----------- china

Taiwan: China Missiles Not a Threat

By The Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 10:08 a.m. EST
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Taiwan-China.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991228/aponline100847_000.htm

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- China is building a missile base near its coast facing Taiwan, but the short-range missiles are intended to protect a nearby air base and will pose no threat to the island, an official said Tuesday.

The base being built near Zhangzhou in southern Fujian province is expected to deploy missiles with a range of between 18 and 54 miles, Defense Ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ting told reporters. Taiwan is 110 miles to the west, well out of range.

Intelligence obtained by Taiwan indicates the missile base is designed to protect the air base, where advanced warplanes are stationed, Kung said.

Taiwan sees Chinese ballistic missiles and submarines as posing the biggest military threat to the island.

Taiwan and China were divided by civil war in 1949. Beijing insists on eventual reunification and has threatened to use force if necessary.

---

Red China's 'Bill of Indictment'

Willis Witter Washington Times December 28, 1999
http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/Witter-19991228.htm

Gen. Xiong Guangkai: The name is worth remembering. The scuttlebutt in Washington is that Gen. Xiong has been anointed by Beijing to visit the United States sometime in the near future. His mission: to resume the so-called "strategic partnership" between China and the United States.

A veritable stampede of reciprocal visits by Chinese and U.S. generals has been a hallmark of the Clinton administration's policy of military engagement with China. Chinese generals came to the United States to review troops, tour military bases and U.S. Navy ships, watch basic training, observe war games and collect American battle plans.

In a huff, Beijing broke off military ties with Washington after the United States bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during last year's air war in Yugoslavia. But if China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) profited half as much from its coziness with the Pentagon as authors Edward Timperlake and William C. Triplett II claim in their book, "Red Dragon Rising," the Chinese generals won't be able to stay away for long.

The book comes as a sequel to the author's best-selling "Year of the Rat," which detailed the Clinton administration's affection for Chinese campaign cash. The new book begins with a front cover photo of President Clinton and Gen. Chi Haotian, China's defense minister. For those who have forgotten, Gen. Chi, during his 1996 visit to Washington that included the photo-op in the Oval Office, told a friendly audience at the U.S. National Defense University that no one had been killed at Tiananmen Square.

The authors describe their book as a "Bill of Indictment." They say the Chinese regime's primary goal is territorial albeit not in the sense of building an Asian empire as the Imperial Japanese army sought earlier this century. Nevertheless, it is argued, some pretty big territorial ambitions lie behind a bold arms buildup now underway - the main one being Taiwan.

A secondary, and not unrelated goal, is money - cash that can buy the latest fighter jets from the Soviet Union and equip them with high-tech weapons systems from willing sellers such as Israel.

As long as a cash-hungry PLA thinks it can avoid getting caught by the United States, it will sell equipment and technology to make nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles for delivering them to anyone with cash. Its best customers are Libya, Iran, Iraq, North Korea and Syria. "When one asks, 'Is China a threat?' the real question should be, 'Is the PLA a threat?' " the authors maintain.

The book offers a new twist in retelling the events of June 4, 1989, when PLA troops gunned down hundreds, perhaps thousands of protestors and bystanders on the streets of Beijing near Tiananmen Square. It names the six PLA generals that ran the attack. Gen. Chi, seen grinning at Mr. Clinton on the front cover, had operational command of the troops.

Another of the six is Gen. Xiong -the chief of military intelligence who is rumored to be on his way to Washington to rekindle the U.S.-China partnership. Gen. Xiong, who visited the Pentagon a few years ago, was responsible for creating a spate of incidents with Tiananmen protestors to justify the use of force.

During a 1996 crisis over Taiwan, Gen. Xiong issued a not-so-subtle threat to vaporize Los Angeles in a nuclear mushroom cloud. American officials, he said at the time, "care more about Los Angeles then they do about Taiwan."

Gen. Xiong, as China's top spymaster, also masterminded the theft of U.S. nuclear secrets from the Los Alamos laboratory and elsewhere, according to the authors.

Perhaps the book's most frightening contribution is a hypothetical scenario of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, labeled "An electronic Pearl Harbor." It would combine a limited missile attack, the takeover by Chinese troops of a key airfield or two and an all-out assault using a new and largely untested weapon - cyberwarfare.

The scenario sounds a bit like Tom Clancy, but if it seems far-fetched, the book cites plenty of evidence that electronic warfare is at the top of the PLA's agenda to build a credible offensive military force.

One can criticize the book for engulfing readers in a maelstrom of gloom without offering a way out. Is it in America's best interests, for example to expand trade and economic ties with China? Unfortunately the authors do not delve into broader aspects of Sino-U.S ties. Still, their clear intention is to influence policy in the next administration.

A reader can't help but question whether the Clinton administration's notion of "strategic partnership" will ultimately prove as futile as Neville Chamberlain's policy in the 1930s. A cynic could be forgiven for concluding the strategy might work, provided the United States is prepared to abandon Taiwan as Britain and France did much of Europe.

Willis Witter is an assistant foreign editor of The Washington Times

----------- europe

Europe Is Battered Again by Fierce Winds

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS New York Times December 28, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Europe-Storms.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991228/aponline123159_000.htm

Related Articles
http://www.nytimes.com/99/12/28/late/28france.html
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/international/international-weather.html

Battered by Fierce Storm, Europe Begins Enormous Cleanup (Dec. 28)
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/122899europe-storm.html

Storm Kills at Least 62 in France, Switzerland and Germany (Dec. 27)
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/122799europe-storm.html

Second Killer Storm Batters Europe
http://news.excite.com/news/ap/991228/16/europe-storms

PARIS -- A second wave of fierce gales tore up trees and blew roofs from buildings today in France, killing 17 people along the southwestern Atlantic coast and bringing the death toll from recent storms in Western Europe to at least 97, police said.

Following storms that ravaged the north of France on Sunday, a second wave of rain and devastating winds, some up to 93 mph, hit several regions of the country. The new fatalities brought the death toll in France since Sunday to 61.

The severe weather also took a cultural toll. Slabs of roofing of the Notre Dame cathedral were blown off, and a stained-glass window at the Sainte-Chapelle was shattered. Worst hit among France's great monuments was the royal palace and park at Versailles, where the roof was damaged, windows were broken and more than 10,000 trees were knocked down.

France's National Fund for Historic Sites and Monuments estimated that it will cost between $62 million and $77 million to repair damaged cultural monuments.

Today's storm brought torrential rain to the north, causing rivers to overflow their banks. There were no immediate reports of fatalities.

In Paris today, the swollen Seine River flooded riverside roads and walkways in several parts of the city. Paris officials have asked the government to declare the city a natural disaster area.

In the Vendee region, on France's western coast, more than 2,000 people were evacuated from their homes due to floods and spent the night in town halls.

After dawn, weather conditions in most of the country remained calm and no new storms were forecast. But at least 3.4 million homes were without electricity, officials said.

"France has been wounded and many French are faced with cruel hardship just when they were about to celebrate the end of the year and the millennium," President Jacques Chirac said today.

Transport Minister Jean-Claude Gayssot said extensive damage to the country's public transport network, caused mostly by fallen trees or flooding, would not be totally fixed before the end of the year.

"The damage is considerable," he said. "Road, rail and air routes are affected. We are really in great difficulty."

No trains were running today from Paris to Bordeaux, and only one in three was servicing the east. But trains running north from the capital were almost back to normal, and the Eurostar service to London was unaffected.

Major disruption was predicted on routes to ski resorts in the Alps. Resorts in the Pyrenees Mountains were closed due to avalanche fears.

Three nuclear reactors at a power station near Bordeaux were closed late Monday after water from the flooding Grinned River seeped into the installations.

On Monday, residents in the north had to pick their way through streets littered with broken glass and uprooted trees. In Paris, traffic lights were bent and newspaper kiosks were blown over.

Some 60,000 trees were uprooted or damaged in two forests on the outskirts of Paris, and another 2,000 were damaged along the city's streets. Authorities warned people not to visit forests because many trees still risk falling over.

Paris Mayor Jean Tiberi said urgent repair work would be done quickly, and predicted that millennium parties in the city, expected to draw millions of revelers, would not be disrupted.

The winds have also hampered the cleanup of an oil slick off France's western coast after a tanker broke in two on Dec. 12. Violent waves have broken up much of the slick, and oil has washed up on large swathes of beaches.

The storms, which began before dawn on Sunday, wreaked havoc across Europe, disrupting travel by road, rail and air and stranding tens of thousands of holiday travelers.

Seventeen people died in Germany and 13 were killed in Switzerland. A sixth person died in northern Spain today after her boat capsized in heavy winds.

Snow has also been falling since the weekend in eastern France and large parts of central and eastern Europe, disrupting traffic.

In the Slovak capital, Bratislava, the Devinska Nova Ves district was cut off from the rest of the city today because so many vehicles were stalled in heavy snow.

----------- iraq

U.S. Opposition Group Visits Iraq

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 9:09 a.m. EST http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Iraq-Sympathetic-Visitors.html

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- Americans who oppose the U.S. government's policy on Iraq ended a Christmas visit Tuesday meant to focus attention on the suffering of Iraqi children.

During their weeklong visit, the group spent Christmas among the Iraqi Christian community in Basra, a city some 335 miles south of Baghdad.

``We spent Christmas morning in one of the hospitals where we saw for ourselves infants dying because there is never enough medicine,'' said Chuck Quilty of Rock Island, Ill., one of eight American Catholics in the Voices in the Wilderness delegation.

Voices in the Wilderness is a U.S. group that has been among the most vocal organizations calling for an end to U.N. trade and travel sanctions against Iraq. The U.S. government has insisted that sanctions remain until Iraq convinces the United Nations it has surrendered its weapons of mass destruction and its capability to produce them.

Critics argue the sanctions hurt ordinary Iraqis, denying them basics such as food and medicine.

Earlier this year, U.N. Children's Fund chief Carol Bellamy said the trade sanctions weren't the only reason for the plight of Iraqi children. She also cited Iraq's wars with its neighbors and its government's lack of investment in children's health care.

A UNICEF report in August concluded that in state-controlled areas of Iraq, the mortality rate among children under 5 had more than doubled in 10 years.

Another sympathetic visitor, British Member of Parliament George Galloway, was hailed by the official Iraqi media on Monday for his ``spirit of knighthood.''

Galloway, a member of the ruling Labor Party, had announced plans to fly in a planeload of medicine early next year. Galloway also said he was collecting donations to build a cancer hospital in Baghdad.

In November, Galloway wound up a two-month journey across Europe, North Africa and the Middle East on a double-decker London bus in a campaign to drum up support for lifting the U.N. sanctions.

The maverick left-wing Scottish politician met Monday with Iraqi Vice-Chairman of the Revolutionary Command Council Izzat Ibrahim.

The United Nations imposed economic sanctions on Iraq after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Iraq says the sanctions have caused well over 1 million deaths.

---

Iraq Criticizes Russia Over U.N. Resolution

Reuters December 28, 1999 Filed at 9:45 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/international/international-iraq-ru.html

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A senior member of Iraq's ruling Baath party criticised Russia Tuesday for failing to use its veto to block a U.N. Security Council resolution linking any easing of Gulf War sanctions to a new weapons inspection regime.

The Security Council narrowly adopted the resolution on December 17, with abstentions by permanent council members Russia, China and France.

``With our due respect to the abstention of Russia, China, France and Malaysia, Russia's use of the veto was necessary to confront this resolution,'' the official Iraqi News Agency quoted Abdul-Ghani Abdul Ghafour as saying.

Ghafour was speaking at the start of talks with Russian ultra-nationalist leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

INA quoted Zhirinovsky as saying that the United Nations' resolution was a poor one and evidence of Washington's failure to get a consensus at the Security Council on Iraq.

The resolution, sponsored by Britain and adopted after months of contentious negotiations, could send U.N. weapons inspectors back to Iraq and ease Gulf War sanctions if Baghdad cooperates with a new U.N. disarmament agency.

Iraq has interpreted the close vote as proof of divisions in the council. Baghdad, which has said it no longer has any weapons of mass destruction, has already stated its rejection of the resolution, presenting the council with a new problem.

Zhirinovsky has made several visits to Baghdad to voice his party's solidarity with Iraq in demanding the lifting of sanctions imposed for Baghdad's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

----------- israel

Why Should Israel Reward Syria?

New York Times December 28, 1999 By ARIEL SHARON
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/oped/28shar.html

JERUSALEM -- As the Israeli and the Syrian teams hurry back to Washington to resume negotiations, we are told this is the last and only chance for peace and that Israel must take it or face war. I believe this hasty approach is wrong, misleading and, above all, dangerous.

Israel must adopt an approach that will allow it to assess Syrian intentions over time before making any commitment to give up the commanding high grounds of the Golan Heights.

And since in Israel, the only real democracy in the Middle East, we like to do things the American way, I suggest we should also adopt the American model when negotiating the vital issue of control of the heights. The United States ended the cold war and brought stability to Western Europe because it understood that peace must be based on dealing effectively with the military capabilities of former adversaries and not on changes in intentions alone.

It kept the defensive shield of NATO intact, and any alterations in Western strength were based on reciprocity by the Soviet Union. If this kind of concern for security was essential in Europe, it is of critical importance in the shifting sands of the Middle East, and particularly when dealing with Syria.

What would United States negotiators have demanded if the Golan Heights were an American asset? I believe they would have stressed several points.

First, there must be no rewards for the aggressor. In most conflicts negotiated in this century, the aggressor paid by losing territory, as Japan and Germany did after World War II. Syria attacked Israel three times: in 1948, 1967 and the Yom Kippur War of 1973. From 1948 to 1967, it carried on a war of attrition against Israeli civilians by attempting to divert vital water resources from Israel.

Now Israel is asked to reward the aggressor by allowing return of the heights that rise over its territory in the valley below.

Knowledgeable statesmen and strategic experts have warned that, given the nondemocratic, authoritarian character of the Syrian regime and the unpredictability of what might take place in Syria after Hafez al-Assad is no longer in power, an Israeli agreement to return to the 1967 borders could cause it to end up with neither peace nor the Golan Heights.

Second, national defense requires territory. Most foreign defense experts and senior United States Army officers who have visited the Golan Heights or studied it repeat the categorical opinion that even in the missile age it is impossible to defend Israel effectively against a ground attack without military control of the Golan Heights. Syria has more than 4,000 tanks and 1,000 missiles, and the last and only line where an assault by them could be stopped runs through the center of the heights.

The missile threat and the vulnerability of Israel's home front do not allow Israeli military planners to rely any longer on a 24-hour rapid reserve mobilization system. The depth and space of the Golan can buy the time for regular forces to contain a surprise attack.

Furthermore, no country, including the United States, has ever given up territory and strategic depth just because it had advanced weapons systems or sophisticated early warning technology.

Third, Syrian armed forces must be reduced.Though Israel so far has not done so, it must insist that if it is to give up the defensive asset of the Golan Heights, a there must be not only a demilitarized zone on the Golan, but also a reduction of Syria's armed forces and the number of its missiles, and a dismantling of its arsenal of chemical warfare. Israel must also demand, though it has not yet done so, the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon, where a continued Syrian military presence would reduce Israel's ability to defend its northern borders.

Israel has not made explicit demands, either, that the United States will not rearm Syria with advanced Western weapons after an agreement is reached. Such rearming would erode the Israeli ability to deter attack and cancel the Israeli qualitative edge in weaponry that the United States has pledged to maintain.

Fourth, Israel must have control of its water resources, which are of great long-term importance in an arid region where there are already shortages. A third of Israel's water flows from the Golan Heights and could be diverted there, and it must continue to have a presence near these water sources.

Finally, comprehensive peace must also include measures to contain threats from Iraq and Iran, which have weapons of mass destruction and could also be sources of terrorist activity. This is another important issue about which Israel has made no specific demands in the current negotiations.

Since 1975, successive United States administrations have been committed to the principles in President Gerald Ford's 1975 letter to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin backing Israel's stance that any peace agreement be predicated on Israel remaining on the Golan Heights.

"Even in times of peace, we must hold the Golan Heights,Ehud Barak, then the Israeli military chief of staff, said in 1994. And he was not alone. Mr. Rabin took the same position clearly in 1992, when he was prime minister.

Today Israel is asked to make so-called painful compromises: giving up the Golan and transferring to foreign troops a major building block of its overall capability to defend itself, deter attacks and assure itself of early warning if an attack should occur. It is also being asked to bear the painful cost of transferring 18,000 of its own citizens and uprooting 33 communities, deepening already dangerous divisions in Israeli society. All this for what is at best an uncertain nonbelligerency agreement? Thanks, but no thanks.

I believe Israel must keep the Golan Heights. Peace is important for Israel, and we all seek it. But not less is it important for the Syrians. Isn't it about time that they were asked to make some painful compromises as well?

Ariel Sharon is chairman of Israel's Likud Party.

----------- russia

Open letter in support of Nikitin

1999.12.28 14:07
http://www.bellona.no/imaker?id=14023&sub=1

TO PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, BORIS YELTSIN TO PRIME MINISTER OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, VLADIMIR PUTIN

The court examination of Alexander Nikitin, the Russian employee of the Norwegian environmental organization Bellona, is drawing to a close in St. Petersburg. Nikitin is accused of espionage and divulging of state secrets for his participation in the preparation of the Bellona report The Russian Northern Fleet.

The investigation of a man whom security services call a spy has lasted four years. It was recently announced that the prosecutor has called for twelve years of imprisonment of Alexander Nikitin.

Environmentalists and international civil rights activists are aware that a publicity campaign has been waged against Nikitin through the use of the press and television in order to discredit him. In particular, state television channel 5 showed a slanderous series previously prepared and clearly timed to coincide with the court examination. The use of expensively prepared footage, including shots of distant locations and of a large number of people living far from St. Petersburg, demonstrates the large amount of money spent on the television series. The film was designed as an attempt to discredit not only the environmental activist, but also those who surround him: His relatives, friends, civil rights supporters, journalists, and the entire environmental movement in Russia in general.

Under conditions of such flagrant trampling of the law, we are extremely concerned that the decision of the court cannot be objective nor without unbiased. We appeal to you to provide observance of those norms of international law that our country has pledged in written form to obey.

Those norms categorically forbid external pressure on the court. Those norms are now being violated!

The international community is observing the case of Nikitin. In the same way that this court examination is being conducted and international legal norms are being observed in Russia, so will Russia's road to democracy also be judged.

Russia must not remain a state in which the punitive organs of power remain stronger than the interests of its citizens, law, and justice.

Signed by (27.12.99): Tat'yana Artemova, commentator for the journal Posev (St. Petersburg) e-mail: posev@mail.wplus.net

Boris Vdovin, Institut Urbanistiki (St. Petersburg) e-mail: vdvnord@mailbox.alkor.ru

Lina Zernova, commentator of the newspaper "Smena" (St. Petersburg) e-mail: lina@sbor.net

Elena Kobets, SPbO RAN, Transboundary Environmental Information Agency e-mail: kobets@teia.org

Andrei Kozlovich (Fond "Ariston", Kareliya) e-mail: ariston@karelia.ru

Vladimir Levchenko, moderator ENWL (St. Petersburg) e-mail: vflew@lew.spb.org

Popov Evgenij Borisovich, Director of Biocenter, Chief editor of "Iunij biolog", uchreditel' i sopredsedatel' Obshchhestvennogo ekologicheskogo koordinacionnogo soveta St. Petersburga i Leningradskoj oblasti. Tel/fax +7 (812) 2982832, 3121645, e-mail:

Lev Aleksandrovich Fedorov 117292 Moskva, Profsoyuznaya ulica, 8-2-83, phone/fax: +7-095-129-05-96, E-mail: lefed@glasnet.ru Prezident Soyuza "Za khimicheskuyu bezopasnost'"

Ol'ga Nikolaevna Senova Obtchestvennaya ekologicheskaya detskaya regional'naya organizaciya "Deti Baltiki" St. Peterburg, Lomonosov. Predsedatel' pravleniya. Tel/fax: 812 422 3278, e-mail: olga@ons.ytc.spb.ru

Shkrebets Aleksandr Evgen'evich Transboundary Environmental Information Agency Tel. +7 (812) 323-4089 e-mail: sasha@teia.org

Andreev Gennadij Vasil'evich, Rukovoditel' Obshchestvennoj priemnoj myerii porazvitiyu predprinimatel'stva g.Tomska, konsul'tant mezhdunarodnogo astronomicheskogo soyuza; tel/fax (3822)-230427, e-mail: andreev@tbsc.tomsk.ru.

Zabelin Svyatoslav Igorevich, so-predsedatel' Soveta Mezhdunarodnogo Social'no-yekologicheskogo soyuza, tel.124-79-34-r, 151-62-70-dom e-mail: svet@glasnet.ru

Anna Badkhen, correspondent, St. Petersburg Times e-mail: badkhen@sptimes.ru

Valentina Kornutovna Bakmaster 3140 Walden Place Grove City, Ohio, 43123 e-mail: dbuckmas@columbus.rr.com

Ismail Chingizovich Nigmatullin, Kaliningradskaya regional'naya molodezhnaya obshchestvennaya organizaciya "Ekologicheskaya gruppa "GID", chlen Ispolnitel'nogo Soveta, ul.Botanicheskaya, 2, kab.14, 236006, Kaliningrad, Rossiya, tel.: +7-(0112) 461321; tel./fax: +7-(0112) 464486; e-mail: guideinfo@mail.ru

Mikhail Mikhajlovich Bogomolov. Zamestitel' predsedatelya Mezhdunarodnogo dvizheniya , direktor nekommercheskogo PR centra . Moskva. Tel./fax: (095) 253-8042. e-mail: dobro_prcc@mail.cnt.ru

Kolesnikova Viktoriya Borisovna, Center Koordinacii i Informacii SoES, Moskva, press-sekretar', tel. (095) 124-79-34 e-mail: seupress@glasnet.ru

Aranbaeva Annagul' Marlenstovna, Center Koordinacii i Informacii SoES, Moskva, menedzher proektov, tel. (095) 124-79-34 e-mail: seupress@glasnet.ru

Berlova Ol'ga Anatol'evna, Centr Koordinacii i Informacii SoES, Moskva, press-sekretar', tel. (095) 124-79-34 e-mail: seupress@glasnet.ru

Zabelina Nina Ivanovna, Centr Koordinacii i Informacii SoES, Moskva, sekretar' Soveta SoES, tel. (095) 124-79-34 e-mail: seupress@glasnet.ru

Tikhonov Valerij Borisovich, gazeta Ministerstva prirodnyikh resursov RF "Prirodno-resursnyie vedomosti", Moskva, korrespondent, tel. (095) 950-30-69 e-mail: seupress@glasnet.ru

Gus'kov Mikhail Aleksandrovich, Moskva, Druzhina Okhranyi Prirodyi MNYEPU, komandir, tel. (095)370-39-78 e-mail: seupress@glasnet.ru

Kochineva Anna Leonidovna, Centr Koordinacii i Informacii SoES, Moskva, press-sekretar', tel. (095) 124-79-34 e-mail: seupress@glasnet.ru

Zemcova Irina L'vovna, Centr Koordinacii i Informacii SoES, Moskva, ofis-menedzher, tel. (095) 124-79-34 e-mail: seupress@glasnet.ru

Garkun Zinaida Nikolaevna, Centr Koordinacii i Informacii SoES, Moskva, soredaktor "Lesnogo byulletenya", tel. (095) 124-79-34 e-mail: seupress@glasnet.ru

SERGEJ FEDORINCHIK, RUKOVODITEL' INFORMACIONNOGO CENTRA UKRAINSKOJ YEKOLOGICHESKOJ ASSOCIACII "ZYELYENYIJ SVIT", UKRAINA, 01001, KIEV-1, A/YA 449; tel.(044) 456-3435 e-mail: fedoryn@grworld.freenet.kiev.ua

Gennadij Anasovich Mingazov, glavnyij redaktor Karel'skoj yekologicheskoj gazetyi "Zelenyij list", Petrozavodsk, GreenLeaf@karelia.ru

Pazhenkov Aleksej Stanislavovich, predsedatel' soveta Centra sodejstviya "Volgo-Ural'skoj ekologicheskoj seti". 445045,Tol'yatti, a/ya1850, tel. (8482)242210, e-mail: lynx@infopac.ru

Mikhail Piskunov, predsedatel' soveta "Centra sodejstviya grazhdanskim iniciativam", g.Dimitrovgrad, adres dlya pochtovyikh otpravlenij: 433510, Dimitrovgrad Ul'yanovskoj oblasti, 4-GOS, a/ya 65. Tel/fax (84235) 3-66-26. e-mail: pma@gi.st.simbirsk.su

Irina Butorina, Predsedatel' Mariupol'skoj obtChestvennoj organizacii koordinacionnyij yekologicheskij centr "Strategiya", Ukraina. e-mail: strategy@mariupol.dn.ua

Boris Vladimirovich Nekrasov, predsedatel' Associacii molodyikh zhurnalistov Tomskoj oblasti, tel/fax: 3822 764652 e-mail: boris@asmo.tomsk.su

Lagutov V.V Zelenyij Don Predsedatel' Center of Coordination and Information "Azovbass" Nongovernmental Regional Ecological Movement "Green Don" Russia, Novocherkassk, 346430 box 4 tel. (7-86352) 27239 e-mail: zedon@novoch.ru

Curt Hoeflich"

Andrej Zatoka, sopredsedatel' Social'no-YEkologicheskogo Soyuza , a takzhe Ispolnitel'nyij direktor Mezhdunarodnogo instituta Bioraznoobraziya Central'noj Azii (Biostan), chlen Soveta Law and Environment Eurasia Partnership, grazhdanin Rossii adres: Turkmenistan, Centr-1, d.8. kv.23 tel. (993322)56683 e-mail: azat@tashauz.cat.glasnet.ru

Blinushov Andrej YUr'evich, predsedatel' RyazanskogopravozatChitnogo obtChestva "Memorial", gl. redaktor zhurnala "Karta", g. Ryazan', Rossiya tel/fax: (0912) 775117 e-mail: karta@glasnet.ru www.hro.org/war Gruppa Pravozatshitnaya Set'

Bodrov Oleg Viktorovich, Green World, obtChestvennoj blagotvoritel'noj yekologicheskoj organizacii, g. Sosnovyij Bor 188544 Leningradskoj obl., a/ya 68/7. tel./fax (81269) 49481 e-mail: bodrov@OB1628.spb.edu

Kharitonov Sergej Vasil'evich, Green World, likvidator chernobyil'skoj katastrofyi, operator Leningradskoj AYES, g. Sosnovyij Bor 188544, Leningradskoj obl., ul. Solnechnaya 37, kv. 67. tel. (81269) 42031

Terent'ev Oleg Serafimovich - predsedatel' Koordinacionnogo soveta Ekologicheskogo centra "Perspektiva Pechoryi" Respublika Komi, g.Pechora, tel.5-42-44 e-mail: tos@oleg.pcpes.elektra.ru

Anastasiya Matveeva, korrespondent telekompanii "NTV-Peterburg", programmyi "Segodnya" i "Segodnyachko-Piter"; tel.118-3535, 234-7505. e-mail: nastia@piter.net

Mikhail Begak, chlen politsoveta St. Petersburgskogo otdeleniya ob`edineniya "Yabloko", glav. red. gazetyi "Nevskij obozrevatel'". Michael Begak (mike@begak.spb.su)

Zyikov Vladimir Vasil'evich, direktor YUzhno-Kamchatskogo prirodnogo parka, Kamchatskaya oblast', tel. (41531)6-17-54 sl. e-mail: zapoved@elrus.kamchatka.su

Nikolaj Formozov, k.b.n. (MGU, Biofak) e-mail:

Aleksandr Veselov - predsedatel' Soyuza yekologov Bashkirii. e-mail: rinko@ufa.ru

Sergej Anackij, st.prepodavatel' SPb gos.universiteta, k.b.n. (St. Petersburg) e-mail: anatsky@fish.bio.lgu.spb.su

Roman Romanov Sevastopol'skaya pravozatshitnaya gruppa Ispolnitel'nyij direktor e-mail: right@ukrcom.sebastopol.ua Tel./fax: (0692) 41 57 14

Leonid Machulin Khar'kov ul. Sumskaya,11 (0572) 126-570 e-mail: lm@mradio.kharkov.ua

Aleksej Arkad'evich Voinov Nauchnyij sotrudnik University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Institute for Ecological Economics, P.O. Box 38, Solomons, MD 20688 EMAIL: voinov@cbl.umces.edu TEL: 410 326 7207 WWW: http://kabir.cbl.umces.edu/AV FAX: 410 326 7354

Damov Vasilij Mikhajlovich Molodezhnoe pravozatChitnoe dvizhenie - Krasnoyarsk, Sibir'. tel/fax 8(3912) 23-43-59 e-mail: publicity@krasu.ru

Gennadij Pavlovich Smirnov, zav. gruppoj po izucheniyu morskikh mlekopitayutchikh Chukotskogo otdeleniya TINRO, predsedatel' CHukotskogo obtChestvennogo yekologicheskogo ob`edineniya Kajra-klub, tel. rab. 2-66-47, 2-60-41, dom. 2-05-87, e-mail: kaira@anadyr.ru

Dmitrij Aleksandrovich SHejnin Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Massachusettskij Tekhnologicheskij Institut), 54-1726, ~Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA (978) 263-6682 e-mail: sheinin@tiac.net

Alla Shevchuk, Odesskoe otdelenie Mezhdunarodnogo Social'no-yekologicheskogo soyuza (Odessa), e-mail: alla@eco.odessa.ua

Aleksandr Sutyagin e-mail: good_alex@mail.ru

Nathaniel Trumbull Transboundary Environmental Information Agency Tel. +7 812 323 4089 e-mail: nat@teia.org

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Russia Missile Forces Pass Y2K Test

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 8:33 a.m. EST
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Y2K-Russia-Missiles.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991228/aponline083357_000.htm

MOSCOW (AP) -- Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, which control the country's nuclear arsenal and its defense satellites, have been preparing for the year 2000 computer bug for a long time and expect no foul-ups, officials said today.

Strategic Missile Forces chief Col. Gen. Vladimir Yakovlev said the military command was not at all worried about the possibility of temporary radar blackouts or an accidental nuclear launch.

``Today one can confidently declare that the software of the force ... is absolutely ready for the year 2000,'' Yakovlev said.

Both Russian and U.S. officials say that an accidental missile launch is highly unlikely, and they will be consulting each other over the New Years holiday to make sure nothing goes wrong. The bug could cause older computers that read only the last two digits of a date to mistake 2000 for 1900 and produce false information or seize up.

Strategic Missile Forces spokesman Ilshat Baichurin said the military command had been preparing for the bug for almost two years.

``The chief command of the force already at the beginning of last year developed a clear program of transition to the new millennium ... and has been consistently implementing it,'' Baichurin said.

Russia has been slower to address the millennium bug than many other countries because of the government's money crunch. Several western experts have predicted electricity and telephone services may stop working because of the glitch.

----------- ukraine

Ukraine Reactor Halted by Thief

By The Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 9:52 a.m. EST
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Ukraine-Nuclear.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991228/aponline095203_000.htm

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) -- A reactor at Ukraine's Yuzhnaya nuclear power plant was temporarily shut down after a thief tried to steal a power cable, nuclear officials said Tuesday.

The cable, which provides electricity to the No. 1 reactor, broke Monday night during the attempted theft, the Energoatom state nuclear company said. Operators repaired the cable and later restarted the reactor, increasing its output gradually.

The incident did not affect the plant's safety. It was the first time Energoatom had reported someone trying to steal a cable from a working reactor.

Metal thefts are common in Ukraine, with the thieves often trying to sell off the goods as scrap.

Ukraine, site of the world's worst nuclear catastrophe at Chernobyl in 1986, operates five nuclear power plants. Currently, 10 out of the country's 14 reactors are working, and produce about 40 percent of the country's electricity output.

----------- us nuc weapons facilities

Two Sides Clash Over Bail for Indicted Atom Scientist

New York Times December 28, 1999 By JAMES STERNGOLD
http://www.nytimes.com/99/12/28/news/national/china-nuke.html

ALBUQUERQUE, Dec. 27 -- Federal prosecutors provided a judge new, highly detailed evidence against a nuclear scientist today in their effort to have him kept in jail as he awaits trial on charges of misusing weapons secrets.

But in its cross-examination of a top government computer expert, the scientist's lawyers relentlessly attacked the prosecution's complex, highly circumstantial case, suggesting that whatever had been done by the defendant, Wen Ho Lee, he had never acted with criminal intent.

The government presented evidence that as a nuclear engineer at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Dr. Lee had methodically and repeatedly violated a series of procedures meant to protect data concerning the design, construction and testing of atomic weapons. The defense, however, tried to show that Dr. Lee had done nothing to disguise any of his steps and that in most instances the incriminating evidence had been left unhidden for as long as six years.

Dr. Lee has maintained in the past that he downloaded the secret data to unsecure computers to protect it in case of computer breakdowns.

In March, after some four years in which he was a focus of federal investigations into the possibility that China had stolen American nuclear secrets, the Taiwan-born Dr. Lee, a naturalized citizen of the United States, was dismissed from his Los Alamos job for security violations.

Two weeks ago he was indicted on charges that he had violated numerous security procedures in downloading some of the country's most closely kept nuclear secrets onto unsecured computers and copying them onto computer tapes, some of which have since disappeared.

While the indictment accused him of acting "with intent to secure an advantage to a foreign nation," it did not identify that nation, and he was not charged with espionage. Still, the government argued that his fleeing would endanger national security, and on Dec. 13 a federal magistrate granted the prosecution's motion that he be denied bail. The hearing today, before Judge James A. Parker, concerned the defense's appeal of that decision.

One government witness was Richard Krajcik, a leader of the Los Alamos laboratory's X division, which designs nuclear weapons and was Dr. Lee's employer.

Dr. Krajcik testified that there was no reason why Dr. Lee's job would have required him to create all the files of classified information that he downloaded from the secure computers. The witness also said that taken together, those files dealt with "the crown jewel" of the American nuclear arsenal, providing what was effectively a blueprint for designing advanced nuclear weapons.

But testimony that can sound extremely damning under prosecution questioning often seems far less so once the defense gets its chance, and Dr. Lee's lawyers have not yet had the opportunity to cross-examine Dr. Krajcik.

An earlier witness today was the government computer expert, Cheryl Lee Wampler, who said the computer system onto which Dr. Lee placed top-secret files could be reached by outsiders using the Internet. In fact, Ms. Wampler said, shortly after Dr. Lee had improperly downloaded some secret files to his unsecured computer system, someone logged on to that system from the University of California at Los Angeles.

Ms. Wampler acknowledged, though, that whoever those users were, there was no evidence that they had gained access to the secret files themselves. And one of Dr. Lee's lawyers, Mark Holscher, jumped up and told the judge that the Federal Bureau of Investigation had confirmed that those users were in fact Dr. Lee's children, who studied at U.C.L.A. To that, a government prosecutor, Paula Burnett, replied that it was "one optional theory."

The questioning of Ms. Wampler had the ring of a cold-war thriller at times, with discussions of X divisions, Z passwords and Q clearances.

The witness made clear that the government had pieced together Dr. Lee's actions by comparing a ledger he kept by hand with various computer records at the laboratory.

She said Dr. Lee had pulled together a trove of nuclear data and created 19 files, which he moved to the unsecure computers in 1993 and 1994 through a laborious process.

For as long as six years, most of those files were on an open computer, where they appeared in various logs of computer activity but were not discovered by security experts until Dr. Lee had come under suspicion and his secure work computers had been examined.

Dr. Lee's lawyers showed that he had not even changed the top-secret names of the files and that as a result, any knowledgeable person seeing them would have known immediately what they were.

In the cross-examination of Ms. Wampler, the defense also tried to show that Dr. Lee had taken the steps he did because they were the only means available to create backups of the files.

Through prosecution and defense questioning alike, the 60-year-old Dr. Lee, wearing a dark blue suit, appeared comfortable. Frequently he smiled and waved to his supporters in the courtroom.

The hearing adjourned this evening and is to resume on Tuesday.

---

Scientist Lee's Boss Testifies

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS New York Times December 28, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/national/china-nuke.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991228/aponline223244_000.htm

Related Article

Two Sides Clash Over Bail for Indicted Atom Scientist (Dec. 28, 1999)
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/late/28nuke.html

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. -- A fired Los Alamos scientist admitted failing an FBI lie-detector test and said he "may have accidentally" passed information to a foreign country, his former supervisor testified today.

The testimony came on the second day of a hearing on Wen Ho Lee's request that a federal judge reconsider whether Lee should remain behind bars without bail until trial. U.S. District Judge James Parker was expected to decide whether to grant bail later in the week.

Richard Krajcik, deputy director of Los Alamos National Laboratory's nuclear weapons division, testified that Lee visited him in his office after taking the FBI polygraph test, which was administered before Lee was fired March 8.

"He indicated that he did not intentionally pass on information to a foreign country," Krajcik said. "He said he may have accidentally passed on information to a foreign country."

Krajcik said the polygraph questioning involved the W-88, the United States' smallest and most sophisticated nuclear warhead. Krajcik didn't give the date of the polygraph test and didn't say whether Lee had identified which country got the information.

He said the two questions Lee failed were whether he had passed information to a foreign country and whether he had passed classified codes to a foreign country.

In addition to the meeting with Lee in his office, Krajcik said he was present when Lee was interviewed by the FBI on March 5 and that he appeared "deceptive and evasive."

"My reaction was that Mr. Lee was not being candid and truthful in his response to the questions," Krajcik said.

On Monday, Cheryl L. Wampler, a computer security expert for Los Alamos,

testified that Lee transmitted unclassified information to foreign countries that revealed two lab computer logins and passwords that could be viewed by any hacker on the Internet.

Lee, 60, is charged with 59 counts under the Atomic Energy and Espionage Acts. If convicted, he could be sentenced to life in prison. The charges allege transfer of classified material from secure to unsecure computers and to computer tapes, seven of which remain missing. The defense contends the tapes were destroyed.

The indictment does not accuse Lee of passing classified information to any foreign government.

A magistrate denied bond two weeks ago for Taiwanese-born Lee, a naturalized U.S. citizen, who has pleaded innocent. It could be up to a year before Lee's trial begins.

Outside the federal courthouse Monday, supporters rallied with signs reading "Free Wen Ho Lee" and "Justice for All." They say the government is trying to make him a scapegoat for the government's security shortcomings.

---

U.S. Argues Against Bail for Physicist
Prosecutors Say Lee Cannot Account for 7 Computer Tapes

By Vernon Loeb Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, December 28, 1999; Page A04
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-12/28/046l-122899-idx.html

ALBUQUERQUE, Dec. 27-Calling Wen Ho Lee an "unprecedented" security risk to the United States, government prosecutors asserted today in U.S. District Court here that the former physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory cannot account for top-secret nuclear weapons design information downloaded from the lab's computers and should remain in jail until his trial begins.

Lee's attorneys have asked Judge James A. Parker to revoke a magistrate's Dec. 13 denial of bail, arguing that an exhaustive FBI investigation has failed to turn up any evidence that the 59-year-old scientist revealed--or intended to reveal--any of the classified information he downloaded to any unauthorized parties.

But U.S. Attorney John J. Kelly wants Lee to remain in jail pending trial for what could be a year or more, arguing that his inability to account for seven portable computer tapes containing enough information to build a thermonuclear weapon, coupled with a pattern of deception at Los Alamos, shows intent to damage the nation's security.

"When I first realized what was downloaded by Dr. Lee, I realized I was looking at a chilling collection of codes and files," Richard Krajcik, deputy director of Los Alamos's secret X Division, told a packed courtroom. "It really represents a capacity someone could use to design and analyze [U.S. nuclear] weapons."

Lee was indicted Dec. 10 on 59 felony counts of mishandling classified information downloaded in 1993, 1994 and 1997 from Los Alamos's secure computer system. He is accused of transferring nearly all of the files to 10 computer tapes. The government says seven of the tapes cannot be accounted for; Lee's attorneys say the seven tapes have all been destroyed, although they have not provided any evidence to support that claim.

Thirty-nine of the 59 felony counts involve violations of secrecy provisions in the Atomic Energy Act and carry maximum sentences of life in prison. But to make those charges stick, the government must prove that Lee willfully intended to damage national security.

Lee was fired from his post in the lab's X Division in March for allegedly tampering with classified documents and failing to report foreign contacts that occurred in the mid-1980s during trips he made to China. At the time of his firing, Lee was identified by federal authorities as their prime suspect in a Chinese espionage investigation centering on evidence that China may have stolen design information related to the W-88 warhead, America's most sophisticated thermonuclear weapon.

But federal authorities have since acknowledged that they do not now have any evidence showing Lee spied for China or any other foreign government. Kelly, in fact, has noted in court papers filed here that the charges brought against Lee for mishandling classified information are unrelated to the earlier espionage probe, which has since been widened to include numerous other nuclear weapons facilities. Lee's downloading of classified material was not discovered by investigators until late last March, weeks after he was fired and publicly identified as an espionage suspect.

Lee's supporters--several dozen of whom gathered here today outside the courtroom in a show of support for the imprisoned scientist--say the cases are linked. The government never would have even searched Lee's computer and discovered the downloaded information if federal officials hadn't improperly singled him out as a potential spy, at least partly on the basis of his ethnicity as a Chinese American, they say.

Like the broader case itself, the bail hearing that began today is expected to center on the question of whether Lee intended to harm the nation in downloading secret data, a key consideration in whether he can be allowed out of jail on bail without further threatening the nation.

Krajcik called the data downloaded by Lee "the crown jewels" of America's nuclear weapons program and said Lee's "private collection" of weapons codes existed nowhere else in the country except Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore national laboratories.

Krajcik's testimony came after that of Cheryl Wampler, a Los Alamos computer official who testified for more than two hours about Lee's methodical downloading of data from classified to unclassified laboratory networks and then onto unsecured portable computer tapes.

Wampler testified that Lee changed the coding on every file he downloaded from classified to unclassified, even though lab security rules strictly prohibit any secret material from being removed from the secure system. Once the highly sensitive nuclear weapons codes--which simulate nuclear explosions and can be used to reverse-engineer U.S. warheads--had been improperly downloaded, Lee copied them onto tapes using a machine in an unsecure section of the laboratory.

That machine, located in Los Alamos's T Division, "was imminently available to not very sophisticated hackers from the Internet" in addition to as many as 10 unclassified users working in that section of the lab, Wampler testified. She noted, in response to a question from Judge Parker, that there is no evidence any hacker or unauthorized users ever accessed Lee's surreptitiously downloaded files.

During cross-examination, one of Lee's attorneys, John Cline, repeatedly attempted to show that Lee did not take many other steps in downloading the data that would have covered his tracks.

Cline pointed out that, as he moved the files from the classified system, Lee retained file names that showed that the data included nuclear weapons codes. He also said that his client was fully aware that every move he was making on the computer network was being recorded and that his chosen password--WHL--would show up in security logs in both the classified and unclassified systems.

And once Lee had copied the downloaded files onto tapes, wouldn't it have made sense for him to delete the files from his unsecure computer, instead of leaving them there for government investigators to find six years later? Cline asked.

"It would have made sense, yes," Wampler said.

---

Whistle-Blower Scientist Claims Nuclear Lab Is Retaliating Against Him

San Francisco Chronicle Tuesday, December 28, 1999 Bernadette Tansey
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/12/28/MN4303.DTL

Few people in the Bay Area have a stronger interest in the new film ``The Insider'' than David Lappa, whose lawyer compares him to the tobacco industry whistle- blower portrayed in the movie.

But Lappa, a veteran nuclear engineer at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said he needs to wait for the film to come out on video so he doesn't have to watch it in a roomful of strangers.

``I think it might be too emotional for me,'' Lappa said.

Lappa and former tobacco industry insider Jeffrey Wigand made a similar choice: They went outside the institutions where they had built their careers to reveal alleged wrongdoing. Both claim they paid a heavy price through retaliation by their former bosses. Lappa has a whistle-blower suit pending against the University of California, which manages the Livermore lab for the U.S. Department of Energy.

But Lappa sees one big difference between himself and Wigand.

``I'm fighting the nuclear weapons complex of the most powerful country on Earth,'' Lappa said.

Just two years ago, Lappa felt he had everything he had ever wished for back in the 1970s, when he was a promising science student at the University of Michigan. At Livermore, his first and only workplace since graduation, he was attached to a prestigious institution. He lived with his wife and children in a four-bedroom home in Livermore they had landscaped and remodeled themselves. His performance ratings at the lab were good, and he was proud of his work.

Lappa thought little of it when his supervisor told him he might be asked to join a committee investigating errors in plutonium handling at a lab unit. On July 21, 1997, he got the invitation through a voice mail message 20 minutes before the committee meetings were to start.

Lappa jumped on one of the free lab bicycles and pedaled off to the assignment that would change his life forever.

--

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is a square-mile complex of undistinguished buildings southeast of Livermore that would look very much like a state university campus if not for its fences and guarded gates. It is one of three Energy Department labs that handle nuclear weapons research.

Unlike nuclear power plants and other commercial users of radioactive materials, which are overseen by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Energy Department's sensitive national security projects are monitored for safety and environmental compliance by the department itself.

The department's 50-year record of self-regulation has come under increasing scrutiny in recent years, with some lawmakers and federal agencies calling for an outside body to ensure the protection of workers and the environment. Critics say the department has left a legacy of tons of radioactive debris and other hazards, some of it dating back to World War

II.

In the summer of 1997, in a complex at the Livermore lab known as the Superblock, workers were preparing wafers of plutonium to ship to Nevada for underground testing of weapons components. But the work came to a stop when lab officials discovered some employees violating safety rules by storing too much of the highly reactive plutonium in an enclosed work area called a glove box.

In a worst-case scenario, such storage mistakes can cause radioactive substances to ``go critical,'' setting off a nuclear chain reaction that can cause an explosion and a sudden surge of potentially lethal radiation.

Lappa's lawyers have compared the Livermore errors to the fatal September 30 nuclear accident in Tokaimura, Japan, where a government panel found that workers ignored safety rules to speed up production of nuclear reactor fuel. Livermore officials maintain the mistakes at the plutonium facility never created the danger of an incident like Tokaimura.

Lappa said statements by workers during the investigation of the Livermore incident led him to believe the safety violations were intentional, and he thought the investigation should explore why. He assumed that conclusion would be part of the committee's report. But when he found no mention of possible deliberate violations in the report, he refused to sign it.

Lappa claims the committee head whited out his signature line to conceal his dissent and delivered a negative performance report to Lappa's supervisor in the engineering division. Offers were withdrawn for future job assignments within the lab, and his raise package was reduced, Lappa claimed in the retaliation suit he filed against the university last year.

Lappa alerted higher ranking Energy Department authorities and anonymously tipped the Office of the Inspector General.

After that, Lappa maintains, supervisors told him he was ``unemployable'' at the lab. Former colleagues shunned him.

``He went from hero to zero in a few months,'' said Thomas Carpenter of the Government Accountability Project, a whistle-blower advocacy group assisting in Lappa's suit.

-- Lappa's claim that the university retaliated against him for blowing the whistle was sustained in July 1998 by a U.S. Department of Labor investigator. The university was ordered to pay him $32,500 for counseling and legal fees, delete unfavorable comments in his personnel file, give him a month's paid leave to recuperate from stress and offer him job assignments matching his skills.

The university did not appeal, and Lawrence Livermore spokeswoman Susan Houghton said the lab has complied with all the conditions.

But in a civil suit filed against the university last year, Lappa, 44, claims he is still being treated like a pariah. He says he may give up and try to rebuild his career outside the lab.

Houghton said she could not discuss Lappa's case in detail, but she said, ``Perceptions may not be realities.''

Lappa hoped the Energy Department would support his suit as part of an effort to improve its reputation for safety enforcement. He points to the department's declared policy of ``zero tolerance'' for retaliation by any of its contractors against whistle-blowers who raise safety concerns.

But the department's resistance to some of Lappa's requests for documents and witness testimony bolsters the perception that whistle- blowers will be made outcasts by both the department and its contractors, Carpenter said.

``They hurt their safety mission by siding in a case like this,'' Carpenter said.

An attorney for the Energy Department said Lappa and his supporters are misinterpreting reasonable actions on the part of the department.

``Certainly we are not circling the wagons with UC to retaliate against a whistle-blower,'' said Richard Vergas, who represents the department in the civil suit. ``If they retaliated against him we're on his side.''

-- Whether Lappa is right or wrong, his case illustrates weaknesses that remain in the department's safety enforcement program despite reforms by the Clinton administration, said Robert Alvarez, a former senior adviser to Energy Secretary Bill Richardson.

Alvarez said inherent conflicts of interest arise from the department's double objectives -- to set performance goals for its projects while ensuring that contractors cut no corners on safety.

The department has historically shielded its contractors from legal or financial responsibility for their mistakes, Alvarez said. Although the department imposes fines for safety violations, it waives the fines for nonprofit contractors such as the University of California. If not for that provision, the university would have paid $153,000 in fines for violations the department eventually found in its own investigation of the plutonium handling errors at Livermore.

The Energy Department used to cover the costs of lawsuits against contractors, even paying the legal fees and damages awarded in successful claims by whistle-blowers. But that rule has changed somewhat -- the department will cover the university's legal fees in the Lappa lawsuit unless he wins, in which case the university would have to pay its lawyers and any judgment Lappa receives.

The Clinton administration also created the Labor Department process Lappa used to seek redress from the university.

But recent actions by Congress have raised doubts that Energy Department whistle-blowers will be better protected in the future.

A move to place the Energy Department under outside regulation drew united support last summer from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the General Accounting Office and the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration. But the department resisted, and Congress took no action.

In October, Congress created a new Energy Department internal agency to oversee security measures in the wake of reports that China had stolen U.S. nuclear secrets. The Clinton administration opposed formation of the semi-autonomous National Nuclear Security Administration, warning it could jeopardize health and safety regulations by creating a new layer of secrecy over all matters involving Energy Department nuclear defense programs.

Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said he plans to ask Congress next session to amend the ``very badly drafted legislation'' establishing the National Nuclear Security Administration.

``I want to make sure that worker safety and environmental protection are taken care of,'' Richardson said.

-----------

Wants more info about DOE

12-28-99 Oak Ridger
http://www.oakridger.com/

To The Oak Ridger:

I commend you for making the public more aware of the harm done to workers, the public, and the environment by DOE operations here.

We need more of that reporting. Further, we need reporting on other ways that the Department of Energy and its contractors and subcontractors are harming us, such as taking away our work and giving it to less qualified and/or non-grandfathered employees, forcing us to work for undesirable subcontractors or be considered a "voluntary quit," and retaliating against us for voicing concerns.

The following is the first of several lists of such issues I want you to address:

(1) At the time of the transition of the Environmental Management and Enrichment Facilities (EMEF) contract from Lockheed Martin Energy Systems (LMES) to Bechtel Jacobs, what was DOE's rationale for letting LMES pull employees from EMEF who had worked nearly their entire careers for EMEF and retain them, while at the same time "dumping" employees on EMEF who had been performing little or no EMEF work prior to the transition?

(2) When the transition of employees from LMES to Bechtel Jacobs first began to be discussed, transitioning employees were told they would receive an "equivalent balance of pay and benefits" with the new company, which meant if our benefits went down, our pay would go up, or vice versa.

Later, we were told we would receive only "substantially equivalent pay and benefits," terminology that had not been not defined.

Still later, after we pointed out that our benefits had decreased while our pay remained the same, we were told that we had been promised only "substantially equivalent pay and benefits for the employee population in the aggregate."

(3) When LMES announced to EMEF employees that LMES would not bid on the EMEF contract, we were told that only the top (approximately 12) EMEF managers would be replaced.

Instead, nearly all EMEF managers were replaced by Bechtel Jacobs, which brought in 150 of its own employees.

I would like to know what percentage of managers or supervisors currently working for Bechtel Jacobs are grandfathered employees.

(4) What are the theories about why the attrition rate for Bechtel Jacobs is twice as high as they expected it to be, as stated by their Workforce Transition manager in a recent article in The Oak Ridger?

(5) If Bechtel Jacobs is transitioning 90 percent of the work to subcontractors, why is nearly half (approximately 700) of the original workforce (approximately 1,500) being retained as core employees?

Are we to believe that half of the total workforce is needed to perform only the 10 percent of work that remains?

(6) What percentage of the number identified for workforce transition to subcontractors was actually hired by the subcontractors?

(7) Of the subcontractor jobs that were not filled with employees identified for workforce transition, what percentage was filled with grandfathered employees (as opposed to subcontractor employees or "outside" hires)?

(8) What is the status of the DOE Inspector General investigation in which it was concluded that before DOE paid Bechtel Jacobs its award fee, DOE should require more evidence of jobs and payroll creation than letters from the Bechtel Jacobs jobs and payroll creation companies?

(9) How many environmental management cleanup milestones were missed last year, and which ones?

(10) Of approximately 1,500 EMEF employees on the payroll at the time of the transition, what is the total number who have left the payroll for whatever reason?

If a large number of experienced, qualified employees have left the payroll, how can DOE reassure the public that the environmental management work can be done with quality, cost efficiency, and safety?

Pamela Gillis Watson
134 Jarrett Lane

--------

Fermilab Struggles to Keep Its Edge

By MALCOLM W. BROWNE New York Times December 28, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/library/national/science/122899sci-matter-fermilab.html

BATAVIA, Ill. -- Sprawling across 6,800 acres of Illinois prairie, the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory has for three decades played a pivotal role in the quest to understand the ultimate nature of matter.

Fermilab still houses the most powerful particle accelerator in the world, four miles around and capable of accelerating protons and antiprotons to energies of a trillion volts and then smashing them together, but the laboratory is showing signs of age. The cutting edge of high-energy physics is moving to Europe, and Fermilab's next decade could prove to be the laboratory's last hurrah.

Chunks of concrete have fallen from the walls of Fermilab's 15-story administration building into the atrium it encloses, and pipes have burst, treating workers to unwelcome showers. The High Rise, as the building is known, was designed for a 20-year lifetime but it is now more than 30 years old, and fixing the structure and its plumbing will take two years and cost $20 million.

The scientific reservation, where Fermilab's naturalists recreated a pre-Columbian habitat for wild prairie plants and established a sanctuary for prairie bison and other animals, is now hedged in by the sprawling suburbs of Chicago. Industrial buildings and housing developments have sprung up all around the laboratory site, and Fermilab's new director, Dr. Michael Witherell, had to act fast to block a major highway that would have run right through the site.

When Dr. Robert R. Wilson became Fermilab's founding director in 1967, one of his objectives was to create the most beautiful laboratory he could, and his artistic touches still impress visitors.

The High Rise itself was modeled after the Beauvais Cathedral in France, and like the cathedral, its double towers dominated the surrounding countryside.

Dr. Wilson insisted that even the most mundane laboratory accessories -- large capacitor banks, transformers and power lines -- should be shaped as abstract sculptures and placed to best artistic effect. Typical of his artistic initiatives is one of the larger sculptures adorning the site, a three-legged representation of the concept of broken symmetry, which is a mysterious characteristic of certain particle transformations. Broken symmetry is thought to explain why more matter than antimatter was created by the Big Bang, thereby leaving a surplus of matter sufficient to create the universe.

Dr. Wilson and his successor, Dr. Leon M. Lederman, co-winner of the 1988 Nobel Prize in Physics, realized that top scientists from Europe and elsewhere needed special intellectual inducements to work in the rural setting of Fermilab, and these two directors started a series of art shows, concerts, plays and lectures intended to attract smart, educated people.

All these attractions are still in place, but far more important to Fermilab's staff and users is the neck-and-neck scientific race the laboratory is running against CERN, the European Laboratory for Particle Physics.

In the 21st century the focus of high-energy particle physics is expected to shift to Europe's CERN laboratory near Geneva, where a coalition of nations, including the United States, is building the Large Hadron Collider, a machine that will seize the title as the world's most powerful particle accelerator, capable of accelerating a proton to an energy of seven trillion electronvolts: seven times the energy imparted by Fermilab's Tevatron.

Before the Large Hadron Collider is completed, however, Fermilab still has a chance to cop two more great physics prizes: the detection of a Higgs field, a universal field believed to endow all particles with mass, and one or more supersymmetric particles, which are hypothetical entities that might allow physicists to integrate the force of gravity with the other three forces of nature.

In 1985, Fermilab completed a monster accelerator called the Tevatron, in which opposing beams of protons and antiprotons are brought into collision at a combined energy of nearly two trillion electronvolts.

The most conspicuous achievement of the Tevatron in its 14 years of operation was the discovery in 1995 of the "top quark," which filled in the last blank space for six quarks allotted by a table of fundamental particles known as the Standard Model. (The other quarks are named "up," "down," "charm," "strange," and "bottom" or "beauty." Only the "up" and "down" quarks, which are components of protons and neutrons, have occurred in nature since the Big Bang.)

Using the mighty Tevatron and its two huge detectors, scientists probed the puzzling nature of the ultraheavy top quark, shed light on particle symmetry violations and elucidated other mysteries of physics. But the Tevatron failed to detect either the Higgs field (as well as its associated particle, the Higgs boson) or a supersymmetric particle (known as sparticle).

The quest for supersymmetric particles has become one of the main aims of high-energy physics.

Theories of supersymmetry assume that for every known particle and antiparticle there is a corresponding supersymmetric particle. If this were to prove true, physicists could take a giant step toward the long sought "theory of everything," which would incorporate quantum gravity with the other three forces of nature, all of which can be expressed in quantum-mechanical terms: the electromagnetic force and the strong and weak nuclear forces. A quantum-mechanical version of the theory of gravity has yet to be devised.

To seek major physics breakthroughs, physicists at Fermilab could not count on increasing the energy of the Tevatron by a large amount. Instead, they greatly increased the "luminosity" of the machine -- the numbers of protons and antiprotons packed into opposing beams. The higher concentration of colliding particles would make collision events much more frequent, increasing the chances of detecting events revealing the Higgs field, supersymmetry or other new phenomena.

To do this, Fermilab has built a new ring-shaped accelerator two miles in circumference called a "main injector." Built over seven years at a cost of $260 million, the main injector was recently completed and is functioning independently of the Tevatron. The Tevatron itself cost about $259 million.

Starting in the spring of 2001, the main injector will begin feeding torrents of protons and antiprotons into the giant Tevatron ring, and great discoveries will quickly ensue, physicists hope.

The laboratory team was so successful in designing and building the main injector that for no extra cost they added a new storage ring within the tunnel, a ring for recycling antiprotons.

A key part of this Tevatron's capability was the development of a factory for making antiprotons by bombarding a nickel target with protons. (The leader of the antiproton program was Dr. John Peoples Jr., who succeeded Dr. Lederman as Fermilab's director.) A new step incorporated in the latest Tevatron upgrade will be a system for conserving antiprotons.

Antiprotons are generally wasted after use in colliding beams; when they are allowed to come into contact with any ordinary matter, they are instantly annihilated, transformed into high-energy gamma rays. By saving antiprotons in the new storage ring for reuse, Fermilab will also save money; the cost of a single discarded batch of antiprotons has been estimated at $63,000, and many batches are used in an experimental run.

To improve the prospects for important discoveries still further, Fermilab's scientific users are completely rebuilding the two gigantic detectors that serve the accelerator. Each of these detectors surrounds a spot where proton and antiproton beams are brought into collision. The two detectors, known as Collider Detector Fermilab and D-Zero, use a variety of detection systems to identify and measure the showers of particles and debris created by collisions, all of them far more sensitive than the systems used to achieve previous discoveries, including the finding of the top quark.

The new main injector will also be used to send a beam of neutrinos through the earth 453 miles to a detector in an iron mine in Soudan, Minn. Physicists will look for transformations of neutrinos from one type to another as they speed through the earth.

"So Fermilab's useful life is far from over," Dr. Witherell said. "We just need some cooperation by nature and a little luck."

----------- us nuc waste

Scientists engineer bacteria to be a 'superbug'

By JOSEPH B. VERRENGIA Nando Media December 28, 1999 5:19 p.m. EST
http://www2.nando.net/noframes/story/0,2107,500147575-500178276-500713155-0,00.html
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/science/DailyNews/superbug991228.html
http://news.excite.com/news/ap/991228/21/superbugs
http://www.msnbc.com/news/351313.asp?cp1=1
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991228/aponline170233_000.htm

(December 28, 1999 5:19 p.m. EST http://www.nandotimes.com) - The bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans already holds the title as the world's toughest organism - it can survive an atomic blast. Now scientists have bioengineered it into a "superbug" that can digest the toxic leftovers of the nuclear age.

Government geneticists said they inserted genes from another form of bacteria into Deinoccoccus, producing a superbug that transforms toxic mercury compounds commonly found at nuclear weapons production sites into less harmful forms.

The scientists said the development shows how bacteria can be customized to attack the heavy metals, radioactive wastes and other substances that pollute the soil and groundwater at nuclear sites.

The superbug works in laboratory experiments but has not been tested in the field. Details of the research were published in the January issue of the scientific journal Nature Biotechnology.

The research was led by Michael J. Daley of the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences in Bethesda, Md.

According to a federal study, wea pons waste was buried at 3,000 sites nationwide between 1945 and 1986. One-third of the sites include radioactive materials. Many of the sites were tanks and concrete-lined pits, which now are disintegrating and leaking. Cleanup estimates by the Energy Department run as high as $300 billion.

Bioremediation - a cleanup method using specialized microorganisms - may be a cheaper alternative. But conventional bacteria that gobble up solvents, metals and other forms of contamination are killed by radiation from plutonium and uranium.

Daley's lab took Deinococcus and added genes from a strain of E. coli bacteria that were resistant to particularly toxic forms of mercury.

They reported that the superbug strains proliferated when exposed to radioactive waste mixtures commonly found at weapons sites. The superbug does not neutralize radioactivity in metals.

The pink-colored bacterium smells like rotten cabbage. It was discovered in canned meat in 1956.

It is believed to be 2 billion years old, making it one of Earth's earliest life forms. Scientists believe it evolved when Earth was bombarded with more radiation than today.

It can survive 1.5 million rads of gamma radiation, or about 3,000 times the lethal dose for humans. It also can survive high doses of ultraviolet radiation and long periods of dehydration.

Previous studies have demonstrated that its radiation resistance probably involves thousands of genes. Even when hundreds of portions of DNA are damaged by radiation, the microorganism can usually repair itself in a matter of hours, using redundant genetic codes to keep functioning in the meantime.

----------- y2k

On the Year 2000 Front, Humans Are the Big Wild Cards

New York Times December 28, 1999 By BARNABY J. FEDER
http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/12/biztech/articles/28year.html

With four days until the year 2000, government officials, company managers and computer experts are waiting anxiously to see if the public will remain calm.

It is not that everyone is sure the computers and the machinery in which they are often embedded will perform flawlessly as they roll past midnight and encounter Year 2000 dates -- far from it. Repair work has lagged behind in many countries and some domestic sectors, like small businesses. And even the most stringent programs will inevitably have some overlooked flaws.

Still, the prevailing view is that the technical glitches are likely to have limited economic and social impact. Bigger disruptions could come, the experts say, from unwarranted stockpiling, withdrawals of large sums from banks, or other sudden efforts by millions of people to insulate themselves from possible technical failures.

"The biggest remaining variable is public attitude," said Harris N. Miller, president of the Information Technology Association of America. (For the moment that attitude is more confident than ever: The Associated Press's latest poll found that 92 percent of Americans expect minor problems at worst.) "One incident can change it quickly," he added, "but if we stay on this track, the whole thing could end up as a major victory for common sense."

Such thinking is disputed by Year 2000 readiness advocates who contend that it is reckless for individuals not to prepare for major disruptions just as the government and major companies have done. But whatever happens, there is wide agreement with John A. Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, that Y2K, as the computer problem is known, has become "the greatest management challenge of the past 50 years."

Had nothing been done, the world's financial systems would already be sagging from errors in software that relies on future dates -- like programs tracking debt payments -- with an almost certain collapse early next year. Manufacturing, food distribution, power and phone networks and most other basic services would have begun slowing within weeks if not minutes after midnight Dec. 31.

Computer users not hit directly would nonetheless have been quickly crippled by breakdowns among suppliers or key customers, experts say.

To prevent such a fate, tens of millions of people have been involved in preparations ranging from fixing computer code to developing contingency plans to deal with any remaining glitches. More than $250 billion has been spent in the effort, mostly in the last three years, according to several estimates.

The Year 2000 problem came as no surprise to programmers. It stems from a decades-old space-saving tactic of using just two digits to represent the year. Many programmers recognized that 00 would be ambiguous -- some computers would interpret it as 1900 and others not recognize it as a valid date -- but they mistakenly assumed that the two-digit programming practice would die out long before the new century and the software using it would be retired.

It was not until the late 1990's that most senior managers finally recognized how deep the problem ran. Now, even computer novices realize that Year 2000 flaws can crash their systems or pump vast amounts of faulty data into files, billings or other documents before they are recognized.

It has turned out that faulty computers in machinery like phone switches, industrial robots and video recorders are rarer and usually more trivial than many experts originally feared. In fact, officials in the airline and electric industries said recently that their repairs turned up no embedded computers that could have caused major failures.

Still, because there are billions of embedded processors, even a small percentage of date-sensitive units adds up to millions of devices that could cause trouble if incorrectly handled. Chrysler has identified 6,000 robots, controllers and other electronic devices in 50 plants that it will reset on Jan. 3 before it restarts its production lines. No one knows how many have been overlooked or inadequately tested.

For all the work that has been done, tough challenges are still ahead.

While some embedded flaws will remain invisible until machines are turned off or on for the first time in the Year 2000, which could be months from now, the worst of that threat will be over quickly in January. Most managers are more worried about office systems and software. The information technology that runs the world's offices, banks and government agencies could continue to have problems for months as different programs, like payrolls or tax accounting packages, deal with Year 2000 dates for the first time.

Major computer users may have hundreds of millions of lines of code in their software, and research shows that even the programs that have ostensibly been fixed and tested still have flaws, some serious. Managers in this country are confident that they have found enough of the major problems to be able to fix new ones that come to light before they do much damage.

One hopeful sign is that flaws have, so far, been showing up at slightly lower rates than analysts had projected. For example, the Gartner Group, a technology consulting firm in Stamford, Conn., expected Year 2000 problems to create 75 percent more breakdowns than normal this month but its latest projections suggest that the increase will be 65 percent. But Gartner is sticking by projections that programmers will be twice as burdened as normal thanks to Year 2000 flaws for the first two months of next year.

"The issue will be, you've got a boat, you've got a hole in it, how fast can you bail?" said James Woodward, the Dallas-based head of North American Year 2000 services for Cap Gemini, Europe's largest computer services company.

As Dec. 31 approaches, concerns about computer viruses and intruders are also on the rise. Managers fear that the vast amount of work on systems may have left them more open to security breaches. In addition, publicity about Year 2000 "acts as a draw for those who want to make a statement," said Richard Landes, director of the Center for Millennial Studies at Boston University.

A growing number of computer users are erecting defenses like those of the Regional Medical Center in Orangeburg, S.C., which is shutting off computer access from its system to the Internet on Dec. 31; executives in its command center that want to track information on the World Wide Web will use a separate personal computer installed for the rollover.

Security threats aside, many companies are preparing to execute elaborate precautions affecting employees, suppliers and customers alike.

Many large chemical plants and oil pipelines are shutting down for the transition. Major freight railroads and Amtrak are suspending service on New Year's Eve to go through one last round of equipment and signal checks after midnight.

Perhaps most of all, government and company officials will be struggling to separate fact from rumor, and a vast number of public and private information networks are being pieced together for the occasion. A recent test of the Government's Y2K Information Coordination Center included telecommunications links to counterparts in 80 countries and 50 states and many numerous emergency management officials.

"We are going to be asking what is happening with everything all over the world," Mr. Koskinen said. "Our major requirement is to put out accurate information, but we have to be timely, too. There has never been anything like this in all of history."

Reliable information is crucial for contingency planners, because the computers and human actors they have been worrying most about are those beyond their control.

International businesses say information is particularly hard to come by overseas. All assessments describe Russia as the largest nation far behind in preparations. China by virtue of its size and heavy reliance on pirated software is seen as a higher than average risk. Japan started late but seems to have largely caught up, at least among its larger companies.

Nigeria is one of several African countries considered especially risky; the national Year 2000 group was given $1 million of the $200 million it said it needed. But oil companies have said they expect exports as usual from there, the Persian Gulf and Venezuela.

Of course, many of the countries least prepared for the computer problem are those most accustomed to coping with disruptions. Only a handful of nations with major Year 2000 problems are likely to suffer substantial economic consequences, according to projections by the International Data Corporation, a consulting firm based in Framingham, Mass. Even then, I.D.C. says, worldwide losses will be less than $24 billion.

No one thinks Americans will stay relaxed if major disruptions unexpectedly develop. Indeed, for most of this year, many of the biggest debates have swirled around how to encourage some preparations without inciting unusual behavior or panic.

Authorities have been warning homeowners against storing gasoline or taking large amounts of money out of the bank. The Gartner Group predicts lines and possible spot shortages of gasoline the last two days of this month as Americans top off the tanks in their cars.

"It's going to get hairy for a couple of days," said Lou Marcoccio, Year 2000 research director at the Gartner Group.

The actual arrival of the Year 2000 might seem like a letdown, experts say. But most experts agree that it will take several quiet weeks to be confident that the first global technology challenge has been met successfully.

Even if it all unfolds as smoothly as the optimists project, a potentially titanic legal battle over who pays is shaping up. Xerox, Nike and Unisys are among the eight companies that have already sued for reimbursement from their insurers for spending hundreds of millions of dollars on Year 2000 repairs.

They cite language in business contracts dating from the 19th century, when insurers would pay ship owners for money spent trying to prevent a ship from sinking. The insurers argue they owe nothing because Year 2000 losses were completely foreseeable, and Congress acted last summer to limit their exposure.

---

Tighter security at Times Square

By ASSOCIATED PRESS Washington Times December 28, 1999
http://208.246.212.80/national/nation-19991228.htm

While publicly downplaying "terrorist hype," city officials have made Times Square the focus of an elaborate security plan for the year-2000 celebration.

NEW YORK - While publicly downplaying "terrorist hype," city officials have made Times Square the focus of an elaborate security plan that puts the nation's biggest metropolis on a virtual war footing for the year-2000 celebration.

The plan, code-named "Archangel," will turn an area of midtown Manhattan 24 blocks long and three blocks wide into a pedestrian-only zone.

Six police helicopters will hover overhead and 8,000 officers, some with bomb-sniffing dogs, will be on duty New Year's Eve in and around Times Square.

As many as 2 million revelers are expected in Times Square alone for a 25-hour celebration of lights, lasers and noisemakers.

Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Police Commissioner Howard Safir said they knew of no specific threats against the city, but the recent arrests of people suspected of extremist connections at U.S.-Canada border crossings in Washington and Vermont have heightened fears of terrorist acts timed to the new year.

"There are no guarantees, but we can take every precaution that's humanly possible," Mr. Safir said in the New York Times. "I think the public should come to Times Square, and I think they should not be deterred by all this terrorist hype that is going on."

He called last week's comments by former New York FBI chief James Kallstrom, who urged people to avoid Times Square, "caving in to terrorism." Mr. Kallstrom later insisted he wasn't referring to terrorism.

Nevertheless, many of the precautions outlined in "Archangel" -which was three years in the making - are designed specifically to thwart terrorists.

Manhole covers will be sealed, garbage cans removed and mailboxes locked to remove possible hiding places for explosives. Parking will be banned, beginning at midnight on Dec. 30, and private vehicles left there will be towed and impounded.

In the hours before the giant lighted ball descends to mark the start of the new year, twice the normal New Year's Eve complement of police officers will deploy in the Times Square area.

Officers will be watching from helicopters and rooftops while plainclothes officer teams with bomb-sniffing dogs mingle with the revelers and watch for suspicious people, Mr. Safir said. The exact definition of suspicious behavior was not divulged.

---

2000 warning in D.C. more dire than most

Washington Times December 28, 1999 By Ronald J. Hansen THE WASHINGTON TIMES
http://208.246.212.80/metro/news4-19991228.htm

The D.C. Emergency Management Agency's "Y2K Preparedness Guide" tells readers to "store a supply of seven to ten days worth of nonperishable foods per person." Meanwhile, most other jurisdictions have advised being prepared for only a few days.

District of Columbia officials are urging residents to prepare for more than a week without private and public services as the new year approaches, though most other jurisdictions have advised being prepared for only a few days.

The D.C. Emergency Management Agency's "Y2K Preparedness Guide" tells readers to "store a supply of seven to ten days worth of nonperishable foods per person."

It also warns residents to "set aside enough cash to meet living expenses for at least a one-month period" and "consider renting or purchasing a generator."

Peter G. LaPorte, the agency's acting director, said the guide is not intended to scare residents nor contradict the rosy picture Mayor Anthony A. Williams painted nine days ago.

"If you say you need to be prepared for three days, people blink at that. So you say be ready a little longer," Mr. LaPorte said. "The idea is to take those proper precautions."

Mr. Williams was unavailable for comment yesterday.

Local officials and businesses have said for several weeks that their computers are ready for the year 2000.

Nancy Moses, a spokeswoman for Pepco, which provides electricity for the city and most of nearby suburban Maryland, yesterday said the utility is ready and not asking customers to gird for anything unusual.

"We've spent $12 million over the past five years to be sure that the system is ready and will work," she said. "Our recommendation is for people to plan as if it's a three-day holiday weekend."

The city's guide advises residents to buy batteries for flashlights (rather than use candles), keep financial records in a secure place, contact neighbors and have a neighborhood emergency plan.

The city has run several preparation drills, including one yesterday for people working New Year's Eve.

"We don't expect to have to put the plans into action, but the plans are in place and they're tested in case we need them," Mr. Williams said Dec. 19. "I want to assure all our residents that if you call 911 or there's a problem at the power company or there's a snowstorm, you will get the service you need. We will keep the city running."

The city has spent more than $140 million preparing for the millennium and overhauling its computers to ensure they function properly Jan. 1. Many older systems were considered apt to malfunction because dated information used only the last two digits of the year and could not distinguish "00" as 2000 rather than 1900.

Of the city's 378 computer systems, all the "critical systems" are year-2000 compliant and 96 percent of all systems are ready, Mr. Williams said.

About 95 percent of the city's 15,000 personal computers also are ready; the rest are scheduled to be replaced in the final days before the new year.

Some local banks have placed signs in the windows of their branch offices and messages on ATM machines telling customers the banks are ready for the new year.

Mr. LaPorte said residents have welcomed the call for preparation, which is applicable to more than year-2000 problems.

"We know people have done some of the things," he said. "A lot of the people have said, 'I really don't have my essential documents in a secure place.' It's just good common sense."

Early weather forecasts for Friday indicate cool temperatures but no snow, Mr. LaPorte noted. He could not estimate how many people will attend festivities at the Mall and the city's two-day "Main Street Millennium" on Constitution Avenue.

"This is a difficult one to peg," he said of the expected turnout, comparing it to the annual "Taste of D.C." and Fourth of July celebrations.

City officials will monitor New Year's fallout in other cities around the world, Mr. LaPorte said. Additionally, representatives from Bell Atlantic, Pepco and other utilities and businesses will be in touch with city leaders throughout the first night of the new year.

"More than half the company will be working," Pepco's Ms. Moses said. "We would normally have a skeleton staff."

D.C. officials also will keep in close contact with Maryland, Virginia and federal authorities, Mr. LaPorte said.

---

New Committee to Address Privacy and Security Online
FBI Sued for Shutting Down Y2K Film

New York Times December 28, 1999 By JERI CLAUSING

The American Civil Liberties Union is suing federal officials for trying to suppress a short film that the FBI feared would spur a Y2K riot in Times Square. Agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the United States Attorney's Office in New York earlier this month had briefly shut down a Web site that played the film by a video artist, Mike Zieper of New Jersey, and Mark Wieger, a Michigan businessman who is the owner of the ISP on which the site was hosted. Zieper said the film, called "Military Takeover," pretended to show a race riot in Times Square.

The FBI and the United States Attorney's Office in New York said they got involved after receiving calls from people who thought the film was real. They said they were concerned that the film might prompt people to show up at Times Square on New Year's Eve with weapons. Last week, the ACLU filed suit United States District Court in New Jersey on Zieper's behalf, saying federal officials sidestepped the Constitution when they suppressed the film. The lawsuit seeks financial damages and a court declaration that the government acted unlawfully.

"As a result of the government's actions, an artist has experienced censorship and intimidation, and a businessman has been forced to choose between his rights and his livelihood," said Ann Beeson, a staff lawyer with the ACLU national office, which filed the case together with the ACLU of New Jersey.

"If these agents had been around when Orson Welles broadcast 'War of the Worlds,' perhaps they would have shut down the radio station that aired the program," she added, referring to the 1938 radio broadcast of H.G. Wells's sci-fi horror tale that some listeners believed to be a live news story.

The ACLU acknowledged that law enforcement officials have legitimate concerns about actual violent incidents in connection with the new millennium. But using government powers to suppress clearly protected works of fiction violates the First Amendment, it said.

"I think we can all agree that we want the FBI and other law enforcement agencies to take very seriously any threat to people's safety," said J.C. Salyer, a staff lawyer for the ACLU of New Jersey. "But censoring artists doesn't take us any further towards that goal."

The CAPITAL DISPATCH column is published weekly, on Tuesdays. Click here for a list of links to other columns in the series.

Related Sites

These sites are not part of The New York Times on the Web, and The Times has no control over their content or availability.

American Civil Liberties Union
http://www.aclu.org

Federal Bureau of Investigation
http://www.fbi.gov

Mike Zieper's Web site
http://www.crowdedtheater.com

Jeri Clausing at jeri@nytimes.com welcomes your comments and suggestions.

---

Y2K Glitches May Linger for Weeks

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 8:32 a.m. EST http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/a/AP-Y2K-Beyond-Jan-1.html
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2562878632-781

NEW YORK (AP) -- Y2K computer worries won't go away this weekend, even if nothing goes wrong. Glitches are likely weeks, even months, into the new year. And a few may linger until 2001 and beyond.

The Gartner Group, a technology consulting firm, estimates only 10 percent of all Y2K failures will occur during the first two weeks of January.

Yet an Associated Press poll taken earlier this month found that only 16 percent of respondents think Y2K problems will last more than two weeks. And the number who think the problems will be confined to less than a few days has increased from 22 percent to 36 percent.

Most Y2K planners are aware that Jan. 1 is no magic date, but they fear a quiet weekend might leave the public with a false sense of security.

``There is too much focus on New Year's weekend,'' said Bruce McConnell, director of the International Y2K Cooperation Center. ``If you think that the only time to worry about the Y2K bug is on Jan. 1, then you're underestimating the problem.''

Besides having new problems appear later in the year, glitches that strike on Jan. 1 might go unnoticed initially, even after employees return to work and restart computers. The full effects might not be felt until smaller glitches compound and disrupt business supply chains.

Several weeks must pass, McConnell said, ``to have a good idea just how big an event Y2K is.''

Ron Weikers, a Philadelphia attorney specializing in Y2K litigation, warned companies not to declare victory right away. Such statements, he said, could come back to haunt them.

Still, New Year's Day weekend will be a peak period for Y2K problems, and most major companies and government agencies will be watching their systems closely. John Koskinen, President Clinton's top Y2K adviser, will preside over a $50 million crisis center built for this weekend.

If there are any problems involving embedded chips that control power plants and other major equipment, Koskinen said, they would most likely strike around Jan. 1.

Beyond that, most glitches will probably be administrative, causing inconveniences such as incorrect billing -- but no catastrophe. And they'll be more manageable because they won't hit all at once.

The government has identified three crucial time periods:

-- Dec. 31, when the rest of the world celebrates the new year;

-- Jan. 1, when the new year arrives in the United States; and

-- Jan. 3, the first business day, when systems experience peak usage.

Koskinen's group will also look for trouble on Feb. 29, because some computers might not recognize 2000 as a leap year. Even Dec. 31, 2000, could be problematic because some computers might not be expecting 366 days next year.

The Y2K problem stems from a long-standing practice of using only two digits to represent a year in computer programs and embedded chips. Left uncorrected, ``00'' might appear as 1900, throwing off systems that control power, phones and billing.

In an AP telephone poll of 1,010 people, taken Dec. 15-19, the most frequently mentioned concern was the power supply, mentioned by a third, followed by banking and financial services, the transportation system, phone systems and food distribution. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Jan. 1 is not necessarily the first time a computer will encounter 2000, and some problems already have appeared.

A few years ago, some merchants began having trouble with credit cards expiring in 2000. In early October, some federal computers needed repair because Oct. 1 starts the federal fiscal year.

And in a twist from Maine, model 2000 cars were incorrectly marked horseless carriages -- the designation that the state uses for pre-1916 vintage vehicles.

Notices with 1900, not 2000, also have come from banks, courts and at least one college.

Some problems also occurred during Y2K testing, or as Y2K fixes introduced new errors. The National Federation of Independent Business cites a recent survey that Y2K already hit one in 20 small businesses. Most glitches were fixed quickly, the federation said.

According to the Gartner Group, 30 percent of all failures will have occurred before 2000. And problems, growing steadily each quarter, will peak early in the new year. But they won't completely disappear until after 2001.

``Systems only fail when transactions are run,'' said Lou Marcoccio, Gartner's research director.

For example, glitches may arise when businesses finish their first billing cycle of the new year. That could happen anytime in January for monthly billing, or later for less frequent billing.

Some computers will also have to generate monthly, quarterly and annual reports, leaving room for problems later in the year.

Related Information From Hoover's Inc. Gartner Group

http://www.nytimes.com/partners/quote/hoovers.cgi?ticker=IT

---

Air Force To Close Some Web Sites

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 2:41 a.m. EST
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/a/AP-Y2K-Military-Web-Sites.html
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2562878553-59f

DAYTON, Ohio (AP) -- Fearing attacks by computer hackers, some Air Force bases plan to block access to their public World Wide Web sites over the New Year's weekend, officials say.

Others bases have been asked to consider closing down their sites temporarily.

``Each one of the Web masters were told they might want to consider any vulnerabilities,'' Maj. John Anderson, an Air Force spokesman at the Pentagon, said Monday. For some, he said, that means blocking access at a prime time for Internet pranks.

Timothy Conley, deputy director of the 88th Communications Group at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, estimates there are about 30 public Web sites maintained at the base -- from pages for the United States Air Force Museum to the Air Force Institute of Technology.

The concern, he said, is that hackers emboldened by widespread Y2K computer concerns could insert viruses that would alter or destroy information on the sites.

``We feel they may plant some things on servers or e-mail that might go off after (Jan. 1),'' Conley said.

He said there is no threat to national security because the public-access sites are separated from secure sites, which will remain operational.

The Pentagon's main Web site should stay operational over the weekend, said spokeswoman Susan Hansen. Even so, officials there have voiced concern about attacks from cyberspace, and say special precautions will be taken.

Each of the military services has its own network monitoring stations, and a centralized Pentagon network monitoring system has been set up in Arlington, Va.

Jim Neighbors, manager of the Air Force's Y2K program, said any attacks on the Air Force sites would amount to a nuisance.

``I liken it to somebody going in and defacing a wall with a can of spray paint,'' he said.

---

U.S. Is Set to Monitor the Clock Shift From a Central Office

New York Times December 28, 1999 By MARC LACEY
http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/yr/mo/biztech/articles/28y2k-bunker.html

WASHINGTON, Dec. 27 -- It does not resemble a bunker. Its computers have suffered the same routine glitches that computers do in every other office suite. But as the millennium approaches, two floors of a nondescript building near the White House have been transformed into command central for the federal government's response to Year 2000-related emergencies.

The Information Coordination Center, as it is officially known, will open for business on Tuesday morning. It will begin 24-hour operations on Thursday. By the time midnight arrives on Dec. 31, as many as 200 government bureaucrats will be in place on the 8th and 10th floors of 1800 G Street, along with scores of journalists, industry representatives and others.

If all goes according to plan, details of a sudden power failure in Bangladesh would flash across the computer screen of John A. Koskinen, who is President Clinton's Year 2000 coordinator, as would news of a run on automated teller machines in Bangor, Me. Cots are available in the center for naps. Coffee will be brewing at noon and night. Mr. Koskinen will provide media briefings from the center, and he will talk with Vice President Al Gore, who has been designated the White House contact, on a secure line.

Is there a button Mr. Koskinen can push to start the A.T.M.'s working in Maine? No, the command center's goal is not to fix Year 2000 problems, but to gather information about such glitches and help coordinate the government's response.

From the outside, the 12-story building is run of the mill for downtown Washington. Owned by private investors, it houses the Veterans Affairs Department on three floors and the World Bank on another three. Until recently, the headquarters of the Secret Service was there.

Concerned about security, government officials refuse to describe exactly what devices the command center contains. But a tour today revealed a vast expanse of computers, walls of glass creating a futuristic command center look, and large TV monitors and world maps.

In case the lights go out, the building has two generators in the basement and a third one that had been installed for the Secret Service. The building is also equipped with a system to keep computers running if the power is interrupted, said Robert E. Carl, the building manager.

Creating the center cost about $30 million, officials said. Operating it until June, the date officials expect to wrap up their work, will bring the total cost to about $50 million.

But the expense is necessary, Mr. Koskinen said. Although government command centers exist in the White House, the Pentagon and numerous other departments and agencies, none were appropriate for this unique situation, Mr. Koskinen said.

"There was no other place in the government that was geared up to handle this volume of information," said Mr. Koskinen, who considers the Year 2000 conversion the greatest information processing exercise since World War II.

A typical hurricane only concerns a handful of states, Mr. Koskinen explained. Even the bombing campaign in Kosovo was centered on a specific region, he noted.

In contrast, the date rollover could cause problems anywhere in the world. The command center will receive reports, filtered through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, from similar command centers set up in every state. The center will also gather data from Year 2000 coordinators in 180 countries worldwide. Embassies and military bases will also forward updates.

A test of the computer system at the command center about a month ago disclosed some glitches. But the computers passed a follow-up test.

After a New Year's Eve trip to New York City to reassure the public that airplanes are up and running, Mr. Koskinen plans to spend most of his waking hours, and perhaps some of his sleeping ones, at the center. Despite the expense and work of putting it all together, he said he would be pleased if it did not turn into a beehive of activity.

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State's Crisis Officials Will Ring In 2000 Underground

New York Times December 28, 1999 By ANDREW C. REVKIN
http://www.nytimes.com/99/12/28/news/national/regional/ny-emergency-2000.html

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ALBANY, Dec. 23 -- When New York City's crisis managers convene to track any chaos attending the arrival of the Year 2000, they will ride express elevators from the paneled lobby of 7 World Trade Center to the 23rd floor of the black glass tower. Officials outside the central control room of the city's emergency operations center there will have striking views of New York Harbor and Lower Manhattan.

When New York State's emergency management team convenes on the same day here, the officials will clank down cement stairs, pass under a foot-thick steel hatch held up by hydraulic pistons, and go to work deep in an artificial hill on the outskirts of town. Views? Forget about it.

Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani's $13 million emergency operations center may have gained the nickname "bunker" when it opened last February, but the state's real bunker belongs to Gov. George E. Pataki. The state's command post for emergencies sits in a 40-year-old 2-level bomb shelter built during the prime cold war years as the post-nuclear seat of state government.

The shelter was designed to house 400 people for two weeks. It has three generators, its own water supply, air filters and only two entrances: the hatch on top and a 200-foot tunnel out one side that resembles an escape route for James Bond.

The ranks of bunks, two operating rooms and commissary are long gone, with the lower of two subterranean floors now housing temporary offices of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. There, claims are still being processed from the state's recent string of natural disasters, ranging from Tropical Storm Floyd back to the midwinter flash floods of January 1996.

In the last four years, the state's Emergency Management Office, spending about $1 million, has given a technological makeover to the upper floor of the bunker, adding banks of computers, telephones and radios and wall-size flat-screen displays for computer-generated maps of weather, roads, hospital locations and other information.

"We've been able to take a facility with one purpose and move it into the new millennium," said Edward F. Jacoby Jr., the director of the state emergency agency, who will supervise 150 people working around the clock to field and respond to emergency calls through the first days of the new year.

"We're ready for just about anything," he said.

Mr. Jacoby's windowless underground office, decorated with a bouquet of plastic flowers, would be turned over to Governor Pataki should serious trouble erupt.

The old role of bomb shelter faded in the late 1980's, along with the Soviet threat, Mr. Jacoby said as he gave a tour of the buried building.

Since then, he said, it has increasingly taken on the role of command post for monitoring and responding to "any risk, any hazard, any time, any place."

And the state has seen all manner of crisis recently, with 12 federal disaster declarations in the last five years, he said. "They've been just about anything you can imagine," he said, ranging from blizzards to tropical storms to raging forest fires.

The building, built during the era of Mercury space shots, is still being refitted.

One week before New Year's Eve, a technician was hard at work behind a bank of new servers, each covered with pulsing green lights. Nearby, the central control room was nearly empty, with ranks of computer screens displaying nothing but the agency logo.

In a few days, they would spring to life, displaying status reports or incoming messages on any incidents from Buffalo to Montauk.

"Part of the challenge is this state is so huge," Mr. Jacoby said. Each county is expected to be in constant touch throughout the New Year's weekend, he said.

On New Year's Eve, the small kitchen near the central operations room will be taken over by the caterers who supply food to the State Police Academy next door.

The menu for the New Year's dinner has already been set, said Dennis J. Michalski, a spokesman for the emergency agency: sirloin beef tips Burgundy over noodles or baked cod with seafood topping, followed by assorted pies and cakes.

The menu is about the only thing about New Year's Eve that is certain, Mr. Jacoby said. For the rest, he said, "We'll just have to wait and see, and be prepared."

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Seattle Cancels Y2K Celebration

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 11:33 a.m. EST http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/a/AP-MIL-Countdown-Canceled.html
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/late/27seattle.html

SEATTLE (AP) -- The mayor has canceled the city's New Year's Eve celebration in the park below its landmark Space Needle, citing the possibility of terrorist acts in a city rattled by demonstrations and a border arrest.

``It is safer to be prudent,'' Mayor Paul Schell said Monday. ``This is already an unprecedented, unpredictable New Year's, and we did not want to take chances with public safety, no matter how remote the threat might seem.''

International media coverage of the event makes it ``impossible for federal officials to rule out the area as a terrorist target,'' he said.

However, the mayor said federal officials have not advised him of any specific threat.

The city's nerves were strained in recent weeks by the sometimes violent protests during the World Trade Organization conference. Both Schell and Police Chief Norm Stamper came under fire for their handling of the demonstrations. Stamper later announced that he will resign.

And on Dec. 14, an Algerian man was arrested at Port Angeles and charged with smuggling nitroglycerin and other explosive materials across the border from Canada. Investigators said Ahmed Resssam had reserved a motel room near the Space Needle.

An estimated 50,000 people had been expected to gather in the 75-acre Seattle Center park below the Needle, located near the city's downtown. The 605-foot landmark, built for the 1962 World's Fair, has become a traditional gathering point for New Year's Eve revelers.

Afternoon concerts and a circus performance will take place as planned Friday, and fireworks -- the centerpiece of the millennium party -- will still pour from the Needle at midnight. But the center will be cleared of people and the gates locked at 6 p.m., the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reported today.

Only a private party in the restaurant at the top of the Needle will be allowed, he said. The restaurant had been reserved more than four years ago.

Schell's decision is the latest in a string of moves to scale back the city's once grand ambitions for the event.

A plan to set aflame 14 giant wood-and-papier-mache sculptures -- part of a $120,000 project -- was canceled last Wednesday, while the mayor's plan to cover nine bridges and four parks in colored lights was scaled back to just one bridge because of cash shortages.

The city pulled the plug on the fire sculptures after officials decided the large blazes would be inappropriate in light of the fears of terrorism.

Artist Carl Smool questioned what he called the ``school marm-ish'' decision.

``Are we that paranoid that we really think there's some right-wing Armageddon conspiracy?'' Smool asked.

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Suez Canal Requires Y2K Certificate

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 9:50 a.m. EST
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Y2K-Suez-Canal.html

PORT SAID, Egypt (AP) -- Every ship that wants to cross the Suez Canal on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1 should have a certificate proving its computers are Y2K compliant, otherwise its captain will have to operate it manually, the head of navigation at Port Said harbor said Tuesday.

Hussein Basiouny added that the canal's authority is ready to deal with any problem that might occur, and that teams of guides will be on hand to help.

He said ships movements will be scheduled earlier as part of Y2K planning.

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Australians Marking 3 New Year's

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 10:48 a.m. EST http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Australia-Triple-Midnight.html

SYDNEY, Australia (AP) -- Party, party, party!

New Year's Eve celebrations at Cameron's Corner, a remote settlement in Australia's Outback, will be in triplicate, the local bar owner said Tuesday.

The tiny village about 740 miles northwest of Sydney straddles three state boundaries, meaning it will witness the end of the old and the start of the new millennium not once, not twice, but three times in the space of just one hour and one minute.

Cameron's Corner's usual population -- four -- is expected to swell to around 1,000 on Dec. 31 as revelers seeking a millennium party venue with a difference head to the only spot in Australia where three states and three different time zones meet.

The celebrations will begin in New South Wales, where partygoers will toast the New Year at midnight, or 8 a.m. EST.

Half an hour later, they will walk a few yards to South Australia, which is 30 minutes behind New South Wales, to repeat the process. After another 30 minutes they will walk -- or possibly stagger -- into Queensland, which is a full hour behind New South Wales.

``We've had people ringing us from Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane, Newcastle, Canberra, Broken Hill, Mildura -- from everywhere,'' local bar owner Lindy Williams said.

Williams said the huge level of interest had taken her by surprise, with transportable bars and toilets having to be brought in to cope with the crowd, as well as three lots of fireworks.

``I didn't expect it, I didn't think anyone would want to come out here, but we decided to give everyone a good time,'' she said.

Pride of place on the night will be a seat on the post which marks the intersection of the three borders, which will be auctioned off to raise money for Australia's Royal Flying Doctor Service.

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Cult Center Braces Itself for Y2K

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 3:46 a.m. EST
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/a/AP-MIL-Cult-Center.html

ALBANY, Ohio (AP) -- After quietly existing deep in southeast Ohio's Appalachian foothills for 14 years, a treatment center for former cult members anticipates that the year 2000 could be a busy one.

The Wellspring Retreat and Resource Center, which bills itself as the nation's only live onsite counseling center for recovering cult victims, expects cultists disillusioned by unfulfilled millennial prophecies to soon dot its client list.

``It could be an interesting year,'' said founder Paul Martin, a psychologist and former cult member. ``There won't be some quantum shift in the need for our services, but there could be a lot of failed prophecy after this event.''

And that, he said, ``could lead to cult members questioning their leaders and possibly leaving.''

Already, the staff -- composed mostly of former cult followers -- has lined up more than 75 clients to treat in 2000, compared with about 50 seen in 1999, said Liz Shaw, an outreach coordinator.

Many cult leaders have predicted the return of Jesus Christ, the apocalypse and mass deaths with the turn of the century.

Members of Concerned Christians, a Denver-based group, were expelled from Athens, Greece, earlier this month and went missing amid fears the group was planning to mark 2000 with a mass suicide. The group's leader, Monte Kim Miller, has said he would die in the streets of Jerusalem this month and be resurrected three days later.

Relatives of Miller's followers fear that when the apocalypse doesn't arrive, he will create the scenario for his own martyrdom and take his flock -- which includes infants, his 10-year-old son and a 69-year-old woman -- with him.

In October, Israel expelled more than a dozen Americans believed to be part of doomsday cults. The Americans are suspected of planning events they maintain would bring about the second coming of Christ at the Mount of Olives, where Christians believe Jesus will return.

``I will be dumbfounded if there isn't some sort of millennial cult-related tragedy,'' said Larry Pile, a Wellspring counselor and cult researcher.

Wellspring counselors recall that the center's admissions went up slightly after 39 members of the Heaven's Gate cult committed suicide in conjunction with the passing of the Hale-Bopp comet in 1997.

Said to be the worst mass suicide on U.S. soil, the cult members were found in a Southern California home dressed in black with ``Away Team'' patches, Nike tennis shoes, purple shrouds and plastic bags over their heads. They left behind a video saying they were shedding their ``earthly containers'' to join a spaceship trailing the comet.

Wellspring is the only counseling facility recommended by the Christian Research Institute, a cult education group based in Rancho Santa Margarita, Calif., said Sam Wall, a researcher there.

``They're the only organization that has met what we believe to be the right approaches in therapy,'' he said. ``And we'll still send people there, even if they do have more clients.''

Eric Falstrom said he sought treatment at the center, about 65 miles southeast of Columbus, after spending 1 1/2 years in a nomadic cult called The Brethren, and 6 1/2 more trying to rebuild his life.

Falstrom stayed at Wellspring in March 1998 for two weeks, attending the center's private counseling sessions and workshops to learn why and how he became part of a mind-controlling group.

``That experience enabled me to see through the brothers' twisted beliefs and understand what happened to me,'' said Falstrom, 29, from his Cincinnati home. ``I felt for the first time ever that someone really understood what I went through, what I was going through.''

Before Wellspring, Falstrom was so depressed that he couldn't leave his home, let alone hold a job or return to college. Now he is finishing an art degree, has a part-time job and has joined a traditional church vastly different from The Brethren.

Wellspring claims success with most of its more than 500 former clients, and says only five have returned to cults.

``You just can't bat a thousand every time,'' Martin said.

Nor, he said, can Wellspring affect more than a fraction of the 2 1/2 million Americans he and the Christian Research Institute estimate are part of cults.

``It's pathetic, so very pathetic,'' Martin said. With a tight budget and a small staff, ``we're a little outgunned and trying to battle a major societal problem. All we can do is help one person at a time.''

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Poland Warns Against Y2K Hoarding

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 10:38 a.m. EST
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Y2K-Poland.html

WARSAW, Poland (AP) -- Officials in Poland warned Tuesday that residents hoarding supplies for fear of Y2K problems may create more trouble than the computer glitch itself.

Warsaw Mayor Antoni Pietkiewicz told a news conference that all public services are prepared to swiftly counter any Y2K problems and appealed to Warsaw region residents to act ``normal'' on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day to prevent unnecessary problems.

The Y2K computer glitch could cause older computers to shutdown because they could confuse the date ``00'' for 1900, instead of 2000.

Pietkiewicz warned that stocking up on water could produce shortages, and long phone calls with New Year's wishes could block phone lines and provoke problems unrelated to computer systems.

Konstanty Fiodorow, deputy head of Warsaw's energy and heating plants, said there is ``some degree of danger'' of failures in power supplies but ``it has been brought to a minimum'' through monitoring and computer upgrades.

Poland is among more than 60 countries ranked in the middle ground for Y2K risks, according to International Monitoring, a technology consulting group based in Britain. It based its ratings on the risk of disruptions in a given country's power, telecommunications, finance and transportation infrastructures.

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Muslims Warned Against 2000 Parties

Associated Press December 28, 1999 Filed at 11:12 a.m. EST
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Saudi-Celebration-Ban.html

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) -- A senior Saudi cleric warned Muslims Tuesday against celebrating the new millennium or the new year.

``Celebrating the holidays of the infidels is not allowed, even if its out of courtesy, because they are not holidays that Allah revealed,'' said Sheik Abdullah bin Jabrain, a member of the Saudi Ifta, or Islamic legal committee.

He said the new year holiday was not mentioned in Islam's holy book, the Koran, or any of the other holy books and it was created by ``Christians who legalized what Allah did not sanction.''

``Muslims are forbidden from glorifying these days, congratulating those who follow them and showing any form of happiness or joy which would recognize this heresy,'' he said.

He said that celebrations should be limited to Muslim holidays like Eid el-Fitr, wh