officials say the key to the agreement will be how quickly it is implemented.

"I am totally committed to resolving the issue of that facility," Cohen said after viewing the incinerator earlier in the day. "It either has to be cleaned up or shut down."

Cohen also discussed with Japanese officials whether Japan will continue the $5 billion it pays annually to support the U.S. military presence here, the U.S. official said. The figure is negotiated in five-year increments and the current agreement expires next year. In addition, the official said, Cohen reviewed the state of negotiations involving North Korea, South Korea, Japan and the United States.

----------- korea

Official: N.Korea Engagement Working

MARCH 16, 17:32 EST
By GEORGE GEDDA
Associated Press Writer
http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=ASIA&STORYID=APIS738M2300

WASHINGTON (AP) - A top State Department official said Thursday the United States continues to take ``very slow, small steps forward'' in its quest to bring stability to the Korean Peninsula through engagement with North Korea.

Rejecting the argument of skeptics that the exercise is futile, Ambassador Wendy Sherman highlighted North Korea's agreement to freeze plutonium-producing nuclear facilities at two sites in 1994 and to renounce tests of long-range missiles.

``This is no small action,'' Sherman said. ``It's very hard to continue a program if you don't test.''

Sherman, a top State Department aide on North Korea policy, testified at a meeting of the House International Relations Committee, whose chairman, Rep. Benjamin Gilman, R-N.Y., was decidedly pessimistic about the administration's engagement policy.

He noted that a CIA analysis found that, despite the missile test moratorium, North Korea is continuing to develop the Taopo Dong II intercontinental ballistic missile and could launch it later this year if it decides to do so.

Gilman also alluded to CIA estimates that the missile would be capable of delivering a several-hundred kilogram payload anywhere in the United States. The agency concluded that Pyongyang is the world's major supplier of ballistic missiles and technology, he noted.

The committee's ranking Democrat, Sam Gejdenson, of Connecticut, said he supports administration efforts to reach out to Pyongyang but added that North Korea must realize that ``there is a limit to the patience of the U.S. Congress and the American people.''

The hearing was held a day after the United States and North Korea ended a week-long round of talks in New York, primarily on the planned visit of a high-level North Korean official to Washington in early spring.

Gilman interpreted the inability of the two sides to set a date as a ``breakdown'' but Sherman said the two sides intend to reconvene the discussions shortly after consultations with their respective capitals.

Sherman also pointed out that North Korea agreed in New York to convene talks on American concerns over North Korea's missile program and on implementation of the U.S.-North Korean 1994 nuclear agreement.

She said that agreement ``continues to be our best means of capping and eventually eliminating the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons.''

Had the North's plutonium production not been frozen, Pyongyang ``would be well on its way to having a nuclear program capable of producing dozens of nuclear weapons,'' Sherman said.

In addition, she said North Korea also has agreed to allow a second U.S. inspection of a site where U.S. analysts believed North Korea may have been producing nuclear weapons in secret. The first inspection was held a year ago and yielded no evidence of any such activity.

---

On the Net:

CIA director statement:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/public-affairs/speeches/dci-speech-020200.html


----------- pakistan

Pentagon regrets spread of nuclear weapons

The News International Pakistan
Thursday, March 16, 2000 -- Zil'Haj 09, 1420 A.H.
By Amir Mateen

After his attention was drawn to photographs of Pakistan's nuclear facilities, details of which were distributed here besides being put on the internet, the Pentagon's Admiral Quigley, whose attention was drawn to this development at his regular briefing on Tuesday afternoon, regretted the spread of nuclear weapons.

He was asked if the US should "start to engage the Indian and Pakistani government to help them develop nuclear weapons in a way that is safe, transparent and not threaten the planet with nuclear war."

In response, the Pentagon spokesman said the US had made it fairly clear in months preceding the public exposure of these photographs that "we regret the spread of nuclear weapons to any nation or additional nations on the earth."

He said it was constructive to "facilitate engagement and dialogue between nations "that do have nuclear weapons, do possess nuclear weapons, so that there is no surprises."

He said during the Cold War years, despite deep and wide philosophical differences between the Soviet Union and the United States, there was still engagement at a variety of levels, between the governments and the militaries of the two countries.

"Transparency and dialogue take away mystery and ease concern, if you have a greater understanding. So that is something that the US would very much be in favour of, not only with those two nations, but with other nations of the world, as well. Now, as far as the specific proposal that may or may not be made tomorrow, we'll just have to take that as it comes and see what happens."

"Our desire is for both countries to walk away from their nuclear programmes. Other countries have done it, such as Argentina and Brazil," he said.

He said the US was committed to doing whatever it could to stop additional nations from developing nuclear weapons and

"we are very strongly in favour of signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty."

Satellite images of Pakistan's nuclear facilities in Khushab and alleged missile facility in Sargodha were distributed besides putting on internet for everybody to see here in Washington on Wednesday.

Announcing at a Press conference at the Press Club, a spokesman of the Federation of American Scientist which runs the Public Eye project to make public the armament sites of proliferants worldwide, once again warned that Pakistan is in danger of having most of its nuclear eggs in one basket, which would be a tempting target.

The Federation has already put investigative details of Indian installations in Pokhran, Trombay and Tarapur on web, besides summary of its missile related projects in Chandipur, Hyderabad and Wheeler Island.

-----------

World More Nuclear Bombs For Pakistan

CBS News March 16, 2000
David Martin National Security Correspondent.

(CBS) The U.S State Department has evidence Pakistan is reprocessing fuel produced at a nuclear reactor to make weapons-grade plutonium, Martin reports Pakistan is escalating the nuclear arms race. Recent air samples taken secretly by U.S. intelligence near a Pakistani nuclear reactor contain traces of a gas called Krypton-85, which to scientists is a dead give away that plutonium is being reprocessed.

"That fact, that they're reprocessing is very significant," said nuclear expert David Albright. "That clearly says that the purpose of this is to make nuclear weapons."

The report comes only days before President Clinton travels to Pakistan and its regional rival, India.

Clinton said Thursday he will urge India and Pakistan to reverse their nuclear arms race, calling it "dangerous for them and the world."

U.S. intelligence estimates that Pakistan already has 30 to 50 nuclear bombs made of uranium. According to Albright, making plutonium weapons, which are smaller and more powerful, accelerates the nuclear arms race with India.

"The smaller the weapon, the easier it is to deliver both by aircraft and by missile,"Albright said.

Other analysts agree.

"A lightweight plutonium bomb could be put on top of the mobile M-11 missiles they've gotten from the Chinese," said David Pike of the Federation of American Scientists. "There'd be a lot of incentive for India to try and destroy all of those missiles while they're still on the base rather than waiting for them to disperse into the field."

The Chinese-made missile can be transported on the back of a truck.

When not in the field, the missiles are parked in garages at a Pakistani air base, making a tempting target for India.

U.S. intelligence estimates that reprocessing fuel from the reactor in question will give the Pakistanis enough plutonium to build two nuclear weapons a year.

India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in May 1998. The two countries, once part of the same British colony, have fought three wars since gaining independence in 1947. This summer, the rivals skirmished over the disputed Kashmir region.

The United States, Russia, China, Britain and France are acknowledged nuclear powers. Israel is widely considered to also have the bomb.

------

Scientists warn of nuclear temptation

Sydney Morning Herald
Date: 16/03/00
http://www.smh.com.au/news/0003/16/text/world10.html

Washington: Pakistan has "laid the groundwork" for a force of dozens of nuclear-tipped missiles that could strike India, a non-profit group of US scientists says.

The Federation of American Scientists based its statement on newly released satellite images of Pakistan's two most important special weapons facilities.

The federation was founded in 1945 by members of the Manhattan Project, which produced the first atomic bomb. Its goals are nuclear disarmament and prevention of the use of nuclear weapons.

The public policy group posted photos of North Korea's Taepodong missile test facility on its Web site in January. It sparked debate over the seriousness of the North Korean missile threat because the facilities appeared to be fairly primitive.

It now plans to put pictures of Pakistani nuclear and missile facilities on the Internet only days before President Bill Clinton visits Pakistan on a trip to Asia.

The photographs, bought from a Colorado company, Space Imaging, are of spy-satellite quality, Mr John Pike, director of the group's space policy project, said. The scientists' federation was set to unveil the images on its Web site, www.fas.org.

Mr Clinton's Asian tour, during which he will also spend a day in Bangladesh, comes amid increased tension between India and Pakistan, historic rivals over the Kashmir region. Washington is concerned about a potential nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan.

The images show that the construction of the Khushab plutonium production reactor is almost complete, the group said. Plutonium from that reactor could be used in lightweight nuclear warheads for M-11 missiles that Pakistan bought from China in the early 1990s.

The missiles are housed at the Sargodha medium-range missile base, where Pakistan has built a dozen garages for mobile missile launchers and other vehicles, the statement said. The photo does not include missiles, but shows that the installation is "a full-scale missile base".

"Pakistan has laid the groundwork for a force of dozens of nuclear-tipped missiles capable of striking Indian cities and military bases," Mr Pike said.

"But Pakistan is in danger of having most of its nuclear eggs in one basket, which would be a tempting target for a pre-emptive Indian attack in a time of crisis.

"The United States needs to work with India and Pakistan to reduce this temptation for launching disarming attacks. With Pakistan and India apparently moving ahead with deploying nuclear forces, the danger of such attacks will grow."

Mr Pike said that in the past US policy focused on preventing India and Pakistan from acquiring nuclear weapons. "In the future, American policy needs a new focus on initiatives to reduce the risk that these weapons will be used."

The Federation of American Scientists has ordered satellite photos of similar facilities in India.

Space Imaging launched a satellite late last year that can take pictures nearly as close to the ground as spy satellites do. It charges $US2,000 ($3,260) per photo. Previously such images were obtainable only by government employees with security clearances.

---

Pakistan makes nuclear headway Satellite images show key steps, activists say

San Jose Mercury News
Thursday, March 16, 2000,
BY JOHN DIAMOND
Chicago Tribune
http://www7.mercurycenter.com/premium/world/docs/nukes16.htm

WASHINGTON -- As President Clinton prepares for his trip to India and Pakistan, an arms-control group using commercial satellite imagery said Wednesday that Pakistan is developing the tools it will need to arm medium-range missiles with nuclear warheads.

The Federation of American Scientists commissioned the imagery from the Ikonos satellite, which approaches the level of accuracy of U.S. spy satellites. The pictures show Pakistan advancing more rapidly and extensively than previously known to develop its own plutonium-production capability near a vastly expanded mobile missile base. In one key finding, the satellite images captured the location of a heavy-water-production plant, a key element for producing plutonium-based weapons.

The information was not news to U.S. national security officials or to India. Their reaction not only confirmed the interpretation of the satellite photographs but underscored the new role of commercial satellites in opening up an area previously the exclusive province of the intelligence community.

The Ikonos satellite was launched last year by Space Imaging, a company headed by the former chief of the National Reconnaissance Office, the U.S. intelligence arm in charge of the nation's spy satellites. Ikonos can take digitized photographs and transmit them to receiving stations on Earth, producing images in which objects as small as 3 1/2 feet across can be distinguished. Although other commercial satellites with ground-imaging equipment have been in service for years, Ikonos is the first to approach the level of a spy satellite in accuracy.

India and Pakistan rocked the world two years ago with nuclear weapons tests. The two countries have fought several wars and continue to skirmish in the disputed Kashmir region. But weapons experts said at the time of the 1998 tests that neither country was particularly advanced in its ability to turn a nuclear explosive into a deliverable weapon. Both are believed to have fashioned some nuclear bombs deliverable by aircraft, but neither is yet known to be able to mount nuclear weapons atop a missile.

Although that picture remains largely unchanged, Pakistan has been pressing to improve its weapons capability at a greater pace than known publicly, according to the federation, an arms-control advocacy group.

The photos show a functioning nuclear reactor at Khushab, in east-central Pakistan, capable of producing plutonium, the synthetic heavy metal that is the key ingredient in the most sophisticated nuclear weapons. They also show a nearby facility for the production of heavy water, a key component of plutonium-producing reactors. Other images collected by the same satellite show what the federation says is a large base for mobile missile launchers.

There is no evidence yet that Pakistan has produced a warhead that it can mount on a missile.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons program to date has been based on weapons-grade uranium as the key active ingredient. Plutonium bombs can be made smaller and lighter, and are, therefore, easier to mount atop a missile, such as the Chinese-built M-11s Pakistan bought in the early 1990s.

International security and weapons proliferation experts are concerned that if missile capability emerges in India and Pakistan, the chance for a misunderstanding, or the rapid escalation of a conflict to the nuclear level, will increase alarmingly.

The arms-control community advocates greater openness in terms of the weapons facilities potential nuclear rivals have, arguing that a clearer understanding of an adversary's capabilities will reduce tension. The federation had ordered up satellite photographs of Indian nuclear facilities as well, but clouds obscured the key location

---

THE MIDDLE EAST
Pakistan Bans Public Rallies

Washington Post
Thursday, March 16, 2000; Page A20
WORLD IN BRIEF
Compiled from news services
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/2000-03/16/231l-031600-idx.html

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan--Days before President Clinton's first visit here, Pakistan's army rulers have banned all public rallies and strikes, saying they fear they will turn violent and "portray Pakistan as an irresponsible state." Clinton's visit was not mentioned in the announcement, and there was no indication of how long the ban will last.

The announcement, circulated by Pakistan's state-run news agency, said indoor political meetings can proceed, but without the use of loudspeakers. In Pakistan, political rallies traditionally include long processions and fiery speeches roared over loudspeakers.

"There are reports that elements working against the interest of the state are preparing and planning hostile acts to create chaos and portray Pakistan as an irresponsible state," the Associated Press of Pakistan said, quoting an Interior Ministry statement. "The country cannot afford the luxury of agitation and violence-prone politics, which disrupts the normal public life."

The announcement also comes a week before the Pakistan Muslim League--the political party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, whom the army toppled in October--was to hold a public rally March 23 in the eastern Punjab capital of Lahore.

---

Group Says Photos Show Pakistani Arms

March 16, 2000
By REUTERS
http://www.nytimes.com/00/03/16/news/world/pakistan-photos-rts.html

WASHINGTON, March 15 -- A public policy group said today that it had obtained satellite photographs showing that Pakistan has built a dozen garages that can be used to house mobile missiles.

The Federation of American Scientists, which bought the photos from a Colorado-based company, Space Imaging Inc., said other images showed that a nuclear reactor at Khushab, near the Sargodha base where the garages are located, is nearly complete and may be capable pf producing plutonium for nuclear warheads.

The pictures, posted on the group's Web site, www.fas.org, did not show any actual missiles or transport vehicles.

The group, which opposes the spread of nuclear weapons, released the photos as President Clinton is preparing to visit South Asia with stops in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

----------- russia

Russia Criticizes U.S. Law Linking Funding to Iran Policy

Washington Post
Thursday, March 16, 2000; Page A18
By David Hoffman Washington Post Foreign Service
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/2000-03/16/240l-031600-idx.html

MOSCOW, March 15-Russia today criticized a bill signed by President Clinton this week that would halt contributions to Moscow to help finance the International Space Station if Russian firms are found to have helped Iran develop nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

The new law is aimed at pressuring Russia to halt proliferation, which Moscow has long insisted is not occurring. The United States has imposed sanctions on Russian firms or institutes 10 times because of suspected leaks of nuclear weapons technology to Iran.

Western experts say the proliferation is often taking place at lower levels, primarily at Russia's many hundreds of state-owned scientific and defense institutes.

The law bars "extraordinary payments" to Russia's space agency for the space station unless Washington confirms that Moscow has not transferred such technology to Iran in the previous year. The Clinton administration had proposed paying an additional $650 million for Russia's work on the space station.

Yevgeny Adamov, the Russian minister for atomic energy who has championed Russia's cooperation in building a nuclear power station in Iran, reiterated Moscow's position that it would not be in its own interests to leak the technology.

Saying that Russia realizes it would be imprudent to supply a southern neighbor with nuclear weapons, Adamov asked, "Why are we considered fools?" The Interfax news agency quoted him as saying that selling such technology to Iran would be like "giving your neighbor a grenade with a pulled-out pin" that could be "hurled back at us."

Adamov said the U.S. legislation was related to its presidential campaign. "Now that the election campaign is in progress, nothing is impossible," he said. "When elections are over in the United States, they will calm down and, I think, will start retreating."

In a meeting Tuesday, Ilya Klebanov, a deputy prime minister who oversees Russia's military industrial complex, also protested the new law to Vice President Gore's foreign policy adviser, Leon Fuerth, who is visiting Moscow this week.

In another development, Russian officials announced this week that they will continue selling conventional weapons and spare parts to Iran despite a 1995 agreement between Gore and then-Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin to halt the deliveries by this year.

Sergei Ivanov, secretary of the Kremlin Security Council, told reporters that Russia is "not going to conclude any new agreements with Iran . . . for the time being," but "we continue to implement the contracts" signed before the 1995 agreement. Ivanov claimed that Russia has "reached virtually full mutual understanding" with the United States on the continued sales.

---

Russia Communist Seek Votes

MARCH 16, 14:42 EST
By ANGELA CHARLTON
Associated Press Writer
http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=EUROPE&STORYID=APIS738JIBO0

CHELYABINSK, Russia (AP) - Usually stiff and stern, Communist presidential candidate Gennady Zyuganov flirted with students and took the stage at a comedy contest Thursday as he sought the youth vote 10 days ahead of elections in which he runs a distant second.

Retirees nostalgic for Soviet-era stability make up Zyuganov's core electorate and are expected to turn out in large numbers for him in the March 26 voting, although pre-election polls show him far behind acting President Vladimir Putin.

But the 55-year-old Communist Party chief appears determined to expand his support base, and lavished attention on the under-30 crowd during a campaign tour of Chelyabinsk, a Ural Mountains industrial city 930 miles east of Moscow.

``Good for you for choosing such a difficult profession,'' he said, patting the shoulder of a young medical resident testing laser equipment at the regional cancer hospital.

``Hello beautiful,'' Zyuganov said with a grin every time he passed a female medical student.

Irina Sharupova, a 22-year-old student, blushed when Zyuganov passed by.

``He's sweet. But I don't think I'll vote for him. His ideas are dying ideas. We don't need more dying,'' she said.

Years of Soviet-era nuclear tests in the Chelyabinsk region exposed people in dozens of towns to high radiation, causing a high cancer rate. Zyuganov promised wage increases for the hospital's doctors, who earn $28 to $42 a month.

Zyuganov has criticized Putin for the acting president's failure to state a detailed program for addressing the country's complex economic ills. But Putin appears a shoo-in, with a poll released Thursday showing him with 58 percent support against 21 percent for Zyuganov, his nearest challenger.

Later Thursday, Zyuganov attended a contest for college comedy troupes and said he had performed in a similar group at school.

``So if you want to become a presidential candidate you must do this, too,'' he said, climbing on stage with an awkward bounce.

Zyuganov bellowed with laughter and his face turned as red as his tie when he was targeted by the skits.

The students seemed excited and bemused. Some said they would consider voting for him, after seeing him in person.

He also toned down his hard-line rhetoric at most of the day's events.

``We will use normal, democratic means to improve the situation in the country,'' he said in an interview on local television.

But Zyuganov did not abandon his loyal supporters. In a two-hour speech in a theater bulging with several hundred people - few of whom were under 60 - he extolled Soviet industrial might and said Russia should be grateful to dictator Josef Stalin for the Soviet victory over the Nazis.

Zyuganov also pledged to shore up Russia's nuclear industry. The Chelyabinsk region housed top Soviet nuclear research centers, which have sharply curtailed their operations for lack of funds since the end of the Cold War.

Zyuganov lost the presidential runoff in 1996 to Boris Yeltsin, getting 40 percent of the vote.

The poll released Thursday by the All-Russia Opinion Research Center showed none of the other candidates anywhere near Putin and Zyuganov. It showed the leader of the liberal Yabloko party, Grigory Yavlinsky, with 5 percent of the vote, and ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky with 3 percent. None of the other eight candidates received more than 2 percent. The poll of 1,600 people gave a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

-----------

Russia Nixes Actor's Mir Mission

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV
Associated Press Writer
MARCH 16, 15:57 EST
http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=EUROPE&STORYID=APIS738KLF00

MOSCOW (AP) - Actor Vladimir Steklov was supposed to blast off to the Mir next month to portray a renegade cosmonaut who won't leave the space station, but now Russia won't let him get off Earth, a space official said Thursday.

The space movie in which Steklov was to have starred was another in a series of unorthodox proposals for resuscitating the dormant space station with private money.

But Konstantin Kreidenko, a spokesman for the Russian Aerospace Agency, said that Steklov ``will not go to Mir as earlier planned because of the failure to meet the terms of the contract.'' Kreidenko declined to give details, but it appears that Steklov's producers couldn't pay for his ticket.

Although producers of the movie, tentatively titled ``The Last Journey,'' claimed they made an initial payment to get the project under way, Russian space officials complained they haven't even been paid for Steklov's training, let alone the multimillion-dollar bill for the flight.

Steklov complained that his investment of time for training came to nothing. ``Now I am a jobless actor, a hobo,'' he said, according to the Interfax news agency.

The movie was to have told the story of a renegade cosmonaut who refuses to leave Mir, insisting he'll orbit the Earth for the rest of his days. Ground controllers decide to send up a woman to lure him back.

In real life, cosmonauts Sergei Zalyotin and Alexander Kaleri are tentatively set to blast off to Mir on April 4, he said. The station has been unmanned since August.

Zalyotin and Kaleri are expected to spend 45 days on board Mir. They will take a movie camera with them and possibly shoot some footage for the movie, Kreidenko said.

The state-controlled RKK Energia company that built and owns the 14-year old station has made frantic efforts to keep it aloft by raising private funds.

Russia's cash-strapped government had said it would abandon the station this month unless private investors came up with funds.

But the government changed its mind and kept Mir in orbit after the Amsterdam-based MirCorp agreed to pay between $10 million and $20 million - the price was not disclosed - for the rights to offer rides to space tourists, provide satellite repair and produce products in weightlessness.

Ownership of the station remains with the Russian government, and Acting President Vladimir Putin has already pledged to keep Mir alive.

The government has ruled that Energia can use booster rockets and cargo ships for the Mir which had originally been earmarked for the International Space Station project.

The reapportioning has angered the U.S. space agency NASA; the ISS already is far behind schedule because of Russia's failure to provide a key module.

Russia, in turn, is annoyed about a law signed by President Clinton this week that would cut U.S. payments to Russia for the ISS project if Russian companies are found to have helped Iran develop nuclear arms.

The Russian Foreign Ministry on Wednesday called the new U.S. measure ``yet another attempt to give internal U.S. legislation an extraterritorial nature, which goes completely against international law.''

----------- taiwan

Taiwan: Crisis in the Making?
Experts Differ on Whether Rising Tensions Will Lead to a U.S.-China Clash

By Robert G. Kaiser and Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, March 16, 2000; Page A22
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/2000-03/16/248l-031600-idx.html

When Taiwan held its first democratic presidential election four years ago, China fired ballistic missiles over the island 100 miles from its coast. The United States responded with its biggest show of force in Asia since the Vietnam War, sending two aircraft carriers and 14 other warships to Taiwan.

As Taiwan prepares to vote again Saturday, there have been threatening missives, but no missiles; a war of words, but no warships. Yet, senior U.S. officials are bracing for the possibility that Taiwan's election of a new president could bring a period of high tension with China and compel the United States to make difficult choices.

For half a century, the United States has dealt with China's territorial claim to Taiwan by "exporting the problem to the future," in the words of Morton Abramowitz, a former diplomat and Pentagon official. But rising nationalism in China and Taiwan, the widening gap between China's ossified communist political system and Taiwan's vigorous new democracy, Chinese military modernization and reciprocal moves in the U.S. Congress to defend the island are pushing the Taiwan question into the present.

"We're heading toward a collision course on this now," said former defense secretary William J. Perry, who dispatched the carrier battle groups to Taiwan in 1996.

Policymakers in Washington once hoped that an evolving China, after opening up to the world, would be able to negotiate a peaceful resolution with Taiwan. Many now see the mainland of 1.2 billion people and the island of 22 million drifting further apart.

"Democracy in Taiwan has changed the whole situation in ways that are inadequately appreciated," said Paul Wolfowitz, dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a senior official in the Reagan and Bush administrations.

Some senior officials believe a crisis could come soon. In little-noticed testimony to Congress last month, CIA Director George Tenet said the agency saw a "high potential" that Saturday's election could be "the catalyst" for "another military flare-up across the Taiwan Strait."

Others, however, believe a military confrontation is unlikely, at least in the short term. Adm. Dennis Blair, commander of U.S. Pacific forces, testified in Congress last week that "at the current time, the rhetoric is more heated than the military moves."

National security adviser Samuel R. "Sandy" Berger said in an interview that the Taiwan situation is potentially dangerous and "could get worse, but I don't think that's the only scenario." Berger plans to visit Beijing soon after the election, and will urge China to remain calm.

Nonetheless, interviews with more than three dozen U.S. officials and academic experts found a broad consensus that the next three to five years will be a period of heightened tensions and potential crises.

"There is going to be a military confrontation," predicted Chas. W. Freeman Jr., a former assistant secretary of defense and retired American diplomat with long experience in China. While the clash may not be imminent, Freeman said, "it's very likely the U.S. and China are going to have a war over this issue."

Abramowitz was less gloomy. "This is not like Serbs and Kosovars--none of the parties wants any part of going to war," he said.

Allen Whiting, a professor at the University of Arizona who has studied the Chinese military for four decades, said that although he sees "a risk of war" if the Taiwan issue is not resolved, serious trouble is at least three years away. "There's quite a window here" to make a deal, Whiting said.

If there is a clash over Taiwan, China will enjoy military options it never had in the past. Beijing has already placed 200 ballistic missiles along its side of the Taiwan Strait and is adding 50 more missiles per year, U.S. officials said. China also has more than 40 advanced Russian fighter jets and has taken delivery of the first of two Russian-built destroyers equipped with sea-skimming missiles designed to penetrate U.S. naval defenses.

But none of the government analysts and scholars interviewed for this article predicted that China would try to conquer Taiwan by force. According to a U.S. official responsible for monitoring China's military, China has little capacity to mount an amphibious landing on Taiwan. Moreover, an unprovoked attack on the island would turn China into an international pariah, undermining its primary goal of economic development.

American analysts believe the aim of China's military buildup is, rather, to induce a sense of insecurity that will bring Taiwan to the negotiating table. One important calculation is whether the United States would hesitate to come to Taiwan's aid in a crisis.

When Perry dispatched the U.S. armada to Taiwan in 1996, intelligence agencies assured him that China's military did not pose a threat to the ships and would not even know they had arrived "until you announce them on television," according to one official. If the current defense secretary, William S. Cohen, proposed sending carrier task forces to Taiwan this year, U.S. officials said last week, the intelligence analysis would be different--and in five years it will be very different.

China recently announced another increase in its defense budget. U.S. analysts discount the official Chinese figures but believe the increase is substantial and estimate it will bring China's annual defense spending to roughly $45 billion. The U.S. defense budget this year is $291 billion.

On Capitol Hill, meanwhile, pressure is building to provide compensatory military and political support to Taiwan. The island's success in transforming a martial-law dictatorship into a thriving democracy has won it many new friends, particularly among liberal Democrats who used to denounce the old regime in Taipei. The House recently gave overwhelming approval to the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, a bill intended to strengthen U.S. ties with Taiwan's military.

On two recent occasions, President Clinton also has tipped his hat to Taiwan's democratization by saying--to the delight of Taiwan supporters--that the differences between the island and the mainland must be resolved peacefully and "with the assent of the people of Taiwan," a new formulation of U.S. policy.

Soon the United States will have to decide how to respond to Taiwan's latest requests to buy American weapons, including destroyers with Aegis anti-missile defenses. China has reacted angrily to the proposed sales, but the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act requires the administration to give Taiwan the means to protect itself. "Unquestionably, there will be additional sales this year," Berger said.

After the return of British-run Hong Kong in 1997 and Portuguese-run Macau in 1999, Taiwan is the last reunification issue on Beijing's agenda. It's also a cause that appeals to Chinese nationalism and could rally popular support for the leadership: "It's a life and death issue for the Chinese regime," said one U.S. official.

In a formal "white paper" last month, the Chinese government threatened to use force if Taiwan refuses indefinitely to discuss reunification. But the same document also said China would be willing to indulge Taiwanese autonomy for many years, as long as Taiwan accepted the principle that there is only "one China."

Thomas Christensen, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specializes in Chinese foreign policy, said he fears that officials in Beijing may convince themselves that a dramatic show of force would compel Taiwan to accept China's offer of reunification based on the notion of "one country, two systems," with virtual autonomy for Taiwan.

Some old China hands see the white paper, along with yesterday's blunt warning against Taiwanese independence by Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, as evidence that Chinese leaders often don't appreciate the impact of their rhetoric outside their own country.

Former secretary of state Henry Kissinger said he worries that China and the United States will drift into hostility without a real strategic reason for doing so. "We are talking ourselves into becoming each other's principal enemy," he said.

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Taiwan Stocks Plunge on China Words

MARCH 16, 14:19 EST
By WILLIAM FOREMAN
Associated Press Writer
http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=ASIA&STORYID=APIS738J79G0

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) - The grimacing face of a Chinese leader wagging his finger and threatening to attack this island greeted Taiwanese in newspapers Thursday and many reacted by dumping their stocks ahead of Saturday's election.

The panic seemed to be the goal of Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, who in a raised voice warned Taiwan on Wednesday that electing a pro-independence president could bring war.

Zhu's harsh language, which he punctuated with a pointed finger, was replayed throughout the day on Taiwan's TV newscasts and covered extensively in newspapers.

Some analysts said the scowling Zhu's remarks and gestures could backfire, sending voters to Beijing's least favorite candidate: Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party.

Although Zhu did not name a candidate, his remarks were clearly directed at Chen and his party, which believes Taiwan should permanently break away from China.

The youthful, former Taipei mayor has a good shot at winning the winner-take-all election, according to most polls. Chen and two other main candidates were in a statistical tie in most surveys when a government blackout on the publication of poll results took effect March 8.

In the final days of the campaign, Chen has been getting key endorsements and attracting large, enthusiastic crowds at rallies - signs that he has the greatest momentum. Election results were expected Saturday.

The two other candidates vying to replace retiring President Lee Teng-hui are populist independent James Soong and Vice President Lien Chan of the Nationalist Party. Both have never supported independence and are widely believed to be moderates preferred by Beijing.

Most Taiwanese have grown up hearing threats of war from China and they often shrug them off as communist rhetoric. The two sides split amid civil war in 1949, and Beijing has repeatedly warned that it would use its massive military against Taiwan if it sought independence.

Pan Li-fan, an export firm manager, said Thursday he thought that Zhu was just putting on a ``political show'' and China wouldn't attack. He agreed with many military experts who say China lacks the warships and planes to take the heavily fortified island.

``When your rascal neighbor comes to disturb you, you should simply ignore him and go on with your life,'' Pan said.

But the electronic board at the Taipei stock trading room where Pan was checking his investments seemed to be evidence that many Taiwanese were taking China's threats seriously.

Investors began selling their shares as soon as the stock market opened Thursday, sending the index plunging by as much as 4.5 percent. The market rebounded and blue chips closed up 0.5 percent after government funds stepped in and started aggressively buying shares.

The jitters in the market could spread to the voting booth, prompting some of the large number of undecided voters to support Soong or Lien, said Hung Yung-tai, director of the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University.

But many of the voters who would be frightened by China probably wouldn't have considered voting for Chen anyway, Hung said.

``He only needs to attract a little more than one-third of the vote to win, so maybe he's not worrying about these people,'' Hung said, adding that Zhu's threats could anger swing voters and send them to Chen.

Chen is not part of the hard-line, pro-independence wing of his party, and he has softened his position on the issue in recent months, saying he would only declare independence if China attacked. He has also said he wouldn't change the flag or Taiwan's official name, the Republic of China.

At a Thursday news conference, Chen urged China to be a responsible global power and not create instability in Asia by threatening Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Lien criticized China for trying to interfere in Taiwan's election. ``Today the two sides have a new era, a new century and a new government. We should have new thinking,'' Lien told reporters.

But both Soong and Lien continued to paint Chen as someone who would ignite a conflict with China.

The Nationalists began running a new TV ad, showing a Chinese submarine and listing the mainland's nuclear weaponry. The commercial ends with the sound of a bomb exploding and a message urging voters to support Lien.

At a campaign stop, Soong told supporters, ``If you vote for Chen, there will be no peace across the Taiwan Strait.''

During Taiwan's first direct presidential election in 1996, China lobbed nuclear-capable missiles near the island's two major ports. The United States sent two aircraft carriers and other warships to the region to end the crisis.

So far, Taiwan's military said things seem calm in the 80-mile-wide Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from China.

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On the Net:
Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party, www.dpp.org.tw

Independent James Soong, www.soong.org.tw/global/

Nationalist Vice President Lien Chan, www.yes2000.org.tw/english/

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TODAY'S HEADLINERS

Washington Times
March 16, 2000
Daybook
http://www.washtimes.com/national/daybook-2000316214424.htm

Taiwan elections - 10 a.m. - The Brookings Institution holds a panel discussion on the Taiwanese elections. Location: Chinese Room, Renaissance Mayflower Hot